National Football League

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 27, 2023 12:11 p.m. ET

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The Minnesota Vikings (6-5) and Chicago Bears (3-8) will play each other in a matchup of two division rivals. The Vikings are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). 

Both of these teams suffered losses in Week 11. The Vikings fell 21-20 to the Denver Broncos in their contest, while the Bears were defeated 31-26 by the Detroit Lions. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Bears and Vikings — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Vikings vs. Bears Odds & Betting Lines

Vikings vs. Bears Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Minnesota (-3) 
• Pick OU: Over (43) 
• Prediction: Minnesota 28 - Chicago 17

How to Watch Minnesota vs. Chicago

• Game Date: Monday, November 27, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
• Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
• TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill 

The Vikings led for most of the game last week against the Broncos, but a series of costly turnovers was ultimately too much for them to overcome. I expect they’ll be much more careful with the ball this week, and take care of business at home. 

Justin Fields, for all of his dynamic ability, is just 6-33 as a starter in the NFL and will be facing a blitz-heavy Vikings defense that has been greatly improved by coordinator Brian Flores. After finishing near the bottom of the league in most major categories last year, Flores has the Vikings defense in the top-10 in yards per play allowed, and in the top half of the league in points per game allowed. 

Look for the Vikings to get it done at home. 

PICK: Vikings (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Vikings vs. Bears Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head contests, Minnesota has won against Chicago three times.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Minnesota has scored 102 points, while Chicago has compiled 85.

Minnesota Betting Info

• Minnesota has played 11 games, posting seven wins against the spread.
• The Vikings have been favored by 3 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in two of those games.
• Minnesota games this year have hit the over on three of 11 set point totals (27.3%).
• When playing as moneyline favorites, the Vikings have won 75% of the time (3-1).
• When it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -148 or shorter, Minnesota has gone 2-1 (66.7%).
• Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Vikings' implied win probability is 59.7%.

Vikings Stats

Minnesota's Key Players

Offense

• Joshua Dobbs has 2,216 passing yards through 11 games this year, averaging 201.5 per game with a 63.5% completion percentage and 12 touchdowns against six interceptions.
• In addition to his passing statistics, Dobbs also has 389 rushing yards (second on the Vikings), with six rushing touchdowns.
• Jordan Addison has 48 catches for 647 yards and seven TDs. In 11 games, he is averaging 4.4 catches and 58.8 yards per game.
• In the passing attack, T.J. Hockenson, has totaled 736 receiving yards and four touchdowns after grabbing 75 balls (sixth in the NFL) on 102 targets. Per game, he's averaging 66.9 yards and 6.8 receptions through 11 games.
• Alexander Mattison has run for 542 yards, averaging 49.3 yards per game without scoring a touchdown.
• Mattison's 38 receiving targets have led to 25 receptions (2.3 per game) for 163 yards (14.8 per game) and three TDs.

Defense

• On defense, Danielle Hunter has 51 tackles, 16 TFL, and 12 sacks in 2023.
• Camryn Bynum has 91 tackles, two TFL, 0.5 sacks, and two interceptions this season. He leads the Vikings in tackles.
• This season, Josh Metellus has recorded one sack to go with his five TFL, 68 tackles, and one interception.
• Harrison Smith has 71 tackles, two TFL, three sacks, and one pass defended.

Chicago Betting Info

• Chicago have registered a 4-6-1 record against the spread this season.
• The Bears have an against the spread record of 3-3-1 in their seven games as an underdog of 3 points or more this year.
• This season, seven Chicago games have gone over the point total.
• The Bears have won two of the nine games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Chicago is 1-6 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +124 or more on the moneyline.
• The Bears have a 44.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Bears Stats

Chicago's Key Players

Offense

• Justin Fields is averaging 7.4 passing yards per attempt (10th in the NFL) and 195.7 yards per game this year, completing 62.7% of his passes on the way to 1,370 total yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions through seven games.
• He's added 341 yards on the ground (second on the Bears), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He's averaging 48.7 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt.
• D.J. Moore has 889 receiving yards (eighth in the NFL) and six touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) on 59 receptions, while being targeted 80 times.
• So far this season, Cole Kmet has caught 49 passes for 439 receiving yards with five touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 61 total times and is averaging 4.5 receptions per game over 11 games played.
• D'Onta Foreman has scored four touchdowns on the ground, while running for 381 total yards (4.1 per attempt and 54.4 per game).
• Foreman also has 55 receiving yards (7.9 per game) on nine catches (1.3 per game). He has been targeted 13 times with one touchdown reception.

Defense

• In 2023, T.J. Edwards has put up 119 tackles, five TFL, two sacks, and one interception through 11 games.
• Montez Sweat's stats include 36 tackles, 11 TFL, 7.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
• Tremaine Edmunds has three TFL, 71 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2023 campaign.
• Tyrique Stevenson has intercepted one pass in addition to 59 tackles, one TFL, and seven passes defended.

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