National Football League

New York Jets' Super Bowl odds on move after Aaron Rodgers' Achilles injury

Updated Sep. 12, 2023 6:03 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL odds markets responded swiftly to Aaron Rodgers’ injury just four plays into his regular-season debut with the New York Jets. 

In Monday night’s opener against the Buffalo Bills, Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles and is done for the season. 

Notwithstanding the Jets’ surprising 22-16 overtime win against the Bills, bookmakers no longer think of New York as a Super Bowl team or even a playoff team, a tough pill to swallow for the throngs of bettors who jumped on the Jets over the past few months. 

Multiple oddsmakers chimed in on the ramifications of the Jets' futures odds and more. 

"Playoffs? You Kidding Me? Playoffs?"

Remember that quote from an infamous Jim Mora rant? It certainly applies to the Jets at this point. 

"Aaron Rodgers’ season has come to an end after just a couple of snaps of his Jets debut in Week 1. The repercussions of this for Jets bettors are unfortunately far-reaching," said Kevin Lawler, head of trading for PointsBet, a Fanatics Experience. "The Jets drop from an exciting Super Bowl contender to an average NFL team, where their Super Bowl price has drifted from +1100 pre-Monday Night Football to +5000 post-game." 

MRI confirms Aaron Rodgers is out for the season

An MRI has confirmed that New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers will miss the remaining of the season with a torn Achilles.

Indeed, the Jets were sixth in PointsBet’s odds to win the Super Bowl. Now, Gang Green is the co-18th choice among 32 teams. 

On PointsBet’s preseason prop bet of Jets Yes/No to make the playoffs, 62% of money wagered was on Yes. The Yes option was a -135 favorite, while No was a +110 underdog. 

And on the season win total prop of Jets Over/Under 9.5, 63% of the money was on Over 9.5. With Zach Wilson now back under center, Lawler thinks seven wins could be a stretch. 

"The Jets will be expected to win about three to four games less with Wilson starting at quarterback instead of Rodgers," he said. 

Major Market Moves 

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jets tumbled from +1600 to +6000 in Super Bowl futures odds, as seen in the graphic below. Correspondingly, New York stretched from +1100 to +3000 in AFC championship odds. 

In DraftKings’ Super Bowl market, the Jets have taken the second-most money — behind only the Cincinnati Bengals — and fifth-most bets. In DraftKings’ AFC title market, the Jets have taken the most money and second-most bets. 

Prior to Monday night’s game, DraftKings’ Yes/No prop of Jets to make the playoffs had Yes as a -130 favorite and No a +110 underdog. Post-Rodgers injury, the odds are No -280/Yes +215. The ticket count sits at 2/1 and money 4/1 on Yes, but all those bets and dollars are certainly in jeopardy now. 

The Jets’ win total at DraftKings dropped from Over/Under 9.5 to Over/Under 8.5. The Over had taken a modest majority, 54% of bets, but those bets were translating into 91% of money on the Over. 

And, of course, Rodgers’ injury heavily impacted Week 2 odds for the Jets’ big Sunday road trip to face the Dallas Cowboys. When DraftKings first posted Week 2 odds Sunday night, New York was a 3-point underdog. On Monday afternoon, in the wake of Dallas’ impressive 40-0 Sunday night road blowout of the New York Giants, the Jets adjusted to 3.5-point ‘dogs. 

After Rodgers’ injury, DraftKings went straight to Jets +7.5, and bettors have since piled on the Cowboys. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Jets are 9.5-point underdogs against Dallas. 

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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