National Football League

NFL odds: Rodgers, Wilson moves make Packers, Chiefs best Super Bowl bets

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 11:52 a.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The NFL always delivers, even in the offseason. 

Tuesday, Aaron Rodgers announced he’s back with the Green Bay Packers, something I’ve said would happen the last two offseasons. Immediately after the Rodgers news broke, it was announced the Denver Broncos traded for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Bang! What a day. 

Do any of these moves change the way the odds market views the NFL season? And better yet, does it change how I feel? Let’s find out.

The Packers' odds to win the Super Bowl moved from +1400 to +1000 after it was announced Rodgers is back for another year. The line movement is not unexpected, but I’m not sure if it changes much about how I feel regarding the Packers. 

With Wilson moving out of the conference, Rodgers and the Packers are clearly the best quarterback and team in the NFC, and they should make the Super Bowl. Their biggest quarterback hurdle is Matthew Stafford, but the Rams' roster will undergo massive changes this offseason with free agency and injuries. 

Who else in the NFC poses a risk? Kyler Murray? Trey Lance? Dak Prescott? Y’all know I’m always high on the Cowboys, but that doesn’t mean I trust them. 

Speaking of trust, let's be honest. The Packers have underachieved a bit during their past three seasons: 39 regular-season wins and no Super Bowl appearances. That’s the most wins over the three-year stretch without making the big game. So while the Packers are the most talented team and have easily the best quarterback in the NFC, nothing is guaranteed with them. But nonetheless, I’m rolling with the Packers out of the NFC.

PICK: Packers +1000 to win Super Bowl LVII (bet $10 to win $110 total)

In the AFC, the Chiefs continue to be the favorite to win the Super Bowl because they are a proven winner. They have hosted four straight AFC championship games, and it took the worst half of Patrick Mahomes' career, in the worst season of his career, for Kansas City not to reach its third straight Super Bowl. I do not know why the Chiefs would slow down now, even with Russell Wilson added to the division. 

The Broncos' Super Bowl odds moved from +2200 to +1200 after the Wilson trade. No doubt the Broncos have a talented roster, but this is a sucker bet. The Broncos have a new head coach who is unproven and has never called plays before. Meanwhile, Denver's division is the best in the NFL; they’d be lucky to have a home playoff game.

A winner in the Wilson trade might be the Buffalo Bills. If the Chiefs add a loss to the Broncos on the schedule, something that hasn’t happened since 2015, that could be the difference in home-field advantage. Instead of the AFC going through Kansas City, it will be Buffalo. That is a huge advantage for the Bills. The Chiefs and Mahomes have yet to play in a road playoff game. But I still like the Chiefs as Super Bowl champs until I see the Bills beat them in the playoffs.

PICK: Chiefs +700 to win Super Bowl LVII (bet $10 to win $80 total)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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