National Football League

MVP Watch: Tom Brady's odds improve despite being idle, as Josh Allen clings to lead

Updated Nov. 9, 2021 3:23 p.m. ET

Week 9 of the NFL season was not particularly kind to the MVP candidates.

Of the top three front-runners a week ago, two took a loss (Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford), and another (Kyler Murray) missed his team's game due to injury.

Those outcomes all benefited another candidate, one who was on a bye: Tom Brady.

Here are the MVP favorites heading into Week 10, according to FOX Bet's insights, with a breakdown of each candidate's recent play and what is on the horizon. (All odds current as of Tuesday morning.)

1. Josh Allen: +375 (bet $10 to win $47.50 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Allen had a rough game for the Buffalo Bills in a 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. He went 31-for-47 for 264 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions and a season-low 62.7 passer rating. He also lost a fumble. Interestingly enough, it was another Josh Allen on the other side of the field who did the most damage to Buffalo's QB. The Jaguars' DE/LB sacked Allen, intercepted Allen and recovered an Allen fumble in the upset victory.

What's next: The Bills take a short trip to face the New York Jets in an in-state rivalry on Sunday. In five career games against his AFC East foes, Allen has a 3-2 record in the regular season. He has thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions against the Jets and has a 79.0 passer rating, which is well below his career average of 91.7 in 51 starts thus far.

What people are saying: "Josh Allen was harassed … every single time he dropped back. … He just wasn't able to get rid of the football." ⁠— Tiki Barber of "Tiki and Tierney" on Allen's struggles against the Jaguars

2. Tom Brady: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on a bye for Week 9, giving the QB and his team plenty of time to lick their wounds after losing 36-27 to the New Orleans Saints on Halloween. The Saints have Brady's number, as he is 1-3 vs. Sean Payton's team but 20-4 against the rest of the league since joining the Bucs. Nevertheless, Brady still leads the league with 25 touchdown passes and an average of 331.3 passing yards per game at the age of 44.

What's next: A rematch of one of last season's wild-card games is coming up Sunday, with the Bucs visiting the Washington Football Team. Brady completed 22 of his 40 pass attempts in that contest for 381 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions for his first playoff win as a Buccaneer. From there, well, the Buccaneers rolled to their first Super Bowl victory since 2002.

What people are saying: "He didn't even play this week, and guess what he did this week — he probably won the MVP! Because every other MVP candidate either didn't play or played terribly." ⁠— Nick Wright of "First Things First" on Brady's good luck

3. Kyler Murray: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Murray didn't play in Week 9 due to an injured ankle, but the Arizona Cardinals stayed afloat without him. In fact, they dismantled the San Francisco 49ers without their star QB, winning 31-17 to move to 8-1 on the season. Murray's fill-in, veteran Colt McCoy, completed 84.6% of his 26 pass attempts for 249 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, running back James Conner racked up three all-purpose TDs for the Cardinals, who were also without their top wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins.

What's next: Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury hasn't committed to Murray suiting up for Week 10's meeting with the Carolina Panthers. If the 24-year-old QB's ankle is good to go, he'll be facing a team he has yet to beat. In two regular-season matchups vs. the Panthers, Murray is 0-2, despite throwing for a combined five touchdowns and two interceptions.

What people are saying: "We like the way he progressed through the week and improved, but we'll have to see how he looks … when we get back out there on Wednesday, and hopefully, he can operate and function." ⁠— Kingsbury on Monday regarding Murray's Week 10 status