National Football League

NFC South playoff race: Bucs have easy path, but Falcons, Saints still alive

Updated Dec. 28, 2023 10:49 a.m. ET

Just two weeks are left in the NFL regular season, and the NFC South is still close enough that one game separates first and third place.

Across the league, the average gap between first and third is 3.1 games, and only the AFC South — with a three-team tie at 8-7 — is more closely contested at the top.

Tampa Bay stands alone atop the division at 8-7, with Atlanta and New Orleans still alive at 7-8. There's a clear hierarchy of just how much each team needs to do to claim a division title:

The Bucs can clinch by winning either of their remaining games, at home Sunday vs. New Orleans or at the Panthers in Week 18.
The Saints can clinch by winning their two remaining games and having the Bucs lose at the Panthers in Week 18.
The Falcons can clinch by beating the Saints and having the Bucs lose their two remaining games.

"Hey," you say, "there wasn't even that much math involved."

Alas, there will be. There are (gasp) wild-card possibilities for all three teams still in contention, wild as that seems.

There are four games with direct relevance to the final NFC South standings: Saints-Bucs and Falcons-Bears this weekend, then Saints-Falcons and Bucs-Panthers in Week 18. Those four games yield 16 different sets of non-tie outcomes — the Bucs win the division in 12 of those scenarios, and the Falcons and Saints two each.

The NFC South champ is now locked in as the NFC's No. 4 seed, which means an opening date with the Cowboys or Eagles, the best of the conference's wild-card teams.

Here's a look at each team's situation.

Bucs: Just win one, clinch the division

Tampa Bay's four-game win streak has given the Bucs control of the division, and a good shot at winning it for the third straight year, a franchise first. The New York Times playoff simulator has them with an 84% chance to make the playoffs. In the Saints and Panthers, they face two teams they've already beaten — the first Saints game in New Orleans was a 26-9 win, one of their more lopsided this season, but it also was a one-score game with four minutes to play.

If the Bucs lose both games, they're still technically alive for a wild card at 8-9, but they'd need a world of help, with a less than a 1% chance to make it by the NYT calculations. Multiple teams would need to lose out, and Bucs fans would be rooting for AFC outcomes to help set up a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker needed to grab the last spot. (Go ahead and win one of the next two).

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Saints: Must win out to stay alive

Last week's loss to the Rams hurt their chances, but the Saints still have a path to first place: beat the Bucs and Falcons, two teams they've lost to this season, and get the Bucs to lose to the two-win Panthers in Week 18. Then the division title is theirs, for the first time in the post-Drew Brees era. Losing to the Bucs on Sunday eliminates them from any playoff contention.

Beating the Bucs in Tampa would keep the Saints in contention for a wild card as well. If they win out and finish 9-8, they have a 23% chance of making the playoffs, even if the Bucs beat the Panthers for the division title. They'd need the Rams or Seahawks to lose their remaining two games, as well as the Packers and Vikings losing one each. Crazier things have happened.

Falcons: Could even win division at 8-9

Having spent a year as The Division Whose Champ Had A Losing Record, the NFC South would really like to have a team with nine or 10 wins, but there's a model in which an 8-9 team could once again host a playoff game.

The beneficiary of that would be the Falcons. In one scenario out of the 16 remaining, they can lose to the Bears on Sunday to drop to 7-9 and still win the division by beating the Saints and having the Bucs lose their last two. It's a three-way tie at 8-9, and the Falcons win by having the best division record at 4-2.

The Falcons can also win the division at 9-8 if they win out and the Bucs lose out. And like the Saints, they'll be alive for a wild card if they beat the Bears, with a 27% chance to make the playoffs. Again, they need the Rams or Seahawks to lose two, the Packers and VIkings to lose one each in the simplest of paths to the postseason.

There you have it. The Bucs have full control over the division, but as a team that dropped six out of seven games at one point, no win is a guarantee, so anything can happen here in the final two weeks.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.