National Football League

NFL MVP odds: Tom Brady stays at the top as Aaron Rodgers reenters the picture

Updated Nov. 30, 2021 3:34 p.m. ET

It might be risky to say, given the topsy-turvy nature of this NFL season so far, but the MVP picture could be starting to crystallize.

As we alluded to in last week's edition of MVP Watch, the three-way tie for third place is no more, thanks in large part to the Green Bay Packers' taking down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Here are the MVP favorites heading into Week 13, according to FOX Bet's insights, with a breakdown of each candidate's recent play and what is on the horizon.

(Note: All odds current as of Tuesday.)

1. Tom Brady: +275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Brady didn't exactly light it up in a 38-31 win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Indianapolis Colts, but he didn't really need to. That's because Leonard Fournette exploded for four touchdowns as the Bucs capitalized on several Indy miscues to rally for a victory. Brady did complete 73.5% of his passes for 226 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the win, with the lone TD toss going to Fournette.

What's next: An in-division trip to take on the 5-6 Atlanta Falcons awaits Brady's squad. Since joining the Buccaneers, Brady has yet to lose to Atlanta. In fact, his record against Atlanta is unblemished dating to his days as a member of the New England Patriots, with an 8-0 regular-season mark against the Falcons. He is 1-0 in playoff meetings, too, with a certain very memorable Super Bowl LI triumph.

What people are saying: "If you make me bet, hypothetically, [between] Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers in clutch moments, I'm going to have to go with Tom Brady, right?" ⁠— Marcellus Wiley of "Speak For Yourself" on the two MVP candidates

2. Josh Allen: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Allen and the Buffalo Bills feasted on the New Orleans Saints in a Thanksgiving matchup. The 25-year-old QB completed a career-high 82.1% of his 28 pass attempts for 260 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 115.2. It was a nice rebound from Week 11, when Allen scuffled and the Bills were blown out at home by the Indianapolis Colts by 26 points.

What's next: A marquee matchup against the scalding-hot New England Patriots on Monday night is on tap for Allen. In five meetings against Bill Belichick's team, Allen has a 2-3 record with seven touchdown passes, six interceptions and a pair of rushing TDs. Notably, Allen had his best game vs. the Pats in their most recent matchup. In Week 16 of last season, Allen went 27-for-36 for 320 yards, four TDs, no picks and a passer rating of 138.7. New England's defense is an entirely different animal this year, though.

What people are saying: "Josh Allen, you're an elite talent. No question. … When you want to call him an elite quarterback, come see me [at] playoff time." ⁠— Stephen A. Smith of ESPN on whether Allen is an "elite quarterback"

3. Aaron Rodgers: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Rodgers and the Packers bounced back from their second loss of the season in Week 11 with a statement 36-28 victory against the Los Angeles Rams. Rodgers completed 62.2% of his 45 pass attempts for 307 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 97.2. He also chipped in with a rushing TD, beating Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the pylon for Green Bay's first score of the game.

What's next: The Packers have a bye week coming up. With Rodgers battling an ailing toe, the timing of the bye is much appreciated. Despite the injury, Rodgers put it plainly to Erin Andrews after Sunday's win, saying "I'm not missing any time."

What people are saying: "I was very, very surprised with the ease at which, seemingly, Green Bay had at moving the football against this vaunted Rams defense." ⁠— Shannon Sharpe of "Undisputed" on the Packers' toppling the Rams

Honorable mentions: