National Football League

NFL divisional round odds: How to bet Cowboys-49ers

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 2:36 p.m. ET

The Dallas Cowboys (13-5) and San Francisco 49ers (14-4) will play in the NFC divisional round Sunday in a rematch of a game that featured one of the most famous plays in NFL history that happened 31 years earlier.

In the NFC Championship Game on Jan. 10, 1982, the 49ers beat the Cowboys 28-27 after Dwight Clark made "The Catch" in the corner of the end zone on a pass from Joe Montana with 51 seconds remaining.

The 49ers went on to win Super Bowl XVI over the Cincinnati Bengals, 26–21.

The Cowboys lead the all-time series 19-18-1 but the 49ers won the previous meeting 23-17 in the 2021 NFC wild-card round on Jan. 16.

Dallas has won six of the past eight games against San Francisco since 2005.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Cowboys-49ers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

Cowboys (13-5) at San Francisco 49ers (14-4), 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App

Point spread: 49ers -3.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Cowboys cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -213 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Cowboys +160 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

Will Cowboys pull big upset vs. 49ers?

Colin Cowherd applauds the Cowboys for their monster win but says everything works against them against the 49ers.

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

This will be a brawl in the trenches and I cannot wait. While much of the attention when it comes to the Niners' offense has focused on their rookie quarterback and all the fantastic explosive offensive weapons, the heartbeat of the offense is their line.

Outside of Trent Williams, their line isn’t especially talented, but the guys play well together and understand their assignments. They stay ahead of the chains, which keeps them out of stressful pass protection situations. This Cowboys defensive front is outstanding, and other than against Williams, they have the advantage. It doesn’t mean the 49ers can’t scheme up success or score points, but it will be more difficult than usual.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defensive line is going to eat. You will find no bigger fan of the Cowboys offensive line over the last seven years than me, but they are at a disadvantage in this game. Nick Bosa vs. either Smith (Tyron, Tyler) is a mismatch. The young Smith at left tackle (Tyler) is not quite ready for the speed and intensity that Bosa brings, and the elder Smith (Tyron) is playing out of a position at right tackle. Arik Armstead and Charles Omenihu inside have the advantage over everyone but Zack Martin.

For these reasons I believe this game will go under.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The word of the day when it comes to this massive NFC clash is "projection" because these teams truly have not been tested by prior opponents like they’re about to be tested on Sunday afternoon.

First, these teams haven’t met yet this year.

Second, when these teams met in the playoffs last year, it was with Jimmy Garoppolo nursing a badly injured thumb on his throwing hand that hurt him a ton. So Kyle Shanahan made massive adjustments, and the 49ers went an insane 70% run on early downs, despite the Cowboys loading the box on 88% of these plays. As expected, these runs didn’t go over well. But the 49ers still were able to hold on for a 23-17 win in Dallas. But considering the conditions surrounding that game, with the 49ers run rate and quarterback injury, it’s hard to take much of anything away from it.

Third, we’ve got an untested Brock Purdy against an aggressive Cowboys defense.

And fourth, we’ve got Dak Prescott playing against one of his only tough defensive challenges of the year.

Since Dak Prescott returned from injury in Week 7, the Cowboys offense has played the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. They played just two top-10 defenses in those 12 games but were extremely successful in both games:

Dak went 27-of-35, averaged 9.9 YPA, +0.28 EPA/att and 57% success in a 40-34 win over the Eagles in Week 16.
Dak went 25-of-33, averaged 9.2 YPA, +0.61 EPA/att and 59% success in a 31-14 win over the Bucs last week.

While that sounds great, there were a couple of clunkers along the way. Both were on the road. Prescott struggled in Green Bay, completing just 5.8 YPA and averaging -0.15 EPA/att vs. the Packers, and in the final game of the year, he averaged just 3.5 YPA with -0.42 EPA/att.

Now, Prescott is about to face the zone-heavy defense of the 49ers. San Francisco plays more zone (fourth-most) than any team remaining in the playoffs. Over the second half of the season, Dak has performed at a top-10 rate whether the defense has played man or zone. But one thing rings true about the 49ers' secondary, and that is throwing deep on them is their key weak point.

San Francisco’s defense ranks first against the run.

San Francisco’s defense ranks first against passes thrown less than 15 yards.

But San Francisco’s defense ranks 31st against passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield, allowing +0.71 EPA and 54% success.

In the first three quarters of games (eliminating the fourth quarter due to game script), the Cowboys have the 14th-highest pass rate over the second half of the season. On early downs, that drops to 18th.

Instead, they throw between 1-5 air yards at the highest rate in the NFL. They will need to make an adjustment there if they want to have success vs. the 49ers.

Over the second half of the season, out of 33 quarterbacks, Dak ranked 15th in EPA/att, 11th in YPA and sixth in success rate when throwing 15-plus yards downfield.

So he’s shown he can succeed this season throwing vertically, and that’s how he will need to attack the 49ers.

Last week vs. the 49ers, Geno Smith only attempted eight passes 15-plus yards downfield, completing just three. Dak, meanwhile, completed 6-of-7 vs. the Bucs.

Then there is Purdy. Since starting his first game in Week 14, he’s 6-0 and has faced two of the above-average defenses that Prescott also faced (Tampa Bay and Washington). The 49ers scored 35 and 37 points in those two games, with Purdy averaging over 8.8 YPA in each contest.

Purdy played extremely aggressively last week, throwing 37% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield, the highest in the NFL.

Since taking over for Jimmy G, in the first three quarters of games, Purdy is throwing 10-plus yards downfield at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and 20-plus yards at the eighth-highest rate.

He’s throwing 1-5 air yards at the 26th-highest rate and 1-9 air yards at the 25th-highest rate.

Compare that to Jimmy G, who threw 10-plus yards downfield at the 30th-highest rate and 1-9 air yards at the 14th-highest rate.

And that’s the reason why Purdy’s aDOT in the first three quarters ranks 18th while Jimmy G’s ranked 34th.

This will be the first true test for Purdy, as the Cowboys have the only top-10 pass defense he’s faced, and since playing the Bucs in Week 14, Purdy has done nothing but face below-average pass defenses.

Dallas also brings a ton of pressure, ranking first in pressure rate by a mile and blitzing at a below-average rate.

If the Cowboys don’t blitz and don’t record pressure, Purdy will certainly tear them up, as he leads the NFL in a variety of metrics, including YPA and completion rate.

The wild thing about Purdy, which speaks to Shanahan, is natural pressure, the kind that Shanahan brings with consistency, doesn’t bother him at all.

He ranks fourth in EPA/att, fifth in success rate, and fifth in YPA when pressured but not blitzed.

But when pressured off of blitzes, that ranking drops to 18th in EPA/att, 26th in success rate, and 43rd in YPA out of 47 quarterbacks.

When kept clean, Purdy is top-5 if the defense isn’t blitzing and top-10 if the defense blitzes.

The bottom line is, Purdy is top-5 when the defense does not blitz, whether it generates pressure or not.

That ranking drops to top-10 if the defense blitzes but doesn’t generate pressure.

And it drops to below average if the defense blitzes and gets pressure.

If Prescott can hit on the deep balls and the Cowboys don’t increase their blitz rate, these teams likely can combine to clear this total, but I am skeptical.

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