National Football League

NFC Championship Game odds: 3 reasons to bet the Eagles against 49ers

Published Jan. 25, 2023 2:39 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) have put together an impressive season. So impressive, in fact, that they earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They're also the team that went the longest this year before losing a game.  

The San Francisco 49ers (15-4), however, are also hot and come into this game on a 12-game winning streak. That hot streak has made many fans and bettors believe the Red and Gold are the team to beat this weekend.

These two squads will face off this Sunday in the NFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Sports App.

How should you wager on this powerhouse matchup? I have you covered with three reasons to bet on the Eagles — with odds via FOX Bet.

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San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (3 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Quarterback Play

The Eagles are better at quarterback — the most important position on the field.

Jalen Hurts is a better QB than Brock Purdy, and there's just no debating that. The Eagles offense functions well because of Hurts, while the 49ers offense functions with Purdy just existing in it. Philadelphia's offense is designed around what Hurts can do well. This includes taking shots down the field to WR A.J. Brown, moving outside the pocket to hit underneath to medium crossing routes and rushing when needed. I do believe the Eagles will add more Hurts rushing back into the game plan for this NFC Championship Game, even though they only used it a handful of times against the Giants in the divisional round.

Brock Purdy is an outstanding story. The final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is now quarterbacking a team playing in the NFC title matchup. But so far this postseason, we have seen the limitations in his game. We've also seen him make some throws that could have resulted in disaster. When the offense is not on schedule, Purdy is less likely to find his receiving options in a timely manner. He has a habit of running out of the pocket when he senses pressure. Also, we can't underestimate how hard it will be for him to play in Philly's tough atmosphere. 

Purdy has started seven games, and five of those were at home. One of the two road games was in Seattle's tough environment, and the Niners only scored 21 points there. The Linc will be jumping. It will be loud. Purdy has not experienced this before. The Eagles have a huge edge here.

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Superior Defensive Line

Contrary to how many fans and analysts hype up the 49ers, they only have a single stud in Trent Williams on their offensive line. The rest of that unit is shaky, and the Eagles can absolutely take advantage of that. 

The 49ers right tackle is ranked 43rd among offensive tackles in pass protection grade. Mike McGlinchey will be facing the Eagles excellent pass rusher, Haason Reddick. He finished with 75 pressures this season, which is good for eight in the NFL. The 49ers left guard Aaron Banks is ranked 27th, while the Niners rotate Spencer Burford and Daniel Brunskill at right guard. Both will struggle with the Eagles Javon Hargrave, who has the third-most pressures from a defensive tackle in the league. 

If the Eagles defensive line can win this matchup consistently, Purdy will make mistakes all night.

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Eagles Play to Win

The Eagles are better at the fringes, and that matters. As mentioned above, they have advantages with their defensive line when matched up against the Niners offensive line. Philly's offensive line can manage against the fierce 49ers pass rush. The Eagles are better in the red zone. There they rank ninth and 10th in offensive and defensive red zone efficiency. The 49ers are 21st and sixth in those same categories. 

Finally and perhaps, most importantly, Philadelphia is better at in-game decision-making. Sometimes it feels like the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is coaching the game just to survive, while the Eagles are always being coached to win. The Eagles are aggressive at attempting fourth-down plays. However, they also understand when to attempt a fourth down. They're the sixth-best team in the NFL in those situations. They also know when to go for two, and they completely win the game at the fringes.

Kyle Shanahan typically chooses the conservative route. A field goal. A punt. We know this. He’s always done it. And it will cost them in this big game. 

PICK: Eagles (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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NFL - San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles - 01/29/2023

Geoff Schwartz