National Football League

NFL odds Week 2: Patriots and Saints lines, best bets

Updated Sep. 18, 2022 11:11 a.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
Gambling Analyst

It’s hard to believe we’re already halfway through September.

Our best bets (6-1 YTD) are off to a strong start, and I’m rolling with five plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Liberty Flames at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Lay this number before it gets to 17.

Wake quarterback Sam Hartman returned last week and shredded Vanderbilt to the tune of 300 passing yards and four touchdowns. I’m well aware that Vanderbilt is no juggernaut, but neither is Liberty.

The Demon Deacons are bigger, faster and stronger all over the football field, and this is one of those games that could get ugly in a hurry for the Flames. I think Hartman and Co. are up by two or three touchdowns at halftime and fully expect them to keep their foot on the gas.

Wake needs to find its rhythm before hosting Clemson next week.

PICK: Wake Forest (-16.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 16.5 points

Toledo Rockets at Ohio State Buckeyes

Best of luck to Toledo’s defense this Saturday.

Ohio State’s offense is starting to feel the internal heat after only scoring 21 points against Notre Dame and 45 against lowly Arkansas State, a game in which the Buckeyes were favored by 44.5 and barely won by 30.

OSU is expected to get future NFL first-round receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba back, which is bad news for a Toledo secondary that was already way overmatched. C.J. Stroud should have a field day at the Horseshoe.

I like the Buckeyes to get to 50 by themselves.

PICK: Over 61.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Miami Hurricanes at Texas A&M Aggies

It’s sounding like the Haynes King era is over in College Station.

Expect LSU transfer Max Johnson to be QB1 for Jimbo Fisher’s club this Saturday, a decision that probably should’ve taken place a whole lot sooner. The Aggies have all the talent in the world, and now they have a quarterback that’ll get the playmakers the ball and get the hell out of the way.

Meanwhile, Miami finally gets its first real test of the season after breezing by Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss. It’s impossible to gauge how good the Hurricanes are right now, and I’m willing to go against them in a tough spot.

Mario Cristobal will build a monster down on South Beach, but I think it’ll take time before the ‘Canes are ready to win the big ones on the road.

PICK: Texas A&M (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

The betting public is lining up to bet Mitch Trubisky against Bill Belichick.

Wild, huh?

Obviously, it’s about so much more than those two, but I love this Patriots' defense against a very vanilla Steelers offense that was outgained and out possessed against the Bengals. Trubisky is nothing special, and Najee Harris is nowhere near 100% after getting dinged up last Sunday.

It’s difficult to ignore the reverse line movement against the Steelers. Most American sportsbooks are reporting more bets on Pittsburgh, yet multiple Las Vegas bookmakers told me their sharpest players bet New England -1/-1.5.

I’ll gladly bet against Pittsburgh’s defense without T.J. Watt.

PICK: Patriots (-130 ML at FOX Bet) to win straight up

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

The betting line tells a story in this one.

Tampa opened as a 3.5-point road favorite, but the line crossed through 3 by Wednesday afternoon. That’s the ultimate sign of respect for an underdog that has a ton of sustained success against Tom Brady as of late.

Dennis Allen’s defense is 4-0 against Brady in the regular season since he became a Buccaneer, and I like that trend to continue. The Saints’ ability to attack Brady and a weakened offensive line up the middle is massive.

Don’t sleep on the New Orleans offense, either. Jameis Winston was putting up serious numbers before his ACL injury last October, and the Saints are even deeper with a healthy Michael Thomas and rookie wideout Chris Olave.

PICK: Saints (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win straight up)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.