National Football League

NFL odds: 3 NFL MVP futures bets to make now

Updated Apr. 5, 2022 8:18 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Let’s call the NFL MVP award what it is: It’s an award given to the quarterback of the top seed in either conference and not based on the QB with the most value.

Now here's a fun MVP fact you might not have known: After Aaron Rodgers won the award in 2014 with the Seattle Seahawks as the 1-seed, every MVP since has been the quarterback of the best team in a conference. Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and then Aaron Rodgers the last two seasons. Interesting, right?

So when I preview my favorites for this award, I’m really handicapping which team I believe wins the conference. Let's jump into my favorite early bets for NFL MVP, with all odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Tom Brady: +850 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $95 total)

This wager is the easiest and safest option on the board. Tom Brady briefly retired before returning for another season in Tampa Bay. With the help of Brady, Tampa re-signed some of its top free agents and added a few more strong pieces. The team also traded for Shaq Mason and will surely draft a guard in the first round.

Tampa Bay is loaded and the Bucs' motivation next year will come from how poorly they performed at home at the end of last season. The division is flawed, and I'd be surprised if Tampa doesn’t run the table in the NFC South. The Bucs' biggest competition for the 1-seed is the Packers, and Green Bay doesn't have any receivers. They also have to compete with the Rams who have retooled after their Super Bowl but play in a tough division. Also, the Rams have zero depth which could cost them if they get injured at all.

Now, having the top seed doesn’t guarantee an MVP season from Brady, but we have to believe he will play well. Last season, at age 44, Tom Brady threw for 5,316 yards with 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He completed 67.5% of his passes which is three percentage points higher than his career average. Brady shows no signs of slowing down his production, so I’d expect a similar season from him in 2022.

Josh Allen: +700 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $80 total)

The Bills are my current favorites to earn the top seed in the AFC conference. They added Von Miller and O.J. Howard via free agency to an already outstanding roster. Tre’Davious White returns from injury which should help a pass defense that struggled without him. But more than anything, this is me officially saying Josh Allen has my vote of confidence and that the Chiefs do not. Besides, Buffalo has the easier division and is more talented at the moment than Kansas City.

Josh Allen was the MVP runner-up in 2020 and took a small step back last season. He completed fewer passes, threw for fewer yards and had more interceptions and fewer yards per attempt. I believe the sweet spot for his career is somewhere between his 2020 and 2021 seasons.

If Allen can stay in the 66-67% completion range, rack up about 4,500 yards, pass somewhere in the high 30s for touchdowns and rush for 600-700 yards, he'll be golden. Getting to nearly 50 touchdowns and 5,000 or more total yards would clearly be enough for Josh to win the MVP if the Bills are the 1-seed.

Patrick Mahomes: +600 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $70 total)

Despite the Chiefs trading Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win this award. I do think Mahomes will be playing revenge football next season after not playing up to his standards last season. Mahomes also played miserably in the second half of the Chiefs' loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship game, so you know he's going to come out on fire next year.

But, even in a "down" season, he completed 66% of his passes for 4,839 yards with 37 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Thirty other teams would love to trade places with Mahomes and the Chiefs and have that kind of down season.

The Chiefs will add a receiver in the draft, and their offense will be fine. The issue is their schedule which is currently the toughest in the NFL. I do not think Kansas City will be the 1-seed this year, but Mahomes will still put up big numbers.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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