National Football League

Football odds: Why you should bet on Ole Miss to cover against Alabama, more

Updated Oct. 1, 2021 7:45 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

While the world was watching an offensive explosion between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys at Jerry World last Monday night, sports bettors had already turned their attention to the weekend ahead.

There are a couple of great matchups this weekend, so let's break down which wagers you should target before the lines move.

Here are my early week best bets (7-7-1 YTD), with lines via FOX Bet, plus Friday update:

Ole Miss (+14.5 at FOX Bet) at Alabama

This is too many points to spot the Rebels offense.

Nobody has banged the Matt Corral for Heisman drum harder than yours truly, and I cannot wait to see what he and Lane Kiffin have in store for the Crimson Tide with an extra week to prepare.

It’s always dangerous betting against Nick Saban, but this Alabama defense is going to give up plenty of points and big plays.

I’ll gladly take over two scores in a game that should be an absolute track meet with a total of 77.5.

PICK: Ole Miss (+14.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points (or win outright)

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5 at FOX Bet) at Denver Broncos

Finally, Denver gets a team with a pulse.

After opening the season against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets – who are a combined 0-9 – the Broncos will face their toughest test to date in former league MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Also, injuries are starting to take a toll on Denver with Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Josey Jewell, and Ronald Darby all getting hurt over the last few weeks, and Bradley Chubb still on injured reserve.

I’ll go against this overvalued Broncos squad with no hesitation.

PICK: Ravens (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

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PICK: Six-point teaser: Vikings from +1.5 to +7.5 vs Browns; Lions from +3 to +9 vs. Bears (-115 at FOX Bet)

If you’re not familiar, a two-team teaser allows you to move a side or total six points. But you must win both legs of the teaser to cash. Let’s tease Minnesota up through the 3 and 7 and move Detroit from +3 to +9.

The Vikings are literally two plays away from being 3-0, and their offense has put together three straight 400-yard performances. There’s a lot to like with them getting over a touchdown in the Death Star.

And I’m giddy thinking about morphing a Matt Nagy-led team in the Bears into a nine-point favorite. That’s easy math to get behind. Realistically, Chicago might have the worst offensive line in the entire league. No hyperbole.

FRIDAY UPDATE:

No. 8 Arkansas @ No. 2 Georgia (12 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Point spread: Georgia -16.5 (Georgia favored to win by more than 16.5 points, otherwise Arkansas covers)
Moneyline: Georgia -800 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $11.25 total); Arkansas +600 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Total scoring over/under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined

All this Arkansas love is starting to get ridiculous.

This game actually opened Georgia -19 and eight of every ten bets have poured in on the Hogs since the market posted. People see an undefeated Hogs team catching three scores and they’re just flocking to bet it. Be careful.

Georgia has the best defense in the country for my money and Arkansas will really struggle to move the football – especially in the red zone. The Dawgs held Clemson to three points, UAB to seven, South Carolina to 13 and Vanderbilt off the board. This one feels like 38-14 with how dominant the Bulldogs are on both sides of the field.

I don’t even care if J.T. Daniels can’t go and Stetson Bennett has to start. Lay the wood.

PICK: Georgia (-16.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 16.5 points

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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