National Football League

NFL odds: Bet on the Bengals to cover against the Packers, and more

Updated Oct. 9, 2021 1:18 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

I'm coming off a perfect week in this space, so the key is to avoid the regression train. What got me the 5-0 (plus a teaser!) won't get me where I'm going. I can't just do what I did last week.

Finding value in teams coming off a loss was vital, and a couple of those dot the picks (Vikings, Saints) below.

Now that we have four weeks of data in the books, we can precisely tell who is ascending and who not to bet on, in a sense.

One great game that I avoided here was Arizona hosting San Francisco. My urge was to take Arizona. The Cardinals are a well-oiled machine with an offense approaching Chiefs-like levels that can make up for defensive woes. But the adjustment for this game was nearly 4-points from the look-ahead line, which is a massive leap. Sure, the 49ers are trotting out a rookie QB and have a banged-up defense, but they still have Kyle Shanahan, one of the most creative coaches in the game.

When Arizona covers: Darn it, I should have followed my instinct! When the 49ers lose by a field goal: See, the numbers were right!

Welcome to gambling in the NFL.

Now let's take a look at my best bets for the weekend, with odds via FOX Bet.

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY (-2.5 at FOX Bet)

How disrespectful is it to not give Patrick Mahomes a full 3-points at home? In the AFC championship 10 months ago, a hobbled Mahomes – who can forget the injury against Cleveland? – was only a 3-point favorite against Buffalo, and the Chiefs rolled to a 38-24 win and cover. The spread was never in doubt in the second half.

Yes, the Kansas City defense is much worse, and by all appearances, the Buffalo defense is considerably better. But before you rush to bet the Bills, who have registered two shutouts and lead the league in every meaningful defensive category, consider the QBs they faced: Washed Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke in his first career road game, and rookie Davis Mills in his first road start. Those are bottom-10 NFL QBs, while Mahomes is the NFL's best.

Yes, the Chiefs' defense hasn't been able to stop a nose bleed this year, but since when has defense mattered? The defense didn't cost them in losses to Baltimore and Los Angeles – uncharacteristic turnovers did.

Mahomes is 8-1-1 when not favored by more than three points.

PICK: Kansas City (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

DETROIT at MINNESOTA (-9.5 at FOX Bet)

The Vikings are 1-3 but have played the most challenging schedule in the NFL, losing to three teams currently ranked in the Top 10 according to the Football Outsiders DVOA metric (measures every single play): Arizona (3), Cleveland (4) and Cincinnati (10). And all three defeats came by less than one score.

The Lions' injuries are mounting defensively, and top-rated edge rusher Romeo Okwara has now been lost for the season. They may be without three starters on the offensive line, meaning the Vikings will pressure Jared Goff, who has not reacted well to heat throughout his career. The Vikings rank seventh in pressure rate this season, and Minnesota LB Anthony Barr is expected to make his season debut.

On top of that, Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer is 32-15 ATS when coming off a loss. The line movement on this is less than ideal. It was available at 7.5 and 8 earlier this week, and it's not great to be getting a number that was already bet into.

If you don't feel comfortable at this mark, add the Vikings to a teaser before the most key number in football, three.

PICK: Minnesota (-9.5 at FOX Bet) to win by 10 or more points

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GREEN BAY at CINCINNATI (+3 at FOX Bet)

Going against Aaron Rodgers long-term is going to be a money-loser. But a few things line up for the Bengals here. For starters, Green Bay's best defensive player, Jaire Alexander, is out. The Pack defense is so banged up that they signed a linebacker Dallas released – Jaylon Smith – this week.

Green Bay has faced Goff, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Roethlisberger. None of those QBs are ranked in the Top 25 - ! - according to grades from Pro Football Focus.

In comes Joe Burrow, who has been fantastic this season and is ranked sixth. He ranks third in yards per attempt, and thanks to the emergence of rookie Ja'Marr Chase, the Bengals should slice and dice this bad Packers defense.

Cincinnati may be without leading rusher Joe Mixon, so that is something to watch.

This line was 3.5 earlier this week, but those are long gone. If you can find the hook, terrific, as this game feels that's 30-all with 90 seconds left, and Aaron Rodgers goes the length of the field to win it.

PICK: Cincinnati (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points; or win outright

NEW ORLEANS (-2 at FOX Bet) at WASHINGTON

The Saints are an enigma. How do you shut down Rodgers and win handily at a neutral site, then go home a few weeks later and get beaten by Daniel Jones and the Giants?

Yet still, everyone is betting the Saints to win this one. I have faded them twice off a win this year, and now it's time to back them off a loss. Sean Payton is 16-6 ATS in the last five years off a loss.

New Orleans doesn't do much right offensively, but this is primarily a play against the Washington offense, which has been turnover prone, and the defense can't stop anyone.

The Football Team was sixth in sacks last year and ninth in pressure rate; this year, they've fallen to 23rd in sacks. That means Winston should have time to operate, as he did against the Giants. But, expect to see plenty of Taysom Hill late, as he's the hammer to come in and end games for the Saints – he's less likely to turn the ball over than Winston.

PICK: New Orleans (-2 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points

Three-team, seven-point TEASER at FOX Bet

New England -10 to -3

It wouldn't surprise me if this were close because the Texans have nowhere to go but up, and the Patriots may be emotionally spent off the "Tom Brady game."

Even if you cancel the narratives - teams off a shutout and Bill Belichick vs. a rookie QB – it's still difficult to envision the Patriots blowing this one.

New England will run, run, and run some more, and probably hang on for a 20-14 win.

Cleveland +2 to +9

Cleveland was one of my favorite sides this week until the Baker Mayfield injury news. I thought his struggles last week were more attributed to being without Jarvis Landry than anything. Still, the shoulder injury is troubling, especially now that you have to face an aggressive Chargers defense that ranks sixth in pressure rate despite being near the league's bottom in blitz percentage.

The Chargers' issue in this game will be stopping the run – they are 25th in run defensive efficiency.

Dallas -7 to pick

The Cowboys have an MVP candidate and are a legit Super Bowl contender in a suddenly wide-open NFC, despite their weak defense.

If there's a "public underdog" on the board this week, it might be the Giants, as everyone saw them beat the Saints in overtime last week.

The New York road warrior status is impressive (18-3 ATS in the last 21 road games), but this smells like another easy Dallas victory for the only 4-0 ATS team in the NFL.

The Giants' defense has faced a slew of average QBs - Teddy Bridgewater, Heinicke, Matt Ryan, and Winston. The step-up in class will be jarring.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.