National Football League

Matthew Stafford presents risk-reward dilemma for Rams

Updated Jan. 7, 2022 5:31 p.m. ET

By Eric D. Williams
FOX Sports NFL Writer

Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay pored over hours of film on Matthew Stafford before making a trade for the 33-year-old quarterback in March.

One shortcoming jumped off the screen from Stafford's 12 seasons with the Lions: The veteran gunslinger didn't always know when to say "uncle."

Ten months after that blockbuster deal, it's fair to say that fixing that issue is still a work in progress for McVay.

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"Sometimes the best thing is, let’s live to fight another play, and let’s bring [punter] Johnny Hekker on the grass and let him punt it," McVay lamented after a three-turnover performance from Stafford in the Rams’ comeback victory at Baltimore last week.

While Stafford has put up impressive numbers and played well in clutch situations for the 12-4 Rams (who could clinch the NFC West with a victory over the visiting 49ers on Sunday), the Texas native still struggles with giveaways, much liked the discarded Jared Goff did a season ago.

Stafford has turned the ball over six times in the past two games (five interceptions and a lost fumble). He has had five games with at least two turnovers this season, and the Rams are 2-3 in those contests.

Four of Stafford’s 15 interceptions have been returned for scores this season, the most in the NFL and tied for the most of any season in Stafford's 13-year NFL career. That’s the same number Goff threw in his five seasons with the Rams. Those 15 interceptions are also the most Stafford has thrown in a full season since 2013 (19 interceptions).

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Does this sound familiar? It should.

From 2017 to 2020, only Jameis Winston (70) had more turnovers than Goff’s 65. That, along with Goff’s inconsistent decision-making under duress, is why the Rams traded the Cal product, along with two first-round selections and a third-round pick, to Detroit for Stafford.

Stafford's hemorrhaging turnovers is troubling, as he acknowledged earlier this season.

"I’ve got to do a better job of making sure that every possession that we have ends in a kick, whether that be a punt or a field goal or an extra point," Stafford said. "That is something I’ll be really dialed in on for as long as I’m playing this game."

Riding a five-game winning streak, the Rams are in position to make a deep playoff run.

Receiver Cooper Kupp is in the MVP conversation, in line to become the first receiving triple-crown winner since Carolina’s Steve Smith in 2005, leading the NFL in receptions (138), touchdowns (15) and receiving yards (1,829).

The Rams have a stingy defense, paced by frontline players such as Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd.

And their special-teams play has been better this year. Kicker Matthew Gay made the Pro Bowl, and L.A. received a jolt in the return game with the midseason addition of Brandon Powell.

Stafford has dealt with his share of nagging elbow and back injuries this season. But the Rams need him to fight through the discomfort, be efficient and play mistake-free football.

The table is set, and it’s up to Stafford to deliver.

For the first half of the season, he did just that. Through the first eight games, Stafford completed 69% of his passes for 2,477 yards, 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The Rams went 7-1 in those games.

But over the past eight games, Stafford has completed 66% of his passes for 2,171 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Rams are 5-3 in those games.

Just like Stafford, McVay continues to say all the right things.

"This guy’s a great competitor. He’s unflappable," McVay said of Stafford’s ability to overcome adversity during a game. "Sometimes these [turnovers] are occupational hazards. We want to avoid those when we can — but not at the expense of not continuing to compete."

Stafford’s issues taking care of the football harken back to another QB with a gunslinger mentality: Philip Rivers.

The longtime former QB of the Chargers had some issues keeping the ball away from the other team late in his career. Rivers threw a league-high 74 interceptions from 2016 to his final NFL season with the Colts in 2020. He led the NFL in interceptions returned for touchdowns in 2015 (five) and 2016 (three).

Rivers is seventh all time in the NFL with 25 pick-sixes. Stafford is tied for fourth with 27.

However, just like Stafford, Rivers usually played clutch when it mattered most. Stafford is third among active leaders with 34 fourth-quarter comebacks. Rivers is tied for 10th all time with 29.

Stafford has a league-high 126.8 passer rating with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in the fourth quarter this season.

Both players also struggled in the postseason. Teams that Rivers led finished with a 5-7 record in the playoffs. Rivers reached the AFC title game once, playing with a torn ACL and meniscus in his right knee, and lost on the road to the New England Patriots in the 2008 AFC Championship.

Stafford has yet to win a playoff game, going 0-3 in his 12 seasons with the Lions.

Is Stafford just Rivers with more arm strength? The Rams will find out in the coming weeks. McVay’s reason for securing Stafford was his ability to make plays in clutch moments, with hopes that the QB could lead the team back to the Super Bowl — a home game in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium in February.

Stafford showed what he could do in clutch situations last week against Baltimore, rebounding from a turnover-prone first half by completing all 14 of his passes down the stretch and leading L.A.’s offense on a game-winning drive for an impressive road victory.

Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians is famous for coining the phrase "No risk-it, no biscuit." But how much is McVay willing to lean into the risk/reward of relying on Stafford to make plays in critical stretches come the postseason?

Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell said Stafford’s performance in the second half of his team’s win over the Ravens might be the blueprint for the offense as the Rams head into the postseason: Take what the defense gives you, and pick your spots to take shots down the field.

Rivers had a similar credo later in his career: Don’t get bored with easy completions.

"Just the value of completions, the power of completions and picking our spots where maybe we can be more aggressive down the field, more aggressive by the situation," O’Connell said.

"Understanding that in the end, the most important thing is the value of the possession of the football."

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter @eric_d_williams.