National Football League

NFL odds: A Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick Super Bowl could be looming

Updated Nov. 29, 2021 8:08 p.m. ET

When the New England Patriots decided to move on from Tom Brady, never in their most far-fetched imagination did they think the GOAT would win another Super Bowl without them, at least not in the first season after they parted ways. With fate on his side, Brady won with the Bucs right away.

Fast forward to this season, and New England and Brady are achieving success on their new, separate paths. According to the odds, those roads might intersect in February.

A Patriots-Buccaneers Super Bowl could be looming as Brady battles his old team with his new.

In the NFC, Brady's Buccaneers are leading their division and separating themselves from the pack. After defeating the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, the reigning world champs' Super Bowl odds sit at +500 at FOX Bet.

In the AFC, the Patriots are on a roll. They annihilated the Tennessee Titans to increase their winning streak to six. Their odds to win the Lombardi Trophy are listed at +1000.

With everything coming up aces for both teams, are they destined to duke it out at SoFi Field in Los Angeles? How much fun would that be?

Been there, done that Belichick and his Pats have the kind of defense that championship teams are made of. They rank fourth in the NFL in overall D, giving up an average of 316.7 yards per game. In their rout of the Titans, the Patriots forced three fumbles and a Ryan Tannehill interception. As 7.5-point favorites, the Patriots easily covered the spread in their 36-13 victory and put to rest any doubts that choosing Mac Jones to start over Cam Newton was the better bet.

Jones, the rookie quarterback out of Alabama, had an impressive preseason that paved the way for him to beat out veteran quarterback Newton for the starting position. His play has carried over into the regular season and Mac's odds to take home NFL Rookie of the Year honors have shortened with every win.

Just two weeks ago, Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals was the favorite to win the league's most coveted first-year award. Now, Jones — with his 2,850 passing yards and 16 touchdowns — is favored to win ROY, listed at -213 at FOX Bet.

A tough defense and an offense that's maintaining a late-season stride? That's a recipe to roll right into Los Angeles for Super Bowl LVI.

But Tampa Bay and Brady might have an easier path than his former team. Of the six remaining games on Tampa Bay's schedule, the Buffalo Bills are the only opponent with a plus-.500 record. The 8-3 Bucs are huge favorites to clinch their division with their odds to win the NFC South sitting at -5000.

Even if Tom and Tampa were facing more challenging teams down the stretch, it's likely the champs would still manage ways to maintain a winning trajectory. And while there are legions of Pats fans torn over whether or not they should wish success for the player who brought their team six Super Bowl titles, Brady's numbers this season speak for themselves.

The three-time MVP leads the league with 30 TDs on the season with 3,403 passing yards. This is why, even at age 44, he's the favorite to win NFL MVP — +275 at FOX Bet.

While Brady and the offense are the main attraction, don't forget about Tampa Bay's defense. The Bucs have the eighth-best defense in the NFL, allowing opponents an average of 328.5 yards per game. And their stout run defense has allowed just 891 rushing yards on the season, best in the league.

All of this could mean that the road to the Big Game still leads back to Brady and Belichick.

However, is this more movie plot than reality? Is the "aging-Brady out to prove the Pats made a mistake" trope a tired one? Should we really be preparing for a possible Pats-Bucs Super Bowl matchup?

The odds definitely indicate it's more likely than some might think.

FOX Bet gives the Bucs the best chance of winning the Super Bowl. They also have the Patriots with the third-best odds in the AFC to win it all.

FOX Bet Trading Operations Manager Ben Conroy said that he is prepared for the matchup.

"On our current prices, the Patriots-Bucs Super Bowl is listed at +1825 to happen in February," the oddsmaker said.

A +1825 would put the implied odds of that matchup occurring at 5.2%.

If Brady did face the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the Bucs would be favored in the big game.

"The Bucs would be solid favorites, as we would set the line at -5," Conroy said.

Conroy leaned into how the two teams meeting in the regular season might help predict how their possible Super Bowl matchup plays out. The Bucs beat the Patriots 19-17 on Oct. 3.

"Whoever makes it out of the NFC will be a very strong team, but if New England makes it out of the AFC, you'd imagine they’re a better team than they were when these teams played each other during the regular season," the oddsmaker said.

"But remember, the Bucs were -7 when the teams played earlier this season, and the Pats still managed to cover."

After the Patriots lost to the Bucs to fall to 1-3, a potential Super Bowl clash between the two teams seemed unlikely. Eight weeks later, a Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick battle for supremacy in Super Bowl LVI seems very possible.

You couldn't write a better script to end the season. That, and an 18-1 return on your bet, is why this is the perfect time to make a fun wager on a potential Patriots-Bucs Super Bowl matchup.

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