National Football League

After Week 1, NFL MVP odds are on the move, and one QB is your best bet

Updated Sep. 15, 2021 10:57 a.m. ET

NFL Week 1 is officially in the books, which means overreaction week has commenced!

As usual, the Week 1 slate resulted in big surprises and devastating disappointments, causing some bettors to fire away on new futures bets and/or pivot from wagers previously made.

One such market that saw a lot of action before the season started was the NFL MVP award. Going into the season, superstar quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers were the favorites to win the award at FOX Bet, at +550 and +1000, respectively. They were followed by Josh Allen (+1100), Tom Brady (+1400) and Dak Prescott (+1500) to round out the upper tier of candidates.

But as we all know, Week 1 has a way of changing things. That is precisely why the MVP odds are on the move, with Brady leading the way.

The 44-year-old legend picked up right where he left off last season, tossing four touchdown passes in the Thursday opener against the Dallas Cowboys. As ridiculous as this sounds, TB12 is playing some of the best football of his career. After Brady’s performance, his MVP odds shortened from +1400 to +900 at FOX Bet, making him the biggest mover going into Week 2.

"Brady is our biggest liability to win the award," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor said. "He was likely helped by the fact he played earlier in the week, too, so he was center of attention."

Per Blangsted-Barnor, Jameis Winston was the other biggest riser after Week 1, with his odds moving all the way down from +4000 to +2500 at FOX Bet. Understandably so, as Winston carved up the Green Bay Packers defense like turkey dinner for five touchdowns.

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Speaking of the Packers, Rodgers’ odds took a massive tumble. The Green Bay signal-caller threw for an abysmal 133 yards with two interceptions in a 38-3 defeat to the New Orleans Saints. His odds to win MVP have fallen from +1000 to +1600 at multiple sportsbooks, including PointsBet, as indicated by their Sports Analyst Michael Korn.

Two other QBs with dominant openers, Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford, also saw their odds shrink. Murray moved all the way down from +2500 to +900 at BetMGM, per data analyst John Ewing.

"Stafford moved up to No. 1 in terms of liability for us at PointsBet," said Korn at PointsBet.

FOX Sports' very own betting expert Jason McIntyre knows this is overreaction week, which is why he is doubling down on a quarterback who didn't have a stellar first game.

"I hyped Baker Mayfield for MVP all summer, and there's even more value on him after Week 1," McIntyre said. "Of Mayfield's next 10 opponents, nine missed the playoffs last year.

"He was excellent for three quarters vs. the best team in the NFL. He's going to have success all season, and the Browns will be in a position to win the division and perhaps get the No. 2 seed."

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Of course, there is a lot of the season left, with 16 games still to go, but often, the first week of the NFL gives us a good idea of which players are going to put themselves in a position to win the award. The race will stay fluid, and narratives also dictate who wins, so it’s a fun wager to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

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