National Football League

NFL odds: 3 best futures bets to make after big trades and signings

Updated Mar. 24, 2022 5:09 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

After what has transpired in the NFL over the league's free agency period now is an excellent time to wager on a couple of NFL futures I like. 

After a wild few weeks, these are the teams — as they are currently constructed — I'd sprinkle a couple of bucks on. And, as always, the odds are via FOX Bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -275 to win the NFC South at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $13.64 total)

I do not mind laying juice on a wager like this. Tom Brady is back, and with him came the return of center Ryan Jensen, a resigning of Playoff Lenny, Carlton Davis signing a three-year deal, a trade for right guard Shaq Mason and the signing of Russell Gage. Oh, and Chris Godwin is returning from injury. This group is talented, but more than anything, this wager is about what the other teams in the division don't have. Elite quarterbacks.

The Carolina Panthers wanted Deshaun Watson but will have to settle for Sam Darnold again — unless the team drafts someone. The New Orleans Saints are rolling it back with Jameis Winston and a new head coach and offense. The Atlanta Falcons signed Marcus Mariota to be their quarterback, but who is he throwing to besides the tight end?

Tampa Bay has the best roster in the division and THE hall of fame quarterback who played outstanding last season. Barring something drastic, the Bucs are winning the division.  

Indianapolis Colts +120 to win the AFC South at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $22 total)

Maybe this is an overreaction to the dumping of Carson Wentz, but this roster is better than the Titans. The Colts need to add a left tackle, but otherwise they return playmakers all over the field and have vastly upgraded the quarterback position.

It’s fair to wonder if Matt Ryan is declining as his expected points added ranking dropped from ninth in 2019 to 15th in 2021. But, I think Ryan was a product of his surroundings. We saw last season how a change of scenery altered the fortune of Matthew Stafford. While Ryan doesn’t have the physical tools of Stafford, he’s got a much-improved roster and coaching staff.

The Titans had an offseason that flew under the radar as other teams made splash signings, but they improved their roster with Robert Woods and Austin Hooper. However, their offensive line is a huge concern for me. Taylor Lewan struggled with injuries last season, left guard Rodger Stafford was released, and they don’t have a reliable right tackle.

Tennessee also has a first-place schedule coming up that includes the Bengals, Packers and Bills, making their road to winning the division tougher. And, let's not forget the Titans went 6-1 in regular-season games decided by three points or fewer. That statistic usually tends to even out the following season.

Ultimately it comes down to the Colts having a better set of players and a quarterback who can help them win the division. Please give me the Colts to win the AFC South.

Buffalo Bills +333 to win AFC at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $43.30 total)

It’s hard to find someone who continually picks the Chiefs to win the AFC more than me, but after the trade of Tyreek Hill, it’s irresponsible to continue to wager on them. Kansas City can add playmakers to the roster between now and the start of the season via the second wave of free agency and the draft, but will that be enough to win the AFC? Probably not.

The Bills were the best team on paper entering the AFC playoffs and were 13 seconds away from beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead stadium. I feel comfortable saying the Bills would have gone on to beat the Bengals in Buffalo, and make the Super Bowl.

Buffalo returns a loaded squad, and they will get Tre'Davious White back from injury and added Von Miller. Miller is there for the last month of the season and the playoffs, that’s it. And as we have seen time and time again, he always performs in those moments.

I am slightly concerned with the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the New York Giants. Daboll was able to unlock Josh Allen and turn him into one of the best quarterbacks in football, which was no small task. Can Ken Dorsey take over and do the same? We shall see. But I think this team is too good to ignore as the favorites to win the AFC.  

For more, from gambling-friendly schedules featuring live, updating odds to expert analysis and the day's most-bet games, check out the all-new "NFL Odds" section on the FOX Sports App and FOXSports.com!

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!

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