Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins has options — and the Vikings need a quarterback succession plan

Updated Mar. 9, 2024 1:29 p.m. ET

For as much has been made of this year's quarterback draft class, the free-agent class could be just as intriguing.

Even with the Denver Broncos releasing Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield waiting for a new deal, Kirk Cousins headlines this year's class. He is the first domino that needs to fall before all the others, even the rookies.

Cousins falling back into familiar territory in Minnesota seems less and less likely the closer we get to free agency. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell spoke candidly to Rich Eisen on NFL Network during the combine about where things stood with Cousins.

"The combine just gave everybody else an opportunity, whether they're supposed to be or not, to maybe have some conversations," O'Connell said. "But I've been having the dialogue that you have with a player like Kirk Cousins; the relationship we've built up over a long period of time. I know Kirk, where he's at in this whole process. He's earned the right to be a free agent."

Becoming a free agent puts the writing on the wall for Cousins' tenure with the Vikings in more than one way. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will likely give Cousins a best-and-final offer prior to the March 13 opening of free agency. If Cousins doesn't take it, it's likely because he and agent Mike McCartney think they can get more guaranteed money elsewhere.

Remember that Cousins is coming off two straight fully guaranteed contracts with the Vikings. O'Connell himself said he's expecting multiple suitors for Cousins, even coming off what's widely regarded as a career-inhibiting injury in an Achilles tear at the age of 35.

The Atlanta Falcons have been strongly linked to Cousins and those whispers only got louder in Indianapolis. The Raiders, Broncos, Steelers and Patriots are all in need of a quarterback —and all likely to have interest in Cousins. That's not counting teams like the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, likely to take quarterbacks in the draft. Cousins has every incentive to hit free agency.

There's another reason Cousins being left to hit free agency is a death sentence for his time as a Viking — and it has nothing to do with a bidding war. Cousins restructured his deal last offseason. The deal voids on March 13, the start of the new league year, and it dictates that if the Vikings want to keep Cousins, they have to re-sign him before that date to avoid a $28.5 million dead-cap overlay.

It means Minnesota could still technically re-sign him after March 13, but they'll have to factor in that figure before they get to his new deal. That severely limits their offer, and their leverage.

So where does that leave Adofo-Mensah and his staff? Where does it leave O'Connell? The Vikings don't have a succession plan yet.

They do, however, have the No. 11 pick. They have eight selections after that. Minnesota also has over $41 million in cap space. They have resources. The question now becomes how much of that stockpile Adofo-Mensah is willing to use to get their guy.

Where will Kirk Cousins sign in free agency?

Picking at No. 11 puts them out of the running for one of the top three quarterbacks in Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye — though they could forfeit some of that capital to move up. Reports emerged much later that Mensah and his staff tried to move up last year, when they had significantly less capital, to get C.J. Stroud. Boy, would that have altered this entire sequence of events.

If Minnesota was willing to part with capital when they didn't have much of it, you'd have to think they'll be willing again with a blank slate at the position — if they believe in a prospect. Yesterday's price is not today's price, though.

The Vikings owe wide receiver Justin Jefferson a market-setting, earth-shattering deal. Danielle Hunter is set to hit free agency and was one of their best players in 2023. Cap space disappears quickly when blue-chip talent is up. That likely hinders what they could offer a veteran free agent quarterback, unless they decide to take a chance on Wilson after this Denver debacle.

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Minnesota could move up and get a top rookie quarterback, sign a free agent bridge quarterback for cheap or take a quarterback with the No. 11 pick. That relegates them to the likes of J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., but with a staff full of former quarterbacks and an offense full of talent, maybe that's all the Vikings need.

Minnesota doesn't have a succession plan. But that doesn't mean they can't get one together. They're likely going to need it.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.