National Football League

NFL MVP Watch: Sam Darnold has entered the MVP conversation

Updated Sep. 25, 2024 11:30 a.m. ET

After bouncing around four teams in seven NFL seasons, Sam Darnold is playing his best football for the Minnesota Vikings this season. The USC product has guided the Vikings to a surprising 3-0 record. He leads the league in passing touchdowns (8) and is second in passer rating (117.3).

Selected No. 3 overall by the New York Jets in the 2018 draft, Darnold was projected by NFL scouts as a prospect who would thrive in the pros because of his strong arm and movement skills. However, he's always had an issue with taking care of the football, with 58 career interceptions.

But Darnold has been better so far this season, with just two interceptions through three games. Darnold, 27, made a big jump in the MVP odds — moving from 100/1 to 30/1 — which is why he leads our MVP Watch this week. Darnold's success has even spawned a spoof page on social media.

The larger question is this: Can Darnold keep up this pace for the duration of the season? The reason I don't think Darnold will turn into a pumpkin in the second half of the year is simple — he has the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson.

The LSU product is always open, and Darnold is looking for him in critical moments of the game on third down and in the red zone. And because Jefferson is getting so much attention, he's creating opportunities and play designs for head coach Kevin O'Connell to dial up easy throws to other receivers.

This season, Darnold has completed 66.7% of his passes to Jefferson for 273 yards, with four 20-plus-yard completions for three touchdowns and no interceptions, posting a 149.3 passer rating.

Darnold's ascension leads this week's MVP Watch:

No. 1: Sam Darnold, Vikings
Current MVP Odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $300 total)

Darnold will stay motivated for another important reason — he's playing for a contract. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Vikings in free agency. And since Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round this year as the quarterback of the future (he suffered a season-ending knee injury), Darnold is playing for a new deal and potentially a new home in 2025 this season.

Darnold's 181-yard, four touchdown performance in last week's lopsided win over Houston helped him become the first quarterback in Vikings history to start a season 3-0 and throw multiple touchdowns in each game.

He faces the Green Bay Packers this week. Darnold threw for 341 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 128.4 passer rating in his only career start against the Packers his rookie season, a 44-38 loss while with the Jets.

No. 2: Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +225 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)

Allen continues to fill up the stat sheet, with 634 passing yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions for a league-leading 133.7 passer rating. The Wyoming product also has rushed for 85 yards and two scores.

Allen surpassed Patrick Mahomes and is now the favorite to win the MVP Award. According to FOX Sports Research, Allen recorded his 11th game with four passing touchdowns in a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, passing Jim Kelly for the most in Bills history.

Allen now has four career games with at least 250 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and 40 rushing yards, the most by any player in NFL history — breaking a tie with Cam Newton.

Gauging Josh Allen's MVP potential

No. 3: Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Current MVP Odds: +6000 (bet $10 to win $600 total)

With Christian McCaffrey injured, Barkley has taken over as the favorite (+350) to win the Offensive Player of the Year award, and he's the top non-quarterback in the race for the MVP award as well.

Barkley leads the league in rushing, with 351 yards and four touchdowns, and is second in the NFL in scrimmage yards with 404. He's emerged as the engine for Philadelphia on offense. It's still a head scratcher that the Giants did not do more to keep him on the roster.

Tom Brady’s 3 Stars of Week 3: Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels and Derrick Henry | DIGITAL EXCLUSIVE

No. 4: Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Current MVP Odds: +5000 (bet $10 to win $500 total)

Mayfield had a hiccup in his team's home loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, but he's still playing some good ball. Mayfield is fifth in passer rating (110.7) and tied for third in passing touchdowns (6) through three games.

However, Mayfield was sacked seven times against Denver and has been sacked 13 times this season, tied for third in the NFL. So, pass protection is a concern for Tampa Bay.

No. 5 Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Current MVP Odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $30 total)

Mahomes is off to the worst statistical start to a season in his NFL career. He's completed 70% of his passes for 659 yards, with five touchdowns and four interceptions for an 89.9 passer rating — not exactly MVP worthy. But the Chiefs are still 3-0 and Mahomes understands it's early.

"I feel like I haven't played very well," Mahomes said after his team's win over Atlanta in Week 3. "And that's not a stats thing. I just feel like I'm missing opportunities when I'm out there, and not throwing the ball in the exact spot I want it to be at."

Mahomes gets a chance to turn it around against a Los Angeles Chargers' defense that will be missing Derwin James due to suspension, and possibly Joey Bosa because of a hip injury.

Honorable mention: Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, T.J. Watt, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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