National Football League

NFL 'Down the Stretch' Awards: Sorry J.J. Watt, Aaron Rodgers is the MVP

Published Dec. 2, 2014 1:33 p.m. ET

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The mad NFL playoff scramble that occurs every December is shaping up as being even wackier than usual.

-- With two straight losses and a sputtering offense, the Arizona Cardinals (9-3) risk becoming the first team in NFL history to open with a 9-1 record and fail to make the playoffs.

-- Twelve of the 16 AFC teams legitimately remain in postseason contention at .500 or better, including all four clubs in the AFC North at 7-5 or better.

-- And barring a 4-0 run by Atlanta (5-7) or New Orleans (5-7) to end the 2014 season, the NFC South will become the third division in the past seven seasons with a winner at .500 or below yet still enjoy the luxury of hosting a first-round playoff game.

Here is a look at some of the biggest winners and losers through Week 13 as well as the third-quarter frontrunners for the NFL's year-end awards. My quarter-season and midseason picks are also included:

This sentiment is not a slight on Houston defensive end J.J. Watt. He may still get my MVP vote on the ballot that I will submit to the Associated Press at season's end. But Rodgers is playing the game's toughest position at the highest level possible. Rodgers has thrown for 32 touchdowns with just three interceptions. His quarterback rating of 118.4 ranks just behind the NFL single-season record of 122.5 that Rodgers himself set in 2011. His statistics would be even gaudier if Packers head coach Mike McCarthy hadn't made the prudent decision to pull Rodgers early in four blowout wins. And the most important thing: Green Bay (9-3) enters the home stretch sitting atop the NFC North with an excellent chance to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Midseason pick: Dallas running back DeMarco Murray

He's still enjoying a monster season but his torrid pace has slowed in the past month.

Quarter-season pick: San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers

Although playing at a high level, Rodgers, Watt and New England's Tom Brady are more MVP-worthy at this point.

All of the NFL passing records being set by Peyton Manning could someday belong to his Colts successor. Luck already has broken one of Manning's franchise marks in Indianapolis this season with 10 300-yard passing performances. Luck is on pace for 5,348 passing yards, which would be the third-highest total in NFL history. Particularly impressive is Luck's propensity for explosive plays. He has 62 completions of 20-plus yards.

Midseason pick: Denver quarterback Peyton Manning

Manning struggled in November losses to New England and St. Louis and the Broncos are now relying more on their C.J. Anderson-led running game, which has caused his passing numbers to dip.

Quarter-season pick: Murray

See above.

We know who Zach Mettenberger would cast his ballot for if he had a vote. Watt destroyed the Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback in two games this season, including last Sunday's 45-21 Texans rout when Mettenberger was forced to leave with a Watt-inflicted shoulder injury. The touchdowns that Watt is scoring as a goal-line tight end are just icing on the cake.

Midseason pick: Watt

Quarter-season pick: Watt

The Bills still haven't posted a winning record through November since 2006, but victories in their past two games make Buffalo (7-5) a legitimate postseason contender entering December for the first time in what seems like forever. Even if the Bills fall short of the playoffs, this run should help the standing of head coach Doug Marrone and general manager Doug Whaley when new owners Terry and Kim Pegula evaluate the franchise at season's end.

Midseason pick: Detroit

The Lions lost their NFC North lead by dropping November road matchups against Arizona and New England.

Quarter-season pick: Arizona

Injuries are decimating the Cardinals after their strong start.

Between 2010 and 2013, Forsett rushed for a combined total of 1,073 yards with three different teams (Seattle, Houston and Jacksonville). He already has 1,009 yards this season for Baltimore and his 5.6 yards-per-carry average is tops among all players with at least 100 attempts. Forsett also leads the league in runs of 20-plus yards with 12. Forsett's emergence is especially surprising considering his age (29) and the fact Baltimore entered training camp expecting Bernard Pierce and the now-departed Ray Rice to carry the rushing load.

Midseason pick: Buffalo quarterback Kyle Orton

He continues doing a solid, albeit unspectacular job directing the Bills' offense.

Quarter-season pick: New York Giants tight end Larry Donnell

With 51 catches for 516 yards and six touchdowns, Donnell is one of the few bright spots for the Giants (3-9). Donnell, though, must do a better job with ball security. He has lost four fumbles this season, which is the league's highest total among non-quarterbacks.

The 2010 NFC West was arguably the worst division in NFL history with a 7-9 champion (Seattle) and a combined point differential of negative-322. The NFC South is pushing those limits. Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina and Tampa Bay are a combined 7-26-1 against non-divisional opponents.

Midseason pick: NFC South

Quarter-season pick: New Orleans

In the span of 27 games, Griffin went from being one of the NFL's top young superstars to a backup with no future in Washington. A slew of factors figured into Griffin's demise, including his failure to develop as a pocket passer as well as the athleticism lost by a major knee injury suffered during the 2012 playoffs. The best-case scenario for Griffin is getting traded to a team this offseason where he can reinvent himself both in the locker room and on the field.

Midseason pick: St. Louis defensive end Robert Quinn

St. Louis (5-7) would still be in the playoff race if Quinn and the rest of the Rams defense opened the season playing as well as the unit did in November. All nine of Quinn's sacks have come in the past seven games.

Quarter-season pick: Quinn

Arians is hanging onto his lead over Cleveland's Mike Pettine by a thread. Even the Cardinals' best start in 40 seasons doesn't guarantee a playoff berth. Pettine will win this award if he can guide Cleveland (7-5) into the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

Midseason pick: Arians

Quarter-season pick: Arians

Yes, the defending Super Bowl champions have a talented defensive roster led by their "Legion of Boom" secondary. But there is plenty of great coaching from Quinn and his staff that has helped the unit adjust to injuries. Seattle's top-ranked defense has surrendered 300 yards of offense to just one of its past seven opponents (New York Giants). Quinn should be on the short list for any NFL head coaching vacancy.

Midseason pick: Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli

Marinelli has still done an excellent job, but flaws in the Cowboys' overachieving defense have gotten more exposed in recent weeks.

Quarter-season pick: Marinelli

The Halcyon days of Coughlin and Reese winning two Super Bowls in a five-season span are long gone. The Giants (3-9) are headed toward their worst finish since Coughlin's 6-10 debut with New York in 2004. Giants ownership, though, still faces a tough decision even though a change may be overdue. Coughlin is an excellent head coach who would become one of the top candidates for vacancies league-wide if he decided to continue working at age 68. Reese also deserves credit for assembling championship rosters but his poor drafts in recent years have greatly contributed to New York's woes.

Midseason: Tie between Atlanta head coach Mike Smith and the New York Jets head coach/general manager tandem of Rex Ryan and John Idzik

Smith could salvage his job if the Falcons win the NFC South. The Jets (2-10) remain in free fall under Ryan and Idzik.

Quarter-season pick: Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie

With his team at 1-11 and fielding one of the NFL's worst rosters, the Raiders will struggle to draw a proven head coach if Oakland owner Mark Davis insists that McKenzie remains as general manager.

Why not? If an offensive lineman is ever going to win this award, 2014 will be the year. There isn't a skill-position player who has performed at a Pro Bowl level like Martin at right guard for the Cowboys.

Midseason: Buffalo wide receiver Sammy Watkins

His production plummeted in November because of injury and increased double-coverage.

Quarter-season pick: Carolina wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin

He is one of the few bright spots on a bad team. Benjamin has the most impressive statistics of any rookie receiver with 57 catches for 824 yards and eight touchdowns.

Not only does he have a team-high 96 tackles along with two interceptions, Mosley has developed enough to assume a bigger pass-rushing role in Baltimore's blitz package. Mosley does have San Francisco linebacker Chris Borland breathing down his neck for this honor. Borland has a staggering 72 tackles in the past five games since replacing the injured Patrick Willis (toe).

Midseason pick: Mosley

Quarter-season pick: Chicago cornerback Kyle Fuller

Although he will be a cornerstone of Chicago's defense for years to come, Fuller hasn't intercepted a pass since Week 3.

It's no secret that New England's resurgence as the AFC's top team coincided with Gronkowski's return to full health after battling knee and forearm injuries the past two seasons. Gronkowski has 52 catches for 763 yards and six touchdowns in the Patriots' current 7-1 stretch. Gronkowski's run-blocking shouldn't be overlooked either.

Midseason pick: Houston Texans running back Arian Foster

Foster missed two games in November because of a groin injury but his 901 rushing yards rank third in the AFC behind Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell (1,046) and Baltimore's Justin Forsett (1,009).

Quarter-season pick: Baltimore wide receiver Steve Smith Sr.

After a torrid start to September, Smith's production has taken a steady dip culminated by his one-catch output in last Sunday's 34-33 loss to San Diego.

UPON FURTHER REVIEW: Boy, did I misread the Kansas City Chiefs. After a 24-20 home win over Seattle in Week 11, I thought the Chiefs were ready to topple Denver for the AFC West crown. Kansas City instead will need plenty of help just to make the playoffs following consecutive losses to previously winless Oakland and the Broncos. The Chiefs had the "trap game" excuse for falling to the Raiders on a short week.

There is no forgiveness for how badly Kansas City played from the get-go last Sunday against Denver at Arrowhead Stadium, especially with Chiefs players trying to pay homage to teammate Eric Berry as the standout safety battles what is feared to be lymphoma. Denver used what was Kansas City's formula for success -- running the football for 214 yards and limiting the Chiefs' to 41 yards on the ground -- for a 29-16 mauling. Remarkably, Kansas City still doesn't have a touchdown from its wide receiver corps. Kansas City (7-5) is now behind the Broncos (9-3) and San Diego (8-4) with a remaining schedule that included road trips to Arizona on Sunday and Pittsburgh in Week 16.

NUMBERS TO NOTE: Maybe the Dallas Cowboys would be better off as a wild-card than NFC East champion.  The Cowboys head to Chicago for Thursday night's game with the NFL's best road record at 5-0. Quarterback Tony Romo has proven particularly sharp away from home with 1,164 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and a league-best 122.0 passer rating in those contests.

THURSDAY NIGHT PICK: Dallas 27, Chicago 20

Cold weather shouldn't be much of a factor with the temperature forecast in the low 30s for kickoff. Both teams are coming off lopsided Thanksgiving-day losses. The Bears, though, are worse off with a passing game that can't make hay deep and porous defense.

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