National Football League

NFL, College Football betting action report: Bettors all over Ravens, Lions

Published Dec. 28, 2023 11:34 a.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

For the second straight week, the Baltimore Ravens are in the biggest game on the NFL oddsboard. And after watching what happened on Christmas night in San Francisco, the betting masses can’t get enough of Lamar Jackson & Co. in their showdown vs. the Miami Dolphins.

"As anticipated, the public is massively in favor of Baltimore, following the Ravens stomping the 49ers," PointsBet trader Ethan Useloff said.

While Sunday’s Dolphins-Ravens game is the marquee matchup in the NFL Week 17 odds market, there’s also the Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night. Oh, and a plethora of big bowl games, capped by Monday’s College Football Playoff semifinals.

There’s something for all of you in those matchups and more, as oddsmakers and sharp bettors dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.

Ravens all the Rage

Baltimore closed as a 6.5-point road underdog against San Francisco. The Ravens then picked off Brock Purdy four times — and added another interception off backup Sam Darnold — while Jackson vaulted to the favorite on the NFL MVP oddsboard in a 33-19 victory.

The Ravens are an NFL-best 12-3 straight up (SU) and are tied for the league lead at 10-5 against the spread (ATS). The Dolphins are 11-4 SU and join Baltimore at 10-5 ATS.

Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite vs. Miami, and in point-spread betting, the Ravens are attracting 82% of early money at PointsBet, a Fanatics Experience. This week could be a classic letdown spot for Baltimore, with another high-stakes game, as the Ravens and Dolphins fight for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

However, Miami is coming off a 22-20 home victory over Dallas, also a high-profile game. So the Dolphins have to charge up two weeks in a row, as well. As Useloff noted above, the public is already all over Baltimore at PointsBet.

"This goes for the moneyline and spread," Useloff said. "So an ideal result would be Miami comfortably securing a victory to wrap up the AFC East title."

While the Ravens are popular on the spread and moneyline, the Dolphins — or at least, a Dolphin — will likely attract a lot of attention in player prop markets.

"The book expects to see significant action on Tyreek Hill props, including Over on receiving yards and on Anytime TD. So these not cashing would be favorable," Useloff said.

Did Dolphins prove their Super Bowl legitimacy win vs. Cowboys?

Buy-In on the Lions

Detroit is 11-4 SU/10-5 ATS, another solid spread-covering outfit. Dallas is 10-5 SU/9-6 ATS and is on a two-game skid. But those two losses came at Buffalo — which is surging late — and at Miami, which has been solid all season.

Action at PointsBet is interesting. On the spread, the Lions are getting 59% of tickets and 51% of money — almost dead-even two-way cash. But on the moneyline, Detroit is attracting 91% of tickets/73% of money to pull the outright road upset as a 6-point underdog.

"Dallas is favored by nearly a touchdown, as they host the Lions on Saturday night, despite having a worse record than the NFC North champions," Useloff said. "As a result, bettors are all over Detroit, seeing ten-fold the number of bets on the moneyline. Dallas winning by multiple scores would be the best-case scenario."

NFL Rocks on FOX

FOX and the FOX Sports App host a couple games with playoff implications this week: New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, as we learn if anybody really wants to win the NFC South; and Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, with both teams needing a win to keep hope alive.

Tampa Bay (8-7 SU/9-6 ATS) is actually playing as if it wants to win the division. The Bucs are on a four-game SU win streak (3-1 ATS), and at PointsBet, they’re 2.5-point favorites against the Saints (7-8 SU/4-10-1 ATS). 

Useloff said the book wouldn’t mind if the Bucs kept rolling.

"We would like to see a defensive clash in Tampa on Sunday, that concludes with the home team covering the spread," he said. "With the total sitting around 42.5, the public likes the Over. It’s been bet up, with potential to continue to climb."

Indeed, by percentage, betting on the total has much more consensus than spread betting. As of Wednesday night, the Over was landing 76% of tickets and a whopping 98% of dollars at PointsBet.

Seattle and Pittsburgh both seemed on the playoff track until untimely skids. The Seahawks (8-7 SU/7-6-2 ATS) dumped four in a row from Weeks 11-14, but rebounded with wins the past two weeks. That included a 20-17 home victory over Philadelphia. The Steelers (8-7 SU and ATS) dropped three straight games before bouncing back last week with a 34-11 home rout of Cincinnati.

Useloff made a fair point regarding wagers on this game: The state of Washington only allows in-person betting at tribal locations, while Pennsylvania has a robust online/mobile betting market, along with retail sportsbooks.

"The liability sits with the Steelers, both with the spread and moneyline," Useloff said. "Part of this stems from online sports betting being legal in Pennsylvania and not in Washington. This directly impacts liquidity in the overall market for this tilt in Seattle."

Pittsburgh is landing 61% of spread bets and a hefty 87% of spread money.

"The best result for the book would be the Seahawks covering," Useloff said.

Could Mike Tomlin leave Steelers? Jay Glazer gives updates on NFL coaching carousel

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay noted that NFL Week 17 odds are tricky to work with, due to playoff scenarios and the continuing trend of QB changes. His first play this week involves the former, as he’s taking the Cowboys -6 against the Lions in a battle of playoff-bound teams.

"Dallas is a rare favorite of 6 or more," McKay said. "To me, this is a tough spot for Detroit. The Lions are going on the road after clinching the division, and they’re playing a very strong home team."

McKay’s second play involves a team that made a QB change last week, with Atlanta moving from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke. The Falcons visit the Chicago Bears this week, and Heinicke is No. 1 on the depth chart — though midweek, he’s questionable with an ankle issue.

McKay is on the Bears -3.

"The market loves the Falcons this year. But we have a spot where a dome team travels to play an outdoor team in December," he said. "The Bears’ defense has stepped up since trading for Montez Sweat and should cause problems for Heinicke and the Falcons offense.

"On the other side, Justin Fields is playing for his future, either with Chicago or another team."

The Carolina Panthers are a meager 2-13 SU/5-9-1 ATS. But McKay likes the Panthers +7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7 SU and ATS), who are on an ill-timed four-game losing streak.

"Jacksonville is struggling and now laying 7 points against a Carolina team that has been covering the spread," McKay said, alluding to the Panthers going 3-1 ATS in their last four games. "Also, the status of Trevor Lawrence is up in the air, and the Jacksonville defense has been exposed the last few weeks."

Lawrence has a shoulder issue and didn’t practice Wednesday.

On Campus Sharp Side

All the big bowl games take place over the next few days. On New Year’s Day, the College Football Playoff semifinal odds market takes center stage.

College football betting expert Paul Stone has a CFP opinion that he’s backing with money on the first semifinal: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

Michigan is a 1.5- or 2-point favorite, depending on your choice of sportsbook. But Stone isn’t worried about getting 1.5 or 2 points with Alabama. Rather, the Texas-based handicapper likes short underdog Alabama to beat Michigan outright.

In Stone’s opinion, Michigan's offense has slipped a notch this season. He noted that running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are both well behind last year's numbers, while quarterback J.J. McCarthy has only one touchdown pass in the Wolverines' past five games.

Rose Bowl Preview: Will Alabama topple top-seeded Michigan?

If Michigan closes as the betting favorite, it would mark the first time since 2007 that Alabama has been an underdog in back-to-back games. The Crimson Tide were 5.5-point ‘dogs against Georgia in the SEC final and won 27-24.

Stone is also leaning into a couple of College Football Playoff stats, dating to the 2014 inception of the four-team postseason event:

• SEC teams are 14-3 vs. non-SEC opponents in the College Football Playoff
• Big Ten teams are 3-6 in their nine CFP games — and Ohio State has all three wins

"Since struggling to find its identity early in the season, Alabama has made steady strides over the course of the season," Stone said. "The teams are certainly close in terms of overall talent, but I'll side with the SEC pedigree when the stakes are at their highest."

So, Alabama moneyline it is, in the range of +105 to +110.

Every (Monday Night) ‘Dog Has Its Day

In case you haven’t been scoring it at home, underdogs are on an 8-0 upset run in Monday night games. Baltimore’s aforementioned 33-19 victory at San Francisco marked the latest win in that streak.

However, neither Week 17 nor 18 have Monday night games. So the next Monday night matchup won’t take place until Super Wild Card Weekend, on Jan. 15. We’ll see if the postseason changes the fortunes of Monday night underdogs.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

One big bettor had a forgettable Christmas Day. Caesars Sports took a $220,000 wager on Chiefs -10 vs. the Raiders. The closest Kansas City came to covering that number was when it scored a second-quarter touchdown to take a 7-3 lead.

Las Vegas responded with two defensive TDs literally within seconds of each other — on back-to-back plays from scrimmage — to take a 17-7 halftime lead. First, defensive tackle Bilal Nichols returned a fumble eight yards for a touchdown to make it 9-7 with 4:55 left in the second quarter. The Raiders’ 2-point attempt failed.

Then, just seven seconds later, Raiders cornerback Jack Jones picked off Patrick Mahomes and ran it in for the score. Las Vegas made the subsequent 2-point attempt to go up 17-7.

The Raiders added a third-quarter field goal for a 20-7 lead, and K.C. never got in sync, ultimately losing 20-14. So the house played Mr. Grinch.

Caesars noted one more big play in Monday’s Christmas Day NFL tripleheader: $110,000 on Giants +14 at the Eagles. Philadelphia held a 20-3 halftime lead, but let New York chip away to 20-18 by the end of the third quarter. The comeback came after rookie QB Tommy DeVito was benched in favor of Tyrod Taylor.

Philly ended up winning 33-25, but the Giants covered. So the bettor profited $100,000, for a $210,000 total payout.

With so many big games these next few days — the aforementioned NFL and CFP contests, plus the other four New Year’s Six bowl games, among others — rest assured there’ll be a lot of major wagers dropping at sportsbooks nationwide.

But 99.99999% of us don’t have that kind of cash. So keep it reasonable — don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. 

Enjoy the upcoming football buffet!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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