National Football League

6 NFL bets to make now that the draft is complete

Updated Jul. 21, 2021 9:00 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Betting on this year’s NFL Draft was very profitable for the crew. We hit all our draft position props and nailed the Kyle Pitts tip sheet. So what's next?

Our friends at FOX Bet are already taking future bets and win total over/unders, and they've also churned out tons of player props for the upcoming season, including markets for a lot of the promising rookies.

I’ve circled six bets that I’m ready to place right now (with all odds via FOX Bet).

Kyle Pitts Over 7.5 touchdowns (to catch eight or more TDs)
-115; bet $10 to win $8.75, plus your $10 back

Pitts is going to be an absolute weapon in Atlanta. He’ll be a matchup nightmare at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds because he’s too fast for linebackers and too massive for safeties. Teams also can’t afford to double Pitts, because you can’t let guys such as Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley run free.

Pitts will make his bread inside the 10-yard line, where he’ll receive plenty of jump-ball targets from quarterback Matt Ryan.

Trevor Lawrence Under 4,175.5 passing yards (to pass for 4,175 yards or fewer)
-110; bet $10 to win $9.09, plus your $10 back

Can we pump the breaks already? Asking Lawrence to throw for 4,200 yards while saving the city of Jacksonville in his rookie season is an incredibly tall order.

Peyton Manning (3,739) and Aaron Rodgers (4,038) didn’t surpass 4,175 yards in their first full seasons, and Lawrence shouldn’t either. Even with the extra game, that’s a ton of yards. The Jags barely ran the ball last year, but Urban Meyer will change all that.

Jaylen Waddle Over 730.5 receiving yards (to tally 731 receiving yards or more)
-110; bet $10 to win $9.09, plus your $10 back

Waddle is my favorite receiver in this rookie class because of his versatility. He can line up anywhere on the field, and there isn’t a route he can’t run. Speed kills in the NFL; it would be in Miami’s best interest to get the ball in Waddle’s hands and let him make plays. I’m not sure how many times he’ll cross the goal line, but I see 1,000 yards in his near future.

Micah Parsons to win Defensive ROY
+450; bet $10 to win $45, plus your $10 back

Parsons is the betting favorite, and understandably so. He was projected to be a top-five pick before opting out of his final season at Penn State because of the pandemic. He’ll start at middle linebacker for one of the most important brands in the NFL and be a menace all over the field. Parsons should get a ton of votes after Dallas makes a much-expected improvement on D.

Patriots to make the playoffs
+135; bet $10 to win $13.50, plus your $10 back

I’m all over New England in a bounce-back campaign. Bill Belichick doesn’t take losing very well, as evidenced by all his offseason roster retooling. There is no way I’m betting against The Hoodie coming off a losing season. He has been in the film room for four months scheming and plotting his revenge.

Eventually, Belichick will realize that rookie quarterback Mac Jones gives the Pats the best chance to win and make the necessary switch under center.

Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
+550; bet $10 to win $55, plus your $10 back

Why not? Kansas City had one weakness in the Super Bowl – offensive line. Both of its tackles were sidelined by injuries, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defensive line ate them alive.

In response, the Chiefs completely overhauled the hogs by trading for Orlando Brown and signing Joe Thuney, Austin Blythe and Kyle Long. That’ll do.

No team in the league has more offensive weapons than Kansas City, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the universe. I will gladly risk $100 right now at +550 because that price will only drop as the season rolls along. Remember, Andy Reid’s bunch was +175 when last year’s playoffs started. Always bet the right team at the right price.

Assuming the Chiefs are a top-two team in the AFC, they’ll likely be favored in every playoff game in the conference. Having that futures ticket in your back pocket would allow you to hedge in the AFC Championship or Super Bowl if need be.

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Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.