National Football League

NFL odds: Best early bets, strategies for Bears, Chargers, Dolphins

Updated Jun. 6, 2023 11:47 a.m. ET

Betting on NFL odds is practically a 24/7/365 business. The NFL is the vanguard of betting on the U.S. sports landscape, even during the offseason, when the NFL regularly overshadows in-season leagues.

So with the 2023-24 season still three months out, what markets are worth having your money tied up in at the moment? And as important, what should you wait on?

Mark Drumheller, betting analyst for Yahoo! Sports, and Will Hill, contributor to the Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSIN), help the rest of us figure out what NFL betting markets are worth a look as summer dawns.

Let's dive into it.

Stretching Your Dollar

First off, unless you’re actually betting on NFL Week 1 odds — more on that later — the money you wager now will be tied up for quite some time. Betting on Super Bowl, conference or division futures, regular-season win totals or on other season-long prop markets requires the ability to have that money tied up.

"Whenever you are wagering on long-term futures, it always comes down to individual liquidity. How much of your bankroll are you willing to tie up before it bears fruit? And what would be the expected return if the money wasn't tied up?" Drumheller said. "For me personally, I may hit a select few win totals, but mostly, I will try to find value in bets with longer odds."

A bettor can often find better rates of return — making it possible to wager less and extend the bankroll — by doing some comparison shopping between markets, then making a more educated decision about what to wager on.

"Andy Molitor and Drew Dinsick recently did a really informative podcast on the pros and cons and brought up how betting into longer odds allows you to minimize your investment," Drumheller said, alluding to two well-known peers in the sports betting space.

"For instance, if you like Miami to exceed its win total of 9.5 at even money (+100), there are a couple other ways to approach it. You can bet the Dolphins to win the AFC East at three times the return (+300) or the alternate win total of Over 11.5 at the same price (+300), allowing you to risk only one-third of a unit to yield the same profit."

Additionally, one could wager on proposition bets — such as the MVP market — that are correlated to a successful Miami season.

"Miami cashing those bets is highly correlated to Tua Tagovailoa’s health," Drumheller said of the Dolphins QB, who last season was at times brilliant but had concussion issues. "So I'd rather bet Tua to win MVP at 20/1 or Mike McDaniel to win Coach of the Year at 22/1. Those bets allow me to invest only 5% or 4.5% of one unit to win back the same amount as the original win total bet.

"You can apply the same logic to the Chargers with Justin Herbert/Brandon Staley or any other team that you feel is underrated in the market. Long-shot awards and alternative win totals are the bets to make."

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Getting Over on the Under

Hill is more a fan of betting standard season win totals. That said, he’s only looking for opportunities in one direction.

"I always look to play season win totals Under," Hill said. "Fans are generally optimistic about their teams and bet accordingly. Very few fans think, ‘My team is going to suck this year, I’m going to bet against them.’ Fans want to root for their teams, so they often irrationally bet the Over, naturally creating value on the Under."

But there’s more to Hill’s strategy than just going against the grain of fans/recreational bettors. There’s the reality of an 18-week, 17-game regular season.

"When you bet the Under on a season win total, injuries that derail a team — which is inevitable in the NFL — help your bet," Hill said. "When looking at the Over/Under, it’s natural to look at a team and think of how it will perform at full strength. But if the quarterback misses half the season, then how does your Over bet look? Injuries happen, and that is good for Under bets."

And there are the occasional anomalies that can monkey wrench an Over bet or in turn help out an Under wager.

"Ties happen. Not frequently, but they happen, and they are not factored into the math of season win totals when the lines are set," Hill said.

What Are We Wagering On?

As Hill noted, he’s more enthused by odds on NFL season win totals. At this point, he’s leaning into two teams:

– Bears Under 7.5 wins: "The Bears won three games last year and had the first pick in the draft. Expecting them to increase by five wins is asking a lot. The Bears also have eight home games and nine road games, in addition to a quarterback in Justin Fields who has taken 91 sacks in two seasons and carried the ball 391 times.

"He gets hit a lot. Can he stay healthy taking that kind of punishment? Chicago is also a team that still has plenty of holes on defense and the offensive line. The Bears are a trendy sleeper pick, but it’s not one I endorse. I like the Under."

– Rams Under 6.5 wins: "The Rams went all in to win a Super Bowl, and they got the job done [in 2021-22], trading every first-round pick from 2017 until now. Trading all of those picks creates a top-heavy and older roster that is prone to injury.

"The stars-and-scrubs model they’ve followed is a finicky one, and their schedule is no picnic either. They have nine road games and only eight at home on a home field that often sees a majority of spectators rooting for the visitor."

Further, Hill pointed out that L.A.’s early schedule is no picnic. They play at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, at Bengals, at Colts and vs. Eagles in the first five games.

"That’s a brutal start for a team in transition that may start slow and realize their best path forward is to angle themselves for a high pick in next year’s draft. Especially with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye on the radar."

That would be Heisman-winning USC QB Williams and North Carolina QB Maye. If the Bears are ultimately interested in either player, that would presumably mean moving on from Fields.

Meanwhile, true to what he professes, Drumheller is on one season award prop and one alternate win total:

– Matt LaFleur Coach of the Year (+1600): "Awards markets are narrative driven, and all eyes will be on [Jets QB] Aaron Rodgers in a massive media market. That story will be front and center. And whether he likes it or not, Matt LaFleur is a major character in that story," Drumheller said.

"Eyeballs will be on Green Bay as well, and if LaFleur can lead Green Bay back to the top of a very wide-open NFC North with Jordan Love, he has a real shot at the award. Green Bay to win the division is +500, but I think there is more value here at 16/1 here with LaFleur. It's best to bet this now, since the odds will likely shorten if Jordan Love has a strong training camp/preseason."

– Bears alternate win total Over 9.5 (+350): "Attacking divisions without a lead dog makes a ton of sense this time of year, and the NFC North fits the mold," Drumheller said. "I wouldn't be shocked if any of the four NFC North teams won the division, so you may prefer to play the Bears in that market at +400.

"Regardless, the volatility within the division and in the entire NFC creates value on a team like the Bears. I love how Chicago got Justin Fields a real weapon in DJ Moore and addressed the offensive line in both the draft and free agency."

Bolstering his Bears argument, Drumheller pointed to an interesting nugget prior to last season from NFL analysis site ClevAnalytics.

"Over the past six years, the team that spent the most money in free agency improved its win total by at least three games and by an average of five wins. Last year's team was Jacksonville, which ended up being a big winner for bettors."

Indeed, the Jaguars went 3-14 in 2021-22, then last season went 9-8. That was a six-game improvement. And they even posted a wild-card win over the Chargers before bowing out to the Chiefs.

"The Bears are coming off a 3-14 season, so this is a big leap to improve by seven games," Drumheller said. "But with a last-place schedule in a weak conference, it was a bet for me."

NFL Week 1: To Play or Not?

Betting on NFL Week 1 odds this far out is a bit of a different animal. Drumheller and Hill are fairly in sync on this: Give the lines a good once-over and see if there’s a legitimate advantage. Short of that, too much can happen between now and early September, making it less than ideal to have your money tied up that long.

"I would advise against it, unless you feel like you have a very significant edge," Drumheller said. "Similar to betting week to week in the NFL, when you [bet] early in the week, you inherit the risk of information changing with injury reports, etc. There is a lot of information that can change from now until kickoff, so that's a much more significant risk than betting Sunday to Sunday during the season."

Drumheller then provided a perfect example that he lived. The Colts-Chargers 2019-20 season opener was the last time he took an early position on a Week 1 game.

"I played the Colts on the road against the Chargers. I felt like Indianapolis was undervalued on the road, especially considering the Chargers didn't have a strong home-field advantage," Drumheller said. "A guy named Andrew Luck abruptly retired right before the start of the season, and not only did I have awful closing line value, but the Jacoby Brissett-led Colts lost 30-24 in overtime, despite rushing for 203 yards. That was it for me."

Hill notes that oddsmakers have a tough job putting up NFL Week 1 numbers this early, which might give the bettor an edge.

"When the lines open, limits are low. And with all the sports going on, it’s hard for the books to post perfect numbers, especially with this new trend of books posting lines for all games," Hill said, alluding to some sportsbooks already posting practically every regular-season game. So it’s worth it to look at the lines and make bets if you don’t mind tying up your money for months at a time.

"But understandably, a large segment of people don't want to do that. There is no right or wrong answer."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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