National Football League

NFC Championship Game odds: How to bet 49ers-Eagles

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 2:28 p.m. ET

Will the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) prove their 8-0 start to the season wasn't a fluke by advancing to Super Bowl LVII?

Or will the San Francisco 49ers (14-4) extend their winning streak to 13 games by ousting the Eagles and earning a spot in Super Bowl LVII?

The storied NFL franchises will meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday in Philadelphia (FOX and FOX Sports App).

The 49ers are seeking their sixth Super Bowl championship but first since Super Bowl XXIX. San Francisco is one win from its eighth NFC title.

The Eagles are seeking their second Super Bowl championship (Super Bowl LII) to go with three pre-Super Bowl NFL championships. Philadelphia is one win from its fourth Super Bowl appearance.

The 49ers lead the all-time series 20-14-1, winning the previous meeting 17-11 on Sept. 19, 2021.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the 49ers-Eagles game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insight and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen on the 49ers' win against the Cowboys

Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen discussed San Francisco's win against Dallas to advance to the NFC Championship Game.

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San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3), 3 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App

Point spread: Eagles -2.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise 49ers cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -154 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.49 total); 49ers +120 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring over/under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

A matchup we have been waiting months to see kicks off Sunday in Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Eagles are the top seed in the NFC, and they have ruled the conference since Week 1, finishing the year with the best record in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers have won 12 in a row and have been the team with the best efficiency in the NFL since rookie Brock Purdy entered the lineup.

My favorite part of this game is the matchup in the trenches. It will feel like old school NFC football on Sunday.

Starting with the trenches, the Eagles have the advantages in this game. We know the 49ers defensive line and pass rush can ruin an offensive game plan. However, the Eagles have the offensive line to neutralize the 49ers pass rush better than any team in the NFL. Philly has two All-Pro linemen plus three others that are either in the Pro Bowl or alternates. The health of right tackle Lane Johnson will be important, as he will be tasked with blocking Nick Bosa. On the other side, the 49ers have a single Trent Williams and then four linemen who will be overmatched against Reddick, Hargrave and Cox.

Advantage, Eagles.

Also, Eagles have the edge at quarterback. Their offense flies because of QB Jalen Hurts, who was close to winning the NFL MVP award before injuring his shoulder. The 49ers offense wins with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy but not because of him. That’s a big difference. We saw last weekend that, when things aren’t perfect, the Niners offense slows down.

It will not be perfect on Sunday and the Eagles pass rush plus pass defense will make it difficult for Purdy to operate.

I like the Eagles to win and cover.

PICK: Eagles (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Clearly, these are the two best teams in the NFC, but it's very difficult to handicap this game because they've played the two weakest schedules in the NFL — Eagles weakest, 49ers second-weakest.

The Eagles have only faced five top-10 defenses this season, but there’s not much you can take from three of those games because they featured backup QBs. Dallas had Cooper Rush, who threw three interceptions, putting their defense in a terrible spot, and Gardner Minshew started at quarterback twice (Saints, Cowboys).

Remember the playoff game against Green Bay when Kyle Shanahan had Jimmy Garoppolo throw the ball 8 times? Well you have to wonder if the Eagles show up with some considerable tweaks, because they grade out as 21st in run defense efficiency.

Dameon Pierce rushed for 139 yards against the Eagles this season. D’Andre Swift rushed for 144 in the opener. Between Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, it feels like the 49ers will run the ball at least 35 times if the Eagles refuse to give up the big play.

Mind you, Rookie QBs haven’t fared well in conference titles games, going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, so the blowout potential is very real.

Could the Eagles offense do what the Chiefs did earlier this season, and slice them up in the 44-23 mold?

PICK: Under 23 points scored by both teams combined (at time of pick) in 1st half at FOX Bet

NFC Championship: Will Jalen Hurts and the Eagles cover against Brock Purdy and the 49ers?

FOX betting analyst Sammy P discusses the NFC championship between the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers.

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

I like how this game is being billed by some as "what is going to happen when the run-heavy Eagles finally meet a solid run defense."

Do these people not realize the Eagles are the fifth most pass-heavy offense in the first half of games? And they operate at the fastest pace of any offense in the first half?

We’re acting like the Eagles are one of the NFL’s more run-heavy teams when it’s the exact opposite.

Meanwhile, why don’t we ask this question about that aspect of the game: The Eagles have the NFL’s best-rushing offense and have earned that ranking vs. a league-average schedule of run defenses. But the 49ers have the NFL’s best run defense which has come thanks to playing the NFL’s third-easiest schedule of run offenses.

The 49ers have played just three games vs. top-10 run offenses this year: a loss to the Falcons, a win over the Raiders and a win over the Cowboys after Dallas’ starting RB suffered a broken leg in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the Eagles, with Jalen Hurts, have played five games against top-10 run defenses, and they’re 4-1 in those games, scoring 35, 35, 26, 24 and 21 points.

When the 49ers' run defense has played a top-10 run offense, the vaunted 49ers' run defense ranks drop to a bottom-10 run defense. Looking only at when teams face top-10 run offenses, the 49ers run defense ranks 23rd in EPA/rush (+0.08), 25th in success rate (51%) and 11th in YPC allowed (4.7).

Frankly, I’d be more concerned about where the 49ers' defense stacks up against top-10 pass offenses, of which the Eagles rank seventh in EPA/att on early-down passes in the first three quarters (ninth in all downs, all game).

Because the 49ers have played the fifth-easiest schedule of pass offenses this year. And when they have played a top-10 pass offense, they’ve allowed staggeringly bad production. Looking at where the 49ers' pass defense ranks on early-down passes in the first three quarters vs. top-10 pass offenses compared to the rest of the NFL vs. those same top-10 pass offenses:

30th in EPA/att (+0.27)
25th in success rate (54%)
28th in YPA (8.8 YPA)
31st in first-down rate (42%)

Naturally, any defense should look worse when playing a top-10 pass offense (games were Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas and Kansas City). But the 49ers' stats weren’t just "worse" – they were bottom-five compared to all other defenses.

Yes, the 49ers are one of the best defenses in the NFL, and yes, the Eagles' offense will look worse than it did last week vs. the Giants.

But when the Eagles have the ball, this is absolutely not "Great Run Defense vs. Great Run Offense" like it’s being billed.

In their last 10 games, the 49ers' defense has played two games vs. top-10 offenses in points/first-half drive this season (Miami, Las Vegas).

The Dolphins put up 10 first-half points (and the first half saw a combined 27 total points), and the Raiders put up 17 first-half points (and the first half saw a combined 31 first-half points).

They’ve played four teams that rank bottom-10 in the metric (Cardinals, Saints, Buccaneers and Commanders) while also facing No. 11 Dallas and No. 12 Seattle.

Yes, the 49ers have the NFL’s best defense, but they’ve played the NFL’s fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.

49ers/Eagles have hit 23-plus points in 24 of 37 games this year, including 13 of 16 started by Hurts.

Since obtaining Christian McCaffrey in Week 7, the 49ers have hit 23-plus in the first half in nine of 13 games (1-of-6 prior).

Brock Purdy began starting games in Week 14. Since then, the 49ers have hit 23-plus points in four of seven games, with the Unders coming vs. the Seahawks, Commanders and Cowboys.

When the Eagles have the ball, my primary concern is the rate of zone the 49ers run, which will limit the passing efficiency of Philadelphia to an extent. Although Hurts still ranks top-15 vs. zone, statistically, he’s worse across the board as compared to man coverage.

I’m not really concerned about the 49ers blitz rate on early downs, as they’ve been terrible at actually generating pressure when blitzing and actually rank bottom-five in pass defense when they do send extra rushers. Philadelphia should lean into deeper passes and use more play action.

When the 49ers have the ball, they must come out early with aggression, as Brock Purdy has rarely had to pass when trailing in the second half, but his limited performance hasn’t been pretty (14-of-23, 61% comp, 0 TDs, 2 INTs). Ideally, aside from running between the tackles rather than behind tackles or to the edges of the defense, where the Eagles have a big advantage, the 49ers should embrace a passing approach which removes play action.

The Eagles are elite vs. play action, and their defense excels defending passes thrown 10-plus yards down the field. Purdy has proven to be elite (top-five) this season at passing from shotgun without play action and letting his receivers pick up YAC. And it’s a weakness of the Eagles defense:

The Eagles' pass defense is first in EPA/att, second in YPA and seventh in success rate this year.

But where do they rank vs. shotgun, no play action over the second half of the season?

24th in EPA/att, 23nd in success rate, 28th in YPA, 31st in completion rate and 31st in passer rating

I still have concerns about Jalen Hurts’ shoulder and the potential for injury, but I think the Eagles can push the right buttons offensively to ensure they’re leading at halftime. And if they are, barring turnovers, I don’t like the 49ers' chances of coming back in the game.

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