National Football League

NFL odds: Bet on Russell Wilson and the Broncos to win the Super Bowl

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 11:53 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

In 2020, Tom Brady left the New England Patriots. He went to Tampa Bay and won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. In 2021, Matt Stafford was traded to the Rams after 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions. He, too, ended up leading Los Angeles to a Lombardi.

Now we are in 2022, and another star quarterback has changed teams, as Russell Wilson was traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos.

Will the trend of star NFL quarterbacks moving to new teams continue producing Super Bowl winners?

Let’s start here: Wilson has been an elite QB since entering the league. He turns 34 in November, making him younger than Brady and Stafford were when they were traded. He moves from a putrid offensive line in Seattle which was so bad that he was under pressure on 37% of his drop backs. Now Russ goes to the Broncos, whose offensive line only allowed 165 pressures last season — ranked 15th in the NFL.

Wilson will fit right into a Broncos offense full of playmakers. In the backfield, he will have Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, who each racked up over 900 yards on the ground. On the outside, there's the underrated Tim Patrick — who led the team in 20-plus yard receptions — in addition to the dynamic pass catchers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.

Lastly, the Broncos drafted UCLA tight end Greg Dulcich to join Albert Okwuegbunam, a player who had 33 receptions as a rookie. With the addition of Dulchich, Denver can give opponents two TE looks.

All in all, this plethora of riches bodes well for Wilson to immediately make an impact.

On the flip side, Denver's defense is a bit of a different story. The team traded away Von Miller and only had star edge rusher Bradley Chubb for seven games last season. Chubb should return healthy, the Broncos added Randy Gregory in free agency and have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, so the arrow is pointing up on that side of the ball.

If you take everything into account, including the intangible value that Wilson brings, the pieces are in place for the Broncos to make a run, especially when you consider what happened to Kansas City — the favorites in the AFC West. The Chiefs lost their best skill position player in Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, and if anything happens to soon-to-be 33-year-old Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' offense will have huge question marks despite the fact that their QB Mahomes is the best in the league.

Speaking of question marks, there is a small one surrounding first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett. But, in Hackett's defense, the coach looks like he is all in on letting Russ cook. Already a plus in my book.

And of course, the Broncos play in the rugged AFC where — according to FOX Bet's Super Bowl futures — seven of the Top 12 Super Bowl contenders loom. That includes Buffalo, the favorite to win it all (+650 at FOX Bet).

As for Wilson himself, let's just say he isn't coming to Denver to sail off into the sunset. He's here to win now, which bodes well for the team's upcoming season. Careerwise, Wilson played 10 seasons in Seattle and last year was the only year he finished with a record under .500. The only two games he missed his entire career were also last season.

How soon we forget that in 2020, Wilson threw 40 touchdown passes and the Seahawks were 12-4. Now, he’ll be backed by a better defense and will drop back behind an offensive line that should protect better than the 47 plus times he was sacked during three of the last four seasons.

Let’s remember what happened the last time the Broncos landed a franchise QB. Peyton Manning took them to a Super Bowl appearance in his second year and rode an awesome defense to a Super Bowl win in year four.

Russell Wilson’s going to get one in Denver, and at +1500, betting them to win it all this year presents some value.

PICK: Broncos (+1500 at FOX Bet) to win the Super Bowl (bet $10 to win $160)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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