Malcolm Butler's future with the New England Patriots has been put in doubt, but despite the uncertainty, keeping Butler is in the team"s best interests.
New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft said it himself: the organization's "intention" isn't to trade Malcolm Butler to the New Orleans Saints (per Larry Holder of NOLA.com), who are ostensibly the only team interested in acquiring the star cornerback. Now, Kraft didn't say that the Patriots would match any offer the Saints sent to Butler, because failure to match New Orleans's offer would mean that Butler leaves to the NFC South for the 11th overall pick.
Likewise, the Saints have made it clear that they won't part ways with the No. 11 pick for Butler, which is why there's been an impasse for several weeks. Butler hasn't signed his $3.91 million tender with the Patriots, and New England won't entertain trade offers from the Saints until he does so.
CSN New England's Mike Giardi reported last week that the Saints and Butler have a deal that is "mostly" in place, yet Saints GM Mickey Loomis has been tight-lipped about the team's interest in Butler, merely stating that they are "kicking the tires" on the 27-year-old. It's clear that they've done much more than that, and it's even clearer that Butler would be one of the Saints three best players on defense if acquired.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Butler are two stars who could leave the Patriots this offseason, because both players could leave in 2018 without the Pats receiving comparable compensation. As we've seen time after time, Bill Belichick likes to get something in return when he knows that a player will be too expensive to keep.
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Butler has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL over the past couple of seasons, and I'm sure the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. and Russell Wilson can attest to how good he is. A true shutdown corner, Butler has a combined 32 passes defended in his past two seasons, in addition to a haul of four interceptions in 2016. Gilmore may have more potential as a pure cover guy, based on what we've seen from him when he was at his best with the Buffalo Bills, but Butler is one of the most dangerous playmakers at the cornerback position.
Evidently, the Patriots value top cornerbacks as much as any team in this league. Not only did they sign Gilmore to a five-year, $65 million deal with $31 million in guarantees, but they also called up the Seattle Seahawks to ask about Richard Sherman (per Ian Rapaport) before making the decision to sign Gilmore.
It's worth noting that Gilmore's contract contains the second-most guaranteed money of any cornerback, as his deal is topped by only Josh Norman's pact with the Washington Redskins. The Patriots coveted Gilmore highly and did whatever they could to sign him quickly, suggesting that they anticipate parting ways with Butler. Considering how Butler's interception and passes defensed numbers are comparable to Gilmore's over the past two seasons, it's fair to wonder if the Patriots would be willing to commit to another massive contract to a cornerback.
Dec 24, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler (21) during the first half against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A pairing of Butler and Gilmore would be one of the NFL's best for three years, but would it be worth the cost? And judging by the amount of guarantees the Patriots threw at Gilmore, I'm sure Butler would want an equally large sum of guaranteed money, which would be risky business for Belichick.
The Patriots have no reason to rush a deal, though, because the ball is in the Saints court. It's their job to decide if they want to sign Butler to an offer sheet, which would result in the movement of the No. 11 pick to the Pats. Since that isn't happening, the onus is on Butler to sign his deal with the Patriots in order to facilitate a trade. Butler isn't biting either, because he doesn't want to risk playing out the upcoming season on the $3.91 million tender—far less than what an elite cornerback capable of 15+ passes defended is worth.
Let's say the Patriots stand firm on their asking price of the 11th overall pick and the Saints never bite. If the Pats end up keeping Butler for the 2017 season, he'll gun for a contract similar—or greater than—Gilmore's. Butler will be two years older than Gilmore at the time of free agency, but $30 million in guaranteed money isn't completely out of reason for him.
Butler could be viewed unfavorably around the league as a true No. 1 corner, and other teams may worry about his scheme fit or age. Given how much cornerbacks are valued, this is unlikely, so I wouldn't expect him to Dont'a Hightower himself back to the Patriots in 2018 free agency. This means Butler would join another team, shipping a mere third-round selection back to the Patriots as a compensatory pick.
The drop-off from a possible first (we have no idea what the Saints are actually willing to give up) to a third-round pick is steep, but it could be worth it to the Patriots if it means they win the Super Bowl. The Patriots defense led the league in points per game last season, but they did admittedly benefit from facing a boatload of poor quarterbacks. They can't afford to let their pass defense become a weakness in 2017, because they have lost some talented players like Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, and Logan Ryan.
Gilmore can replace Butler, but wouldn't it be better to have both as star cornerbacks? That would remove cornerback as a draft need, too, allowing the Patriots to add an impact pass rusher, which is something they are sorely lacking. And no, Kony Ealy is not the solution, because his career is basically one game at this point.
Belichick will continue to wait patiently, since this is a situation where he doesn't have to make a move. He can bide his time and see who blinks first: the Saints or Butler. There's so much smoke between Butler and the Saints that it's easy to envision a deal of some sort taking place, but if one doesn't occur, I don't think the Patriots will be upset about keeping Butler on the cheap for one more Super Bowl run, eventually cashing him in for a third-round compensatory pick.
