National Football League

MVP Watch: Matthew Stafford up big, Aaron Rodgers down big in latest odds

Updated Sep. 14, 2021 6:56 p.m. ET

One week does not make an MVP in the NFL, but it can definitely hurt a superstar's chances.

Look no further than Aaron Rodgers, the reigning MVP, who saw his stock drop from second-favorite to win the award in the eyes of the oddsmakers all the way down to ninth-favorite.

That is what an on-field dud can do when the competition is so tight! Rodgers' descent opened the floor for a new face among the top three candidates: new Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford.

There is still a long way to go before a clear-cut winner emerges, though.

Here are the top MVP favorites according to FOX Bet's insights, with a breakdown of each candidate's recent play and what's on the horizon. (Note: All odds current as of Tuesday morning.)

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1. Patrick Mahomes +550

How it's going: Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs rallied from a shaky, 10-point first half against the Cleveland Browns to rattle off 23 points after halftime to win 33-29. The 25-year-old QB rushed for Kansas City's lone first-half touchdown, then threw three in the second half to finish 27-for-36 for 337 yards and a passer rating of 131.4.

What's up next: The Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens in prime time Sunday night at M&T Bank Stadium. Mahomes has never lost to the Ravens, going 3-0 with nine touchdowns, one interception and an average passer rating of 116.2. In the teams' most recent meeting, Mahomes completed 73.8% of his passes for 385 yards and four TDs while adding a rushing touchdown in a 34-20 victory.

What people are saying: "He's that guy. He's it. … Every inch of the field is in play for him, no matter where he is on the field." ⁠— Shannon Sharpe, "Undisputed"

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2. Tom Brady +900

How it's going: Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the 2021 NFL season with a bang, beating the Dallas Cowboys 31-29 in a fireworks show Thursday night. Brady threw a pair of uncharacteristic interceptions in the second quarter, but those blemishes on the stat sheet don't tell the full story. His first pick caromed off the hands of his intended target, running back Leonard Fournette, and his second was on a Hail Mary attempt to end the first half. Otherwise, Brady finished 32-for-50 for 379 yards, four TDs and a passer rating of 97.0.

What's up next: The Atlanta Falcons ⁠await Brady & Co. in Week 2. Brady sports a 7-0 regular-season record against the Falcons, but it's his Super Bowl LI triumph against Atlanta that ranks among the all-time great postseason moments in NFL history. For the uninitiated, Brady, then a member of the New England Patriots, helped orchestrate a comeback for the ages. Down 28-3 in the third quarter, the Patriots went on to win 34-28. Brady made sure to offer a sneaky reminder of that comeback on social media, posting a video that seemed to be filmed at 3:28, based on his computer in the background.

What people are saying: "At 44, he's going on 24. He's going to win the MVP this year, and I believe he'll lead the Bucs to 20-0. It's virtually impossible unless you're Tom Brady." ⁠— Skip Bayless, "Undisputed"

T-3. Josh Allen +1100

How it's going: The Pittsburgh Steelers pulled off one of Week 1's more shocking results, stymying Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a 23-16 upset victory. Allen couldn't get much going against the stingy Steelers, completing 58.8% of his passes for one touchdown and a passer rating of 79.7. He was also sacked three times and fumbled the ball twice, losing possession on one occasion.

What's up next: The Bills will head south to take on the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East battle Sunday. Allen has had his way with the Dolphins throughout his young career, posting a 5-1 record, with the lone loss coming in his first meeting against Miami. For his career, he has completed 64.0% of his passes for 1,552 yards, 17 TDs, four interceptions and a 114.3 passer rating. He has also added three scores on the ground in their six meetings.

What people are saying: "You can't become the highest-paid player, second-highest paid player in the history of the league, and in your first game — against a team where you're a touchdown favorite that people have projected [to] miss the playoffs this year — blow a 10-point halftime lead and do nothing in the second half." ⁠— Nick Wright, "First Things First,"

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T-3. Matthew Stafford +1100

How it's going: After an incredible debut for the Los Angeles Rams, Stafford made the jump from the honorable mentions to be tied for third-favorite to win the MVP award. In his season opener under Sean McVay, Stafford was the model of efficiency. The 33-year-old QB closed up shop against the Chicago Bears with a final stat line of 20-for-26 for 321 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-14 win Sunday night.

What's up next: The Rams will travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Stafford has faced off against the Colts three times in his career, posting a 1-2 record against the AFC South squad. Despite that record, the QB has solid numbers against Indy. In his three starts as a member of the Detroit Lions, he completed 64.6% of his passes for 989 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 102.8.

What people are saying: "Matt Stafford averaged 12.3 yards an attempt. That's why the Rams got Matt Stafford. … Everything fits perfectly." ⁠— Colin Cowherd, "The Herd"

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