National Football League

NFL odds: Aaron Rodgers' dominance at Lambeau and 49ers-Packers trends

Published Jan. 19, 2022 7:35 p.m. ET

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Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is such a "Bad Man" that he juggles pitching insurance, hosting a prime-time game show and moonlighting as a John Wick impersonator — all while leading the Packers to a 12-5 record against the spread (ATS) and a 13-4 straight up (SU) record on the season.

But from a gambling perspective, how much value does the MVP front-runner really bring to bettors when it comes to the postseason, and will that value give him a toe-up on San Francisco in the divisional round?

Let's dive into some betting trends that stick out ahead of Saturday's NFC divisional matchup.

After savoring a bye-week of rest, Green Bay welcomes the Niners to a chilly Lambeau Field, where forecasts predict snow and temperatures dipping as low as zero degrees. 

While wintry wonderlands might intimidate less stealthy QBs, when it comes to a good old-fashioned cold front, Rodgers has got you covered. According to FOX Sports research, in regular and postseasons combined, he's 21-9-1 ATS and 24-7 SU as a starter in sub-30 degree weather. 

49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, has never played in an NFL game where temps have been below 30 degrees. So if you're looking for a hot trend to back this weekend, Rodgers ATS — when it's cold — is one to watch.

Bettors might also need to keep their eyes peeled for a QB not named Jimmy G. to get the start this weekend. Per FOX Sports betting analyst Sam Panayotovich, Garoppolo is nowhere near 100% and bookmakers are bracing for the likelihood that he might not play on Saturday.

Enter rookie QB Trey Lance.

Remember when we told you that fading rookie QBs in the playoffs was a good bet? Since 2002, QBs making their first career playoff start are 14-31 ATS and 11-34 SU. So if Lance does suit up for San Francisco, it's not too late to heed our cautious warning on this trend.

But back to Lambeau, where it'll be cooler than a polar bear's toenails Saturday afternoon. 

Rodgers, the 2011 Super Bowl MVP, is 4-3-1 ATS and 5-3 SU at home in the playoffs. And when playing at home in divisional matchups specifically, Rodgers is 5-3 ATS and 5-3 SU. Wagering that profitable trend could have you celebrating fatter pockets this weekend.

An even more absurd stat is the star signal caller's regular-season ATS record at home throughout his entire illustrious career. Rodgers is 65-36-1 ATS and 83-18-1 SU at home. It's also worth noting that the Packers were one of the best teams at covering the spread in the regular season and that usually works in a team's favor in the playoffs.

The last couple trends gamblers must keep on their radars this weekend are Rodgers' record after a bye week and the Packers' over/under (O/U) record in playoffs.

While A-Rod's playoff ATS record following a bye does break even at 2-2, his SU mark in that category is 3-1. And when it comes to Green Bay and the O/U, since 1986, the Packers have hit the over in 11 of 19 home playoff contests. In other words, all the Packers do is win and win big.

So which of these hot trends are you riding into the freezing cold divisional matchup between Green Bay and San Francisco? Head over to FOX Bet to get into the action now!

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!
 

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