NFL odds: Best bets for Seahawks-49ers, Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Bucs
It’s time to bet on the NFL Playoffs. Separating the contenders from the pretenders in the league’s second season is always a fascinating task.
Our best bets (41-37-1) are in the green, and I’m rolling with four plays over the weekend. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
No. 7 Seattle Seahawks (9-8) at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (13-4), 4:35 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App
Peep the weather forecast.
It’ll be a wet and windy Saturday in San Francisco, with the highest gusts touching 20 miles per hour around kickoff. That’s obviously far from ideal for explosive pass plays, and I expect Brock Purdy and Geno Smith to work off mostly conservative game plans in the elements.
It’s no secret Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll loves to run the football, and he’ll likely utilize Kenneth Walker III quite a bit. If Seattle can churn butter with success on the ground, it’ll melt that precious clock and keep the versatile Niners offense on the sidelines.
San Francisco’s defense is the star of the show, and that group is getting healthy at the perfect time. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw were full participants at practice Thursday, which is great news for a unit that ranked No. 1 in DVOA at Football Outsiders.
This one would be low and slow.
PICK: Under 42 points at FOX Bet
PICK: 1H Under 20.5 at FOX Bet
No. 6 New York Giants (9-7-1) at No. 3 Minnesota Vikings (13-4), 4:40 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App
The Giants made us a lot of bread this year.
New York (13-4 ATS) was the best NFL team against the spread, and the old adage says that good teams win and great teams cover. Big Blue also flew way over their season win total, which was O/U 6.5 at FOX Bet.
But sometimes you gotta know when to flip.
Minnesota finished with a 13-4 record, and most bettors still think they’re phonies. Are the Vikings good enough to win a Super Bowl? Probably not. But can they dispatch Daniel Jones and an average Giants offense in the raucous Death Star? Absolutely.
Remember, these two teams met in the regular season in late December, and the Vikings closed as a 4.5-point home favorite. So you can now buy even lower on a team that nobody respects to essentially hold serve at home.
Count me in.
PICK: Vikings (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
No. 5 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9), 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
I’m drinking the Tom Brady Kool-Aid.
Las Vegas bookmakers opened Dallas as a 3-point road favorite, and most shops are already down to -2.5. Professional money entered the market right away on the Bucs, and I expect that to continue through the weekend.
There’s a very strong possibility that Dallas closes -1 or -1.5 at kickoff Monday, which of course, will lessen the price on Tampa’s moneyline.
Brady has never lost to Dallas (7-0 all-time), and fading Mike McCarthy is one of my favorite pastimes. Brady’s ability to rise above playoff pressure cannot be underestimated, and I expect the Bucs to play fast and throw the ball 45 times. Quick, precision throws are crucial against the Cowboy pass rush.
Don’t let me down, Tom.
PICK: Buccaneers (ML +115 at FOX Bet) to win straight up
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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