Saints face crucial decisions with Armstead, Williams, other free agents
To put it plainly, the New Orleans Saints are set to enter yet another offseason facing a salary cap apocalypse.
New Orleans ranks last out of 32 teams on Spotrac’s salary cap tracker. They need to shave — or perhaps amputate — $76.2 million in salary from their books, $27.7 million more than any other team.
The Saints performed this type of wizardry last year, carving out $111 million in cap space, but the Big Easy will surely suffer a forced exodus of talented players this offseason.
Five of the Saints’ most important players — Terron Armstead, Marcus Williams, Jameis Winston, Kwon Alexander and Tre'Quan Smith — will enter free agency and New Orleans does not have the cap space to keep them all. Here are the pros and cons for each high-profile Saints free agent ahead of an offseason defined by difficult decisions.
Terron Armstead — LT
Adjusted Average Per Year (APY): $13 million
Pros: The pros certainly outweigh the cons for Armstead, who stands as the second-ranked free agent in 2022 per Pro Football Focus (PFF). The 2013 Saints draft pick has remained in New Orleans his entire career, standing out for his pass protection abilities. He allowed just one sack last season and finished with a pass-blocking grade of 85.2, which PFF considers Pro-Bowl caliber. Additionally, Armstead is one of the most disciplined players in the league, committing just three penalties in 2021.
Armstead, 30, earned three consecutive Pro-Bowl selections from 2018 to 2020, along with a second-team All-Pro nod in 2018.
Cons: Armstead struggled with run-blocking in 2021, posting a backup-caliber 64.1 PFF grade. This weakness is particularly pronounced on a Saints team that ranked third in the NFL last season in rushing play percentage. There are also significant injury concerns around Armstead, who played just eight games last season. The tackle missed time early due to an arm injury and missed the final four games of the season due to a knee injury. Armstead underwent surgery on his knee last month and hopes to return in time to start the 2022 season.
Marcus Williams — S
APY: $10.6 million
Pros: It’s hard to find a better defensive back than Marcus Williams this free agency cycle, who ranked seventh among all safeties in 2021 and stands as the eighth-best overall free agent this offseason per PFF.
Williams has nabbed 15 interceptions since his rookie season in 2017, ranking 12th among all players during that stretch, while also forcing three fumbles. The former Utah Ute earned two second-team All-Pro selections in 2019 and 2021 and enjoys a clean injury record, missing just four games in four NFL seasons.
Cons: Williams' 80.0 PFF Grade places him comfortably into the starter range, but the fifth-year DB has shown vulnerability against the ground game, with a 68.0 run defense grade in 2021. He's also a risk to surrender big gains in man-to-man defense, best exemplified by Stefon Diggs' Minneapolis Miracle grab over Williams.
Jameis Winston — QB
APY: $5.5 million
Pros: Drew Brees' Hall-of-Fame insight seems to have molded Jameis Winston from a turnover-machine into one of the NFL's most risk-averse quarterbacks. Just two years after paradoxically leading the league in passing yards and interceptions, Winston threw just three interceptions and 11 touchdowns in seven starts with the Saints last season.
Cons: Winston's overall passing volume last season was somewhat concerning, as he only making seven starts and passed for 1,170 yards, a total well under half of his career average. And while Winston had fewer turnovers, he completed just 59% of his passes, the second-lowest percentage of his career.
Kwon Alexander — LB
APY: $1.1 million
Pros: Alexander would be a more affordable returnee on defense, coming off a one-year deal worth about $1 million last season, and he provided much-needed energy and NFL experience to the Saints secondary. Alexander was decent in coverage last season with a 67.6 PFF grade, and fairly active with 50 tackles on the season and a career-high 3.5 sacks.
Cons: Alexander was woeful against the run in 2021, posting a lowly PFF grade of 34.8. Overall, Alexander finished with a PFF grade of 53.9, well below starter-caliber and likely not befitting a rumored $6 million contract this offseason.
Tre'Quan Smith — WR
APY: $885,000
Pros: Smith finished with an overall PFF grade of 62.7, a comparable figure to higher-paid receivers like Bryan Edwards and Sterling Shepherd. He has also displayed a capacity for much better performances, so he presents an opportunity for teams in free agency to acquire a high-ceiling receiver for a competitive salary.
Cons: Smith's injury-riddled contract year in 2021 was a disappointment after a strong 2020 campaign. He started just six games in 2021, finishing with a career-low in yards per reception (11.8).
