Lombardi Ave Picks 2016: National Football League Week 14 roundup
Dec 11, 2016; Green Bay, WS, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jeff Janis (83) does a Lambeau Leap after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Green Bay Packers host the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field. Mandatory credit: Adam Wesley/Green Bay Press Gazette via USA TODAY NETWORK
Week 14 of the NFL season was an exciting affair, especially for the playoff races in each conference.
In the AFC, we saw some key losses throw what was assumed by many to be an AFC North runaway for the wild-card spots become much more contested. The NFC brought us wins for basically all the teams vying for their own wild card chances.
Here’s how our Lombardi Ave writers did this week with our game picks; analysis of what happened shall follow:
| Away Team | OAK | PIT | DEN | WAS | ARI | SD | CIN | CHI | HOU | MIN | NYJ | NO | ATL | SEA | DAL | BAL |
| Home Team | KC | BUF | TEN | PHI | MIA | CAR | CLE | DET | IND | JAX | SF | TB | LAR | GB | NYG | NE |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brad | KC | PIT | DEN | WAS | ARI | SD | CIN | DET | IND | MIN | NYJ | TB | ATL | SEA | DAL | NE |
| Josh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kenn | KC | PIT | DEN | WAS | MIA | SD | CIN | DET | IND | MIN | NYJ | TB | ATL | SEA | DAL | NE |
| Thomas | OAK | PIT | DEN | WAS | MIA | CAR | CIN | DET | IND | MIN | SF | TB | ATL | GB | DAL | NE |
What We Got Right
Games we correctly agreed upon
Pittsburgh-Buffalo
The ending score depicts the ending most may have had in mind here, but the way these teams got there was massively off-kilter.
This was truly the Le’Veon Bell show for Pittsburgh. Bell got an absurd 42 touches (38 on the ground), picking up 236 rushing yards and another 62 through the air; with those, he threw in three short TD runs. In this, Bell had eight rushes of at least 10 yards and a catch over 15 yards.
Of anybody on the team, this man is what makes the Steelers such a dangerous offense. Even with Roethlisberger off all afternoon (17/31 passes completed, 3 INTs) and Antonio Brown mostly neutralized due to that, Bell carried the team to victory.
Buffalo was able to make this into a close contest towards the end despite a 24-7 deficit. They scored a couple touchdowns on 75+ yard drives which took up under 5 minutes combined, but it was too little too late due to their issues beforehand. Offensively, they punted six times and Tyrod Taylor threw away a possession with an INT in the drives before the final two TDs. Defensively, they gave up over 300 yards to a non-quarterback.
With the win, the Steelers are in the driver’s seat for the AFC North crown. Outside of a game against the Ravens (one which likely decides the division), they are well-set to win most of what remains on their schedule.
With the loss, Buffalo is almost entirely finished. They do have a schedule which they could win out on from here, but 9-7 likely isn’t enough to make the playoffs this time around. If they can’t the supposed rumors about Rex Ryan losing his job seem destined to come to fruition — deserved or not.
Washington-Philadelphia
Washington has recently had a stranglehold on this matchup; with their victory here, they’ve picked up five straight wins between the teams. With the team looking much better than Philadelphia of late, it seemed likely they would add that fifth one before things even started.
It wasn’t quite that easy, however.
Dec 11, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. The Redskins defeated the Eagles, 27-22. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Washington found themselves facing multiple deficits in this contest. They were down 6-0 before the game’s first touchdown. They went into the half down 13-7 after Philadelphia answered. They were up 21-13 early in the fourth, but following a pick-six/punt/field goal chain of events, they were down 22-21 with only five minutes remaining in the game. A final touchdown drive gave them the eventual game-ending box score, but it took a fumble from Carson Wentz at the Washington 14 to seal the victory.
Washington did not look impressive for most of the day, but being able to win a game like this bodes well for their postseason hopes. Many games find teams having to work through rough self-inflicted circumstances; often, those teams succumb to the situation. Washington did not, and have made a decent habit of not being taken down by their mistakes. It definitely helps to have a quarterback who has shown a decent ability to make the necessary plays to win, one of the league’s deepest receiving corps, and a running game finally giving them some balance.
Washington has only winnable games remaining in their playoff push. Carolina has been nothing like its 2015 version, Chicago is a wreck, and they’ve already beaten a Giants team which has only managed to beat the lowly Browns by more than a score during their nine wins. Winning all three almost guarantees the playoffs for them (if Tampa Bay wins out and the Giants win their two non-Washington games however, they won’t get in), but a single loss could seal their fate to watching from home.
That tie will likely loom large. 10-5-1 will give them an edge over the Giants if they lose twice and/or the Buccaneers if they lose once; 9-6-1 forces either of those two to lose an additional time, as well as hope Green Bay doesn’t win out or Detroit loses their final three games.
Gonna be an exciting final few weeks for them, with many possible endings in sight.
Cincinnati-Cleveland
One of multiple games that is meaningless in terms of the playoffs, but has some meaning for the participants nonetheless. Cleveland still was looking to grab their first win of 2016, preventing them from becoming the second-ever 0-16 outfit; Cincinnati wanted to not be that lone positive mark for them, while trying to end a rotten season with some wins.
The latter managed to bring about their hopes with relative ease. The Bengals jumped out to a 20-0 lead following touchdowns on their first two drives and a touchdown after an INT of the returning-from-injury Robert Griffin III. Andy Dalton tossed a couple touchdowns to Tyler Eifert, Jeremy Hill ground out 111 yards on the ground and his own TD, and their defense gave little to Cleveland when the game was in question.
For Cleveland, it’s all about the little things. Joe Thomas continues to be one of the league’s better left tackles. Jonathan Cooper had a decent game at guard and could be someone to watch for future years that came in cheaply. The Browns’ defensive line had multiple decent contributors including Emmanuel Ogbah and Cam Johnson. That’s about it though, as pretty much the rest of the team is either stopgap veterans or guys too young to get a real gauge on — especially on a team clearly constructed not to seriously compete for multiple years.
Chicago-Detroit
Detroit had everything to lose here. Not getting a win would take away their best chance for one in a tough closing schedule. Not playing well against a three-win Bears team would damage their perception as a legitimate contender. Coming away with a key injury would further damage their hopes to actually clinch the division and/or make the playoffs at all.
We were a couple late penalties away from all of that becoming true.
Matthew Stafford tossed two interceptions in yet another close game for Detroit — the second of which went back for a pick-six. As they’ve been wont to do in 2016 however, Detroit responded when it mattered most with their own TD, taking the lead again at 20-17.
Chicago had plenty of time left and slowly drove down the field. They got into Detroit territory, but then the penalties destroyed them. On a first down, Matt Barkley hit Cameron Meredith for 27 yards; it came back due to a hold. Now on 1st and 20, again Barkley found someone deep, hitting Daniel Braverman for 23 yards; that too came back on a hold. A drive that had them at the Detroit 43 was now back on the Chicago 37, with 30 yards needed for a 1st down as if this had become a game of old-school NFL Blitz. Obviously, the drive petered out, giving the Lions a win.
Games like this is what makes Detroit such a conundrum. They rarely look all that great when they play, and both their box score and advanced statistics rarely are all that exceptional for them. Much like the Giants, they will play a team like Chicago just as closely as they might Washington. They are simultaneously hard to believe in or to bet against.
They did make the plays to win their most winnable remaining game, but they nearly lost a second time in 2016 to this Bears team. Oh, and Matt Stafford came away with a hand injury; he made plays despite it, but it has to be a worrisome factor with games against Dallas, the Giants, and Green Bay remaining.
At this point, anything they do wouldn’t surprise me in the least now. They could win these final games, giving themselves the #2 seed in the NFC with these same sort of frustrating last-minute victories. They could lose them all, having that close-game luck flip on them at the worst possible time. Most likely, it seems like they’ll be fighting Green Bay for the #4 seed in Week 17; even two road losses the next two games leaves them at 9-6 against an at-best 9-6 Packers team. We’ll just have to wait and see if they can keep their seemingly unsustainable model can get them into this year’s playoffs.
Minnesota-Jacksonville
Ugly showing from both sides, but Minnesota came away with a much-needed win.
Until the final four minutes of the third quarter, all we saw were field goals on both sides. Minnesota used four of them to hold the lead until that point, but Jacksonville broke through on a 90 yard drive to go up 16-12. Minnesota responded there, but couldn’t put away the Jaguars until the end. With an 18-16 lead, the Vikings proceeded to fumble on the goal-line the next time they had the ball; lucky for them, they have a defense able to make up for that. A quick punt from Jacksonville became Minnesota’s second touchdown, and they held on to block a field goal and win 25-16.
While they fell into a 1-6 slump after a 5-0 start, it was this sort of dominant effort from their defensive guys which has given them the majority of their success this season. Unlike a team like Detroit, the dominance has been against practically all their opponents, keeping the games close and hoping the offense can make up for it. It did in the beginning, but hadn’t much recently. Versus a two-win Jacksonville team led by turnover-machine Blake Bortles though, that should have been and was enough to make it out with the win.
Somehow, even with that defined defensive prowess, I haven’t been able to believe in this team all year — and not because I am a Packers fan. For them, offense is something they survive in spite of. The runners have done next to nothing most of the year (as evidenced by their #32 Run Offense DVOA for most of the season), and they continue to have faith in a guy in Matt Asiata who’s proven for his entire career to have the 3-yards-per-carry mark be a barrier he must struggle mightily just to achieve. The offensive line (especially T.J. Clemmings) has made a living letting Sam Bradford get mutilated even in victory (when they aren’t getting injured). The receivers have some good elements (Stefon Diggs is a beast, Kyle Rudolph is a good receiving tight end, Adam Thielen is a nice role player) and Bradford can do well with time and short throws, but the former occurs sporadically at best while the latter caps their ability to spread defenses deep or make comeback attempts.
Still, that defense cannot be overlooked, and it will almost always give them opportunities to win. Though I do think Green Bay can beat them in the upcoming Week 16 rematch, a game resembling the Week 2 contest to them should be expected.
New Orleans-Tampa Bay
For seemingly forever, Tampa Bay has been a team that many seem to expect to surprise us; each time, they’ve fallen well short. This time, it is really, truly, different!
In prior years, we would see Tampa Bay come into this sort of game and drop an egg. Drew Brees would blow away their seemingly-improved defense, Jameis Winston would toss multiple interceptions, and a blowout would tear away the facade for the Bucs.
Dec 11, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) runs with the ball in the second half against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the New Orleans Saints 16-11. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
We saw basically the opposite. Brees tossed three INTs as the Saints struggled to even reach double-digits in points. Winston was decently efficient and turnover-free.
Due to the defensive showing from each side, this stayed close throughout. Tampa Bay had 13 of their 16 in the first half, 10 of which came in a TD/INT/FG sequence of drives from the middle of the first quarter into the middle of the second. New Orleans fought back with two field goals bracketing a safety before the half, and added another to get to 13-11 towards the end of the third quarter.
It was all Tampa Bay from there though. A field goal was followed by Brees’ 2nd INT, with his 3rd ending the Saints’ final hopes with under a minute remaining.
Tampa Bay finally is that legitimate playoff contender they had been erroneously anointed as for 6 seasons running. The defense is top-10 in terms of Defensive DVOA, and are tied for the league lead in turnovers forced (25). Their formerly turnover-prone offense has cut back a bit on them — especially during their five-game winning streak — and the team ranks #7 in giveaway/takeaway ratio.
They have contributors on every side of the ball now too. The offense has Winston playing his best ball yet, Mike Evans cutting away his drop problems to definitively become one of the league’s best receivers (#1 by Pro Football Focus’ grades, in fact), Cameron Brate is a nice tight end option, and the Doug Martin/Charles Sims/Jacquizz Rodgers trio has taken turns across 2016 being effective. The defense has players young (Bradley McDougald, Kwon Alexander, Noah Spence) and old (Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy, Robert Ayers, Lavonte David) holding key roles and being effective.
The closing stretch seems to have at least one loss for them (Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina), but 10-6 is likely to be enough to take one of the wild card slots in the NFC. If they do win out, they may even pick up the NFC South division crown. For sure though, few teams will want to take on a team like this, one which has physical advantages at multiple spots and is playing their best at the right time.
Atlanta-Los Angeles
A blowout that would have likely gotten much more attention if not for Green Bay’s own impressive showing.
The Rams weren’t great (or even competitive) competition, but to dominate a team it the fashion the Falcons did is worth taking note of. Matt Ryan tossed 3 TDs in an assortment of ways: short (Justin Hardy), deep (Taylor Gabriel), dumpoff (Tevin Coleman). This was almost matched by the defense: two of the three turnovers they forced went right in the endzone.
In the end, the Falcons saw their win probability never fall below the 74.6% they opened the contest with, sitting with at least 97.3% for the final 38 minutes of the game.
Vic Beasley continued his impressive sophomore season in the league, adding in 3 more sacks and an INT; he now sits tied atop the league lead for sacks on the year (13.5), giving the Falcons the sort of defensive menace which can make up for the errors and underwhelming play elsewhere on the unit. We see in Oakland how this can really change a team; even as that defense sits around the bottom half of the league in Defensive DVOA, they have at least one guy who can break through double- and triple-teams to impose his will on the opposition. With the loss of Desmond Trufant for the year a couple weeks back, Atlanta direly needs that sort of impact from someone — Beasley is proving to be exactly that.
A note on the Rams: just a week after there were rumors of a Jeff Fisher contract extension, he gets fired in the midst of yet another terrible showing from his team. Didn’t really need to be made right now — rarely do midseason changes have a positive effect beyond the first couple games — but it had to be made at some point before next year. I don’t have much expectation that the Rams will make the right coaching choice regardless, but anything has to be better than what they did with him at the helm, and they couldn’t conceivably hope to keep their new fan base around in sunny Los Angeles without at least making it appear they were attempting to do something about their massive shortcomings.
Baltimore-New England
Dec 12, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shouts to the sideline
during the first half of a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
As these teams tend to do, we got an entertaining game from them.
New England got a big early lead through a strange series of events. First, they forced a safety on the Ravens’ second drive. Then, they picked up a long touchdown drive following a blocked field goal. Another touchdown came soon after, with a Ravens’ field goal putting the score at 16-3 at the half. That would rise to 23-3 on the Patriots’ first drive of the second half.
At that point, everything shifted in favor of the Ravens. A punt was fumbled by the Patriots; Baltimore recovers, turns it into a quick touchdown two plays later. On the next kickoff, New England fumbles again; Baltimore recovers that too, turning it into a second quick touchdown. After a few punts, Baltimore goes to score a field goal; now, that 23-3 lead is just 23-20 with 6:28 remaining.
Here, we saw the switch flip right back the New England for the end. They wasted zero time, taking the first play from scrimmage deep for a 79 yard touchdown from Brady to Chris Hogan. Baltimore would score another field goal, but they didn’t manage to get the necessary onside kick, ending the contest 30-23 in favor of New England.
Brady had himself a strong game, with his 3 TD passes getting him to 450 in his career — only the 4th quarterback to achieve that milestone. Even without Rob Gronkowski, this team still has a bevy of weapons through the air (Martellus Bennett is a damn good fallback option; Malcolm Mitchell is a nice young receiver; Julian Edelman is still a better Cole Beasley at worst) and on the ground (the LaGarrette Blount/James White/Dion Lewis is multifaceted and difficult to plan against), and Brady makes it all come together so well.
The Ravens may have lost here, but they are still well within the conversation for the playoffs. They could definitely win out from here behind the efforts of their defense, and the offense has found more consistency (in spurts, but still a major improvement over where they were) the past few games. They have guys like the indomitable Steve Smith for Joe Flacco to throw to, and really showed off a gameplan around spreading it to tons of different options (against New England, eight different guys caught at least three passes).
Only one of their remaining opponents has a winning record, and they already manhandled that team (Pittsburgh) earlier in the year. Keep watch on them; their potential playoff opponents surely are.
Dec 11, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee TItans players celebrate after recovering a fumble by Denver Broncos tight end A.J. Derby (83) late in the fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium. The Titans won 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
What We Got Wrong
Games we got incorrect across the board
Denver-Tennessee
Going in, this felt like it would follow the same basic formula these two teams have followed in 2016: Tennessee would have a disappointing loss after getting a win (a trend going since they beat Cleveland to reach 3-3), while Denver would dominate defensively while having their offense put up a decent chunk of points.
Well, the points didn’t come much for either team — and this time Denver was on the wrong side of a slugfest.
After giving up an early touchdown and then a field goal, the Broncos held fast for the rest of the game, allowing just three more points to Tennessee while holding Marcus Mariota under 100 yards through the air. It didn’t end up mattering; Denver’s offense couldn’t make anything happen. Their second drive was a fumble, helping put them in a 10-0 hole. They punted five times — four while a 13-0 first half deficit was mounted. They ran out of time before the half on one drive, then saw another end on downs.
When they finally got something going, they couldn’t sustain it. A touchdown and field goal towards the end gave them just 3 points to make up, but they found themselves with just 2:26 left to drive from their own 2; they started to, but six plays in the Broncos suffered another fumble. Tennessee recovered, game over.
Denver still shouldn’t be counted out of the playoffs, but that path is treacherous and they may not be good enough to overcome it. Anyone pointing to last season needs to look deeper. That team may have been worse overall on offense, but they could run the ball better (dropped from 20th to 28th in Run Offense DVOA). Also the defense, while still dangerous, is a fraction of what it used to be; the pass rush may still be just as powerful (#1 Pass Defense DVOA both years) but the run defense has become a sieve (dropped from #4 to #28 in Run Defense DVOA). That team also sat atop the AFC most of the year and had home-field advantage because of it; this one will need to beat three 10+ win squads just to reach the wild-card round. They’ve already lost to two of their remaining opponents; the other is headed by Tom Brady. Last year’s squad was a unicorn, working against the odds to win in spite of a derelict offense; this one may have better quarterbacking, but it isn’t nearly the elite level necessary to overcome the newly-formed deficiencies which have come up beyond that spot.
Tennessee meanwhile got the sort of win they needed to still have their own playoff shot stay alive. Coming in, this and their upcoming game against the Chiefs seemed likely to be losses; even wins in the next two games would require fallout from Indianapolis and Houston to steal away the division at 8-8. With this win, they could still take the division at 9-7, but might truly need to win out; Houston took their game against Indianapolis, and with contests against Cincinnati and Jacksonville remaining before a Week 17 matchup with these Titans they might well sit at 9-6 going into that game; based on the tiebreakers, they would win the division even with a loss to Tennessee at season’s end. It may have been an impressive showing here against Denver, but without another one against Kansas City it’ll probably be for naught.
Oh and on that Harry Douglas cut-block? Legal maybe, but still dirty as hell.
Houston-Indianapolis
For any non-Texans, non-gambling fan, this probably not only felt like the week where Houston finally was dropped from atop the AFC South in favor of Andrew Luck’s Colts. Indianapolis is pretty flawed themselves, but with Luck at the helm they at least have a high-quality quarterback who can win a game through pure willpower. To counter, Houston has high-dollar awfulness in the form of Brock Osweiler. Seems like that would be enough to make the difference here, but just as happened in their first meeting, Houston managed to win yet again.
Osweiler was indeed bad (14/24, 147 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT), but he had the sort of help Luck has always been lacking. Houston was able to run the ball with ease behind Lamar Miller (107 yards, 1 TD) and Alfred Blue (55 yards), and their defense was on point, picking up 3 turnovers off Luck (2 INT, 1 Fumble). From Luck’s side, he had the usual contributions for T.Y. Hilton (9 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD), but his run game stunk again (83 total yards) and his defense couldn’t do enough to stop that rushing attack from the Texans.
Because of this, Indianapolis is pretty much finished in the playoff race. Winning out (difficult, with games against Oakland and Minnesota remaining) provides no solace; if Houston wins two of their final three, they hold the tiebreaker over the Colts since they beat them twice. Even a collapsing Houston won’t save them; they need to win out just to bring about their tiebreaker over Tennessee, and the Titans hold the scheduling advantage there (would you rather: KC/JAX/HOU or MIN/OAK/JAX?) while also being a better team. Indianapolis will be lucky to reach 8-8, while those division-mates have a great shot of 9-7 or better.
Speaking of Houston, I sorted out their playoff stuff in the past two sections; they have the best chance to get in based on their current record, the tiebreakers already set, and the easiest remaining schedule. They likely get that playoff spot as long as they handle their business at least one of these next two weeks. Hopefully they don’t though, because Tennessee would be a much more interesting matchup to watch no matter the opponent.
Dallas-New York Giants
Dec 11, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) fumbles the ball late in the fourth quarter as New York Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins (20) makes the hit at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Apparently the only way to beat the Cowboys in 2016 is by being the Giants. Only two losses on the year for this Dallas team; both have been to this New York squad.
The offenses were pretty bad for each side. Part of that was the defenses of course, but we saw open drops, errant throws, and beyond-questionable decision-making from each side.
This has been the sort of games the Giants have won all year though. Muck everything up, keep it close, and then either make the play to Odell Beckham on offense or shut down the opposing group defensively. With the score close, their highly-paid defense continues to step up. They picked off Dak Prescott twice (Leon Hall, Janoris Jenkins), and they picked up a fumble off Dez Bryant. They also grabbed three different sacks and kept Dallas off the scoreboard for their final thirteen drives.
This was the second straight week where Dallas had a poor outing, and we may be seeing defenses figure out what needs to be done to stop them. Prevent that running game from going ballistic, and it forces Prescott to shoulder more of a load than he appears ready for. Put them in third and longs, and he has to consistently hit passes against defenses which know what is coming. Not every team has the pieces to do this obviously — Minnesota has tons of speedy & strong defenders, while the Giants have a bunch of powerful run-stoppers — but the format is set. This gameplan seemed obvious (to me at least) from the start of the year, but we have at least three games of evidence now to work with beyond mere speculation and expectation. This won’t keep them out of the playoffs of course, but teams have hard proof that they can be slowed to a beatable extent.
The Giants definitely will have a decent route to facing them if they do make the playoffs (as they should): winning a wild card game as either the #5 or #6 seed almost assuredly sends them to Dallas for a third matchup. As we’ve seen, they can win that.
Dec 8, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) scores on a 37-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Oakland Raiders during a NFL football game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Muddled Middle
Games we didn’t agree on
Oakland-Kansas City
In a parallel to the Cowboys-Giants, Oakland has looked excellent for most of the year…except against the Chiefs.
The usually-stellar Raiders offense was ground down into nothing. Derek Carr had his worst showing of the season, with him completing 17 of 41 passes for a mere 117 yards and no TDs. Latavius Murray did have 103 yards, but his longest was just 12 yards. Not a single receiver went over 29 yards. Their defense was decent in spurts, but they quickly fell behind 21-3 after giving up two touchdowns and a punt return touchdown before halftime. They were able to get back into it during the second half, forcing multiple turnovers from the Chiefs, but their offense failed time and again to waste those efforts.
Kansas City announced themselves as perhaps the best team in the AFC. They’ve handled their division-mates to this point (the AFC West has widely been considered the strongest division in 2016), force turnovers with unencumbered abandon while rarely turning it over themselves, have regained their pass rush with the return of Justin Houston, and seen positive adjustments made to their offense which gives them a playmaking edge they’ve lacked in other years. Tyreek Hill has been a revelation on the field (though his off-field baggage should not be overlooked; it’d be incredible that he’s even on a team if only the NFL wasn’t just blatantly providing lip service to domestic violence issues), giving them not only an explosive return man but a receiver to open up the offense. They’ll need multiple slip-ups from the Patriots to get the top AFC seed, but I’m beginning to believe more each week that they would have a great shot against anybody.
Arizona-Miami
Dec 11, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins center Anthony Steen (left) checks on the condition Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (right) during the second half against Arizona Cardinals at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Sloppy game, with some ramifications to delve into.
Miami went up big behind some excellent early defense (though part of it was purely blunders by Carson Palmer) and decent quarterbacking by Ryan Tannehill (3 TDs) to have a 21-9 lead, but most things came up Arizona’s way to make this a close one. A 99 yard touchdown drive (with a blocked-PAT conversion for Miami) put the score at 23-15; another following a Dolphins punt tied things up with the converted two-point try for the Cardinals. The Dolphins had to end the game with Matt Moore for the final four drives; on the last one, he made something happen positively. With 1:29 left, he drove the team into the red zone from midfield; after using a few plays to waste time, Andrew Franks took a chip shot 21 yard field goal try to seal the game with no time remaining.
On Arizona’s side, this was their final, last-ditch chance for an outside hope of the playoffs; winning out would have given them a 9-6-1 record, needing other contenders to drop off like flies, but it could have been conceivable. Now, they have to win out just to not have a losing record.
Miami though has a conundrum. They currently would be in the playoffs if the season ended this weekend; an upcoming game against the Jets seems like another win too, giving them 9-5. 10-6 probably grabs the last playoff spot, and the team would seem capable of grabbing either a win over Buffalo (who may be searching for a new coach by then, based on reports that were brought to Rex Ryan’s attention after his team lost to Pittsburgh this past weekend) or the Patriots (who may have the #1 seed sealed and nothing to play for by then).
Here’s the problem: Tannehill’s injury. It seemed like a torn ACL at first, but even if it is just the ACL/MCL sprain that’s since been mentioned, he’s not going to be his best self out there. None of the remaining teams he’ll face are great against the pass (#s 32/19/27 Pass Defense DVOA for the Jets/Bills/Patriots, respectively), but at least two of those groups excel against the run (#s 6/2 Run Defense DVOA for the Jets/Patriots, respectively) and could force the onus on him to beat them. The Jets have enough issues elsewhere to make that possible, but the Patriots would need to see their offense held down handily for Miami to win in a game where their quarterback isn’t at his best. If Moore ends up having to play in any of these, it may actually help Miami more than a limited Tannehill to some degree, but he’s not beating New England himself either. It sucks to see Tannehill get his nice year damaged like this right at the end, but there may be a silver lining: it probably saves us from another potential Baltimore domination of this group in the playoffs.
San Diego-Carolina
For all their great advanced statistics, at this point San Diego is just what their record states: a flawed team that can’t finish out games. Add Melvin Gordon and Joey Bosa to that pile after this one. The Chargers have suffered too many injuries to their best guys, and Philip Rivers cannot do it all himself. As he tries to, we get what we saw against the Panthers: statistical implosion.
He gave the ball away five different times (3 INTs, 2 fumbles), letting the Panthers come out with a win despite their own crappy performance. Cam Newton completed just 10 of his 27 passes. Jonathan Stewart got only 66 yards on the ground. The defense showed up in a big way (5 sacks to go with those turnovers) but this stayed close enough for the Chargers to keep challenging with a comeback until the very end.
Both teams sit at 5-8, and each would probably like the year to end sooner rather than later.
New York Jets-San Francisco
The noticeably empty stadium gave us all we need to know here: two bad teams played, and one bungled their way into a win.
Carlos Hyde put up 193 yards on the ground against the #6 Run Defense by DVOA, while Bilal Powell put up 145 against a much worse outfit, so that’s interesting. Bryce Petty got his first win behind center, so that’s cool.
Otherwise, all which really matters is the Jets damaged their draft position, while San Francisco stands to get at least the #2 pick.
Seattle-Green Bay
Dec 11, 2016; Green Bay, WS, USA; Green Bay Packers cornerback Quinten Rollins (24) and strong safety Micah Hyde (33) celebrate after Rollins intercepted a pass as the Green Bay Packers host the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field. Mandatory credit: Adam Wesley/Green Bay Press Gazette via USA TODAY NETWORK
The big one you’ve all been waiting for, the Green Bay blowout. As my pick on this game would attest, I didn’t see anything like this occurring; I’m glad to be wrong.
The Packers pulled out their best showing of 2016 with a full game domination of the Seahawks. It came from the offense blasting apart the Earl Thomas-deprived Seattle defense with great throws, putting up a passer rating over 150 while tossing 3 TDs. It came from the defense, picking off Russell Wilson five different times (as well as grabbing a fumble elsewhere). The end result was a 28-point victory, putting the Packers right where they need to be as they try to run the table to the playoffs. Their fellow postseason hopefuls in the NFC did them no favors — all who are competing for spots with Green Bay won their games — but the win keeps them firmly in the mix in these final three weeks.
Seattle looked beyond lost here, but it may just be they hit the wrong team at the wrong time. Their secondary is missing perhaps their most important player now, and their biggest strength without Thomas (their pass rush) was neutralized by the NFL’s best pass-blocking unit. Their offense isn’t proving capable of keeping up in shootouts, and they were quickly dropped into the need to score in bunches. Green Bay also is getting healthier on defense, so they had to face a group that had at the very least more young bodies to toss out against a group that has talent to catch passes but talent which is mostly rooted in two guys. Oh and their line is terrible, and had to face a team that had some history with forcing a bundle of turnovers out of Wilson even when he had much better blocking ahead of him.
With games against their division-mates all that remains for their regular season schedule, there’s no way this team falls out of the playoffs. It would take losses in all these final games and Arizona winning out to change that fate. Even if Arizona has the ability to beat them and the Rams can pull out another surprise against them, this team isn’t losing to the 49ers. I only bet on blackjack, but if I were to throw money on the line for any result in any game, it would be these Seahawks beating the current sorry excuse for a team which resides in San Francisco. Expect them to be fine with getting in, but without top-two seed it could be an early exit for a team I’ve tried holding out hope for as the roadblock to a Cowboys Super Bowl berth.
Dec 11, 2016; Green Bay, WS, USA; Green Bay Packers player Jordy Nelson leaves the field following the Packers
Who Won The Week
For the third straight week and fifth across the season, we have a tie at the top of the week.
This week saw the two contenders for second place, myself and Thomas, hit 11 correct picks. Brad was right behind with 10, keeping his large lead well out of reach.
It will be a close race to the finish; one bad week from either of us will likely give the silver-medal competition to the other. We’ve both been pretty consistently good recently though, so it seems a couple games each week will make all the difference in these final 48 picks.
Week 14 Picks Records:
Kenn: 11-5
Thomas: 11-5
Brad: 10-6
Josh: 0-16
2016 Picks Records:
Brad: 133-73-2
Kenn: 120-86-2
Thomas: 117-89-2
Josh: 82-124-2
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