National Football League

NFL MVP odds: Aaron Rodgers running away with top honor

Updated Jan. 4, 2022 1:29 p.m. ET

With one week left in the NFL's regular season, the MVP race appears to be just a formality.

After seeing his odds from a week ago improve, Aaron Rodgers looks set to be the league's first back-to-back MVP since Peyton Manning pulled off the feat in 2008 and 2009.

Assuming Rodgers takes home the award, he also will become just the second player in league history to win four or more honors, joining Manning, who won five.

Here are the MVP favorites heading into the final week of the season, according to FOX Bet's insights, with a breakdown of each candidate's recent play and what is on the horizon.

(Note: All odds, stats and league ranks current as of Tuesday morning.)

1. Aaron Rodgers: -400 (bet $10 to win $12.50 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: With a 37-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers sewed up the NFC's top seed, giving them a first-round bye and home-field advantage for the playoffs. Taking 84% of the offensive snaps, Rodgers didn't need to play the whole game for Green Bay to secure the victory. In his truncated appearance, Rodgers went 29-for-38 for 288 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a passer rating of 114.8.

What's next: Despite nothing to play for (aside from pride and improving Green Bay's record), Rodgers indicated that he would play in the Packers' Week 18 clash against the Detroit Lions. Whether that is truly the case remains to be seen. If he does suit up, though, he could improve his record against the Lions to 19-5-0 with a third consecutive season sweep.

What people are saying: "I thought it was nip-and-tuck down the stretch, but now it's over." ⁠— Shannon Sharpe on Monday's "Undisputed" on the MVP race

2. Tom Brady: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers survived a close scrape with a 28-24 win against the New York Jets, improving Brady's all-time regular-season record against the AFC East squad to 30-7. Lost amid Antonio Brown's bizarre exit Sunday was a game-winning drive from Brady, on which the veteran QB went 7-for-9 for 93 yards down the stretch to spare the Bucs from a disconcerting loss.

What's next: The Bucs end the regular season at home with a date against the Carolina Panthers, a team Brady has yet to lose to since he joined Tampa Bay. If he and the Buccaneers can topple Carolina, they could slide up to the No. 2 seed in the NFC with some help. The Los Angeles Rams presently hold that position, so the Buccaneers will be rooting for the San Francisco 49ers to do them a big favor as both games kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET.

What people are saying: "Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. just GOATed the Jets with a late rocket to ... Cyril Grayson?!?! What a throw. What a 93-yard drive with no timeouts. MVP! MVP! MVP!" ⁠— Skip Bayless of "Undisputed" on Twitter following Brady's game-winning drive Sunday