National Football League

Ranking the biggest concerns for each NFC South team in 2021

Updated Aug. 16, 2021 3:16 p.m. ET

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By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports

After covering the AFC (North, South, East, West), let's move to the NFC divisions, identifying the issues and concerns that would keep me up at night if I were GM of each team.

We'll start with the NFC South, the division featuring the returning Super Bowl champs. The Bucs have retained the services of all 22 starters from a year ago, but it’s not as easy as that when it comes to running it back. Don’t forget, they lost to the Saints twice last season and did not win their own division. 

These teams all have issues, though the degree differs greatly. Here's my analysis of the NFC South.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Ever since taking over in late January, first-time GM Terry Fontenot, picked off the Saints' staff, has basically been steering a ship equipped with a "governor onboard" otherwise known as the salary cap.

The Falcons' cap was a mess, and that has restricted any decisions Fontenot has made as far as importing talent, with the exception of the draft and the first-round selection of uber-talented TE/WR Kyle Pitts. Other than that, and finding a midlevel salary for RB Mike Davis in free agency, Fontenot's big decisions have had to do with talent that was already in place when he took charge.

That doesn’t diminish the fact that he had to make a couple of big calls that no doubt kept him awake. By renegotiating 36-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan’s deal, Fontenot essentially said "You're our guy" for the next two years at least. After taking on added signing bonus proration, Ryan is unmovable.

Fontenot's other cap-related decision was moving iconic WR Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans in a trade. There was zero room for his salary, and with a roster that will really not undergo a replenishing until spring 2022, it didn’t make sense to hang on to Julio.

After making the tough decisions this year, Fontenot has to hope that league-wide revenues will lead to a 2022 salary-cap increase that allows him some wiggle room to improve his personnel next year.

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For now, the Falcons' brass has to hope that new head coach Arthur Smith and his staff can make this team competitive with the current roster. An improved running game has to be considered a given, due to Smith’s history and offensive acumen. Most recently, Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Titans, who were second in the league in rush yards last season.

This season, Fontenot’s mood might be dictated by the comparisons fans will draw between Pitts and Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields. The former Ohio State QB made sense as an option for the Falcons when they selected Pitts with the No. 4 pick in the draft. This hindsight vision might just play out right in front of our eyes. 

No matter what happens, the Falcons have to find a QB to start grooming as the eventual successor to Ryan, and they have to do it in the next nine months. 

That’s plenty of issues to keep a GM up at night.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Talk about a teardown of epic proportions. The Saints' cap had to make the Falcons' cap look like a walk in the park. New Orleans trimmed more than $100 million just to become compliant on day one of the 2021 league year. 

No team had ever had to perform that task before. Of course, no team had ever spent money like the Saints did in prior years, either, so this was nobody’s fault but their own. The fact that they were able to hang on to as many talented players as they did is a credit to Saints GM Mickey Loomis and his staff.

But if I’m Loomis or head coach Sean Payton, any hope for 2021 has to be pinned on the health of a paper-thin roster as a result of siphoning off all that depth. If ever a team could reconcile limited contact in practice and playing all backups in preseason, it’s the 2021 Saints.

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That’s why the off-the-field drama caused by star WR Michael Thomas (ankle injury and ill-timed rehab) and the possible impending suspension of corner Marshon Lattimore (off-the-field transgressions) are such big deals. Ample replacements don’t exist on the current roster. Add a possible six-to-eight-week absence for front-line kicker Wil Lutz due to a muscle injury, and this roster is already at a tipping point.

Needless to say, the Saints will be leaning on a pro scouting department (now without the leadership of Fontenot) to build back some depth by acquiring — via waivers or trade — cheap players who fall out of favor at other places.

Loomis deals more with the salary cap, so the roster construction mostly falls to Payton. His restlessness won’t settle until a quarterback steps forward after the retirement of the legendary Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is the most accomplished and talented NFL passer on this roster, and as much as Payton wants to incorporate project Taysom Hill, a QB combination will probably become the norm this season.

I have much respect for Payton and his genius on offense, but I see this season as a tough one for the Saints. Don’t get me wrong: They still have really good players, and if healthy, they are capable of winning 10 or 11 games. But they might have the least margin for error of any NFC team, and that will keep a lot of people in the Bayou up at night.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

In the entire NFC, this might be the team that intrigues me the most. The Panthers have quietly put together some pieces that can be developed into a contender. They are not there yet, but I like the direction they're headed.

They've made such progress mainly because their personnel decision-making is sound. The Panthers understand that value in the first round is found in big guys and fast guys. In coach Matt Rhule’s first two NFL drafts, he selected defensive lineman Derrick Brown and corner Jaycee Horn in the first round. Both are foundational players — not bells-and-whistles types but solid contributors who should be on the field, if healthy, for 95% of the snaps each and every season.

That said, my guess is that what keeps Rhule and GM Scott Fitterer awake at night is third downs. That is where the Panthers really struggled last season. On offense, they converted only 39% on third downs, and defensively, they allowed 49%. Both rank 28th in a league that is all about matchups.

These numbers have to improve if this team wants the win column to do the same. Some of this falls on having first-year coordinators on both sides of the ball in 2020, but it also involves a lack of poise and execution by players when under the most pressure. This is where the rubber hits the road.

Sam Darnold and his Jets were dead last in the league in converting third downs last season, at 34%. This is something that plagued him in college at USC as well, so history is not on his side. Darnold should have much better weapons with Carolina, but he has to be much better himself. 

Having said that, I like the move to Darnold. He’s an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater, who failed in too many fourth quarters and in my mind has become physically limited. Bridgewater is not a big man (6-foot-2, 215 pounds), and thus, I think he wears down over the long NFL season. 

The 6-foot-3, 225-pound Darnold is bigger, stronger and more athletic, but the biggest question with him is if he's limited by his decision-making.  

No matter who plays QB for the Panthers, the key to converting third downs is the health of RB Christian McCaffrey. He's a matchup nightmare if he’s right, but durability has not been his strong suit, and that’s a worry. Rookie Chuba Hubbard, a fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma State, is the backup. He has never seen the speed of the NFL game, nor is he a guy a defensive game plan has to adjust to on third downs.

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Carolina had fewer possessions than every other team in the league except one in 2020, which takes me to the defense and its total of seven interceptions. Only one team had fewer: Houston, with three. Obviously, these numbers are problematic. 

I would be worried about Haason Reddick, a former Temple linebacker for coach Rhule whom Arizona way over-drafted (13th overall in 2017) and then declined to pick up his fifth-year option. Reddick’s time in Arizona was not the most productive: He recorded five of his 20 career sacks in a Week 14 game vs. the Giants in 2020. He's just 6-feet-1 and 235 pounds, and his ability to get off blocks will be suspect wherever he lines up. 

The addition of top-pick Horn will help in multiple ways in the secondary, but he can’t rush the passer. I’m not sure the Panthers have enough individual talent in this area. Until they find more rushers who can get home vs. one-on-one blocks, the Panthers will have to rely on innovative pressure packages.

For my most intriguing team in the NFC, a .500 record is the next hurdle to overcome.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Having all the starters back from a championship team is great, but having them back as hungry and healthy as they were in 2020 is another story. Then again, with never-satisfied QB Tom Brady, nobody gets too comfortable in their own skin. 

I love to read and hear the comments by Bruce Arians as well. A veteran coach knows when to hug 'em and when to cuss ‘em, and Arians has been more vocal and more critical than at any time in his career that I can remember, and we’re only a couple of weeks into preseason.

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On both sides of the ball, the Buccaneers took the first half of 2020 to get to know one another’s roles and comfort levels with their systems. They did not hit their stride until the three-quarter pole, and then they closed like a champ. This season, that learning curve will not be there, meaning they should start much stronger. 

That's if their luck on the injury front holds out. Last season, they were the healthiest team in the league; their starters missed fewer games than any other teams' front-line players. Can they expect that good fortune again?  

Health is always a crapshoot and the unknown factor, but roster depth can help a team withstand and endure when players go down. For the most part, the Bucs' depth was not tested last season.

As for the roster, the biggest issue I see is at running back. I’m not a giant Leonard Fournette guy. Last season, I thought Ronald Jones II actually gave the Bucs more acceleration between the tackles in a north-south direction. 

If I were Bucs GM Jason Licht, I would still have some concern about those front-line guys. I do like the addition of longtime Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, who brings an elusiveness and suddenness. Don’t sleep on this addition as a fan or fantasy player. On third down especially, Bernard should be a factor.

Getting TE O.J. Howard back from the injured list only adds to the number of explosive weapons at Brady’s disposal. Howard's ruptured Achilles was the one injury of note for this team last season.

On defense, it’s hard to not expect similar results with coordinator Todd Boles calling the shots. He orchestrated a defense that was top-five in sacks without having to be top of the heap in blitzing. That’s hard to do. 

Now add first-round pick Joe Tryon, an edge rusher from Washington, to the mix, and I can only say the rich got richer. There was a run on edge rushers late in the first round of this year’s draft. Credit the Bucs' scouting staff for identifying and picking the right one. Early returns have been very positive, and Tryon figures to be on the field in most of the team's sub packages.

As with the Chiefs in the AFC, Tampa's decision-makers have very little keeping them awake, comparably speaking. That said, things will come up that they didn’t have to deal with last season, I promise. This league consistently offers surprises around every corner.

How the Bucs manage those curveballs will determine if they can put yet another ring on Brady's finger.

Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.

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in this topic

National Football League

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons

Tom Brady

Matt Ryan

Kyle Pitts

Jameis Winston

Taysom Hill

Marshon Lattimore

Jaycee Horn

Sam Darnold

Teddy Bridgewater

Chuba Hubbard

Christian McCaffrey

Haason Reddick

Leonard Fournette

Ronald Jones

O.J. Howard

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

Giovani Bernard