National Football League

MVP Watch: Tom Brady back at the top as Josh Allen's struggles continue

Updated Nov. 23, 2021 7:53 p.m. ET

After four straight weeks with the same weekly leader, there has been a change at the top of the NFL's MVP race.

The leader a week ago is now sitting in second and at a fairly distant margin, too.

Here are the MVP favorites heading into Week 12, according to FOX Bet's insights, with a breakdown of each candidate's recent play and what is on the horizon. (All odds current as of Tuesday.)

1. Tom Brady: +275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bounced back from back-to-back losses on the road to take down an old nemesis of the 44-year-old QB, the New York Giants. In the 30-10 win Monday night, Brady had 46 pass attempts, the third-most attempts he has had this season. He completed 30 of them for 307 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — his third straight game with at least one pick and fifth in his previous three games.

What's next: The Bucs head back out on the road to take on the 6-5 Indianapolis Colts, winners of three straight games and five of their past six. In 14 regular-season games against the Colts, Brady has an 11-3 record with 32 passing TDs, 15 interceptions and an average passer rating of 102.3. He has yet to face them in a Bucs uniform, though, with the most recent meeting coming in 2018 when he played for the New England Patriots.

What people are saying: "Why should he be the MVP? I mean, what are we basing this on? … If I look at Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers' résumé is better than Brady's." ⁠— Shannon Sharpe of "Undisputed" on if Brady should be the MVP front runner on Tuesday

2. Josh Allen: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Allen's up-and-down season hit another downturn in Week 11's blowout loss to the Colts. Allen had 209 passing yards in the 41-15 letdown, the fewest he has managed to put up in a losing effort this season. He threw two touchdown passes but also had two interceptions, both of which were turned into Colts TDs. Perhaps even more alarming: Buffalo's defense allowed Colts RB Jonathan Taylor to pick up 204 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage.

What's next: Buffalo's star QB will get his first chance at facing the New Orleans Saints in a Thanksgiving Day matchup. In the midst of a three-game losing streak, the 5-5 Saints are scuffling as of late. Given the way both of these high-profile teams have been playing in recent weeks, it's tough to predict which of them show up.

What people are saying: "I've been telling you guys that ol' Magic Mountain Allen is a rollercoaster … It's just up and down, up and down, up and down. He's not reliable." ⁠— Nick Wright of "First Things First" on Allen's inconsistent season on Monday

Honorable Mentions:

This week's Honorable Mentions merit special distinction, as three players are tied for third place in the MVP race at +900. Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are all in the mix. However, all three are coming off of losses with their respective teams, which could be the difference going forward between breaking away from the pack.