National Football League

NFL odds: Why you should bet on the Chiefs, a three-team teaser and more

Updated Jan. 21, 2022 4:43 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The divisional round is considered the best weekend of the NFL season, as you get the best eight teams in football playing.

The only team you could argue should be here is the Dallas Cowboys, but their woefully inept performance last week put the kibosh on that.

The lines have barely budged this week, and the weather doesn't appear to be a factor, except frigid temperatures in Green Bay, which we'll get to shortly.

Between the picks in this space and FOX Bet Live during the week, it was a very successful Wild Card Weekend, capped with a 3-0 on prop bets from Sunday's show. As for the weekend as a whole, favorites went 5-1 against the spread (ATS).

Here's a look at my best bets for this weekend, with odds via FOX Bet.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

If you've bet against Tom Brady in the divisional round of the playoffs recently, you've lost a lot of money. The G.O.A.T. is 9-0 in the divisional round, with his last loss coming against the Jets — and Mark Sanchez! — in 2011. But the Bucs are by far the most beat-up team of the eight remaining, and offensively, they're just not the team they were last postseason or even in October.

If their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, cannot go (he's been in a walking boot all week), Brady may take a pounding from the Rams' nasty front four. The Tampa offensive line collapsed after Wirfs went out last week, and Brady was sacked four times by Philadelphia. The Rams will get more pressure.

L.A. pressured Brady on 26.7% of his drop-backs in the first meeting — the highest rate he's faced all season. Expect the Rams to have Jalen Ramsey follow Mike Evans — hopefully, the Rams learned their lesson in the playoffs last year against Davante Adams — and dare Brady to beat them anywhere else.

Gronk will get his, and maybe Gio Bernard has a big game out of the backfield, but the Rams will be the best defense Tampa has faced in months. The Bucs faced the 31st rated schedule of opposing defenses this season, and the last Top 10 defense they faced was the Saints, who shut them out.

The Rams need to rely on Matthew Stafford for the Rams to cover or win. The fresh and punishing game of Cam Akers may have some success against the fast Tampa front seven, as the run defense isn't as stout as it was last year. Don't use the Philly game as a proxy — the Eagles didn't have a quarterback or receivers to strike fear into that defense.

But ultimately, this game will come down to why Sean McVay went out and got Stafford. Todd Bowles loves to blitz — 40% and the highest rate in the league. But Matt Stafford has 14 touchdowns and one interception when blitzed this season. The Rams dominated the earlier meeting through the air, as Stafford was 27-38 for 343 yards and four touchdowns. The Rams led by more than 14 for the final 22 minutes of the game.

If you don't trust Matt Stafford, then the Rams are not for you. L.A. is the side if you trust the matchups and toss out the Stafford narrative.

PICK: Rams (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

* If the line is anything less, bet them on the moneyline

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Loved Buffalo last week. It was nice to be on the right side and have an easy winner before the first half was complete. This game, however, is a much different animal.

First, let's toss out any sweeping judgments you have based on Buffalo's win over K.C. earlier this season in the monsoon. It's impressive, yes, but the Chiefs were in free fall and missing their most important defensive player (Chris Jones) and playing their worst defensive player, who has since been reduced to a reserve role (Daniel Sorensen).

Josh Allen picked on Sorensen, who had his second-worst game of the season per Pro Football Focus, giving up 114 yards. He lined up defending slot receivers 14 times and got torched by Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Dawson Knox. Sorensen's snaps have been cut in half, and third-year pro Juan Thornhill is back in the secondary.

Meanwhile, the Bills' secondary is the biggest question in this game. Since losing All-Pro CB Tre'Davious White, Buffalo has only been tested by one quarterback...Tom Brady. He lit them up: 363 yards and two TDs and 7.9 yards per attempt. Mahomes and Reid will be sure to take advantage.

It's worth monitoring props for Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle. Theoretically, the Bills are built to contain Travis Kelce, with a good coverage LB (Matt Milano) and two excellent safeties (Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde). Kelce had 12 catches for 118 yards and two TDs in last year's playoff game.

Recency bias applies to Buffalo. If you subscribe to the "what have you done for me lately?" narrative, look at the Bills' last five wins: two against a rookie quarterback (Mac Jones), plus Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson and Cam Newton (the last three at home as double-digit favorites). Putting up 47 points and not punting against the Patriots' defense last week was obviously impressive. But sample size alert! Teams that scored 45 points or more during Wild Card Weekend since 2000 are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS the following week. The thought process is that the public will load up on the team that just dominated someone, meaning the line is inflated and said team doesn't deliver again. The Chiefs not giving a field goal at home with Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes feels disrespectful, despite Buffalo's good game last week.

The Chiefs looked significantly more dynamic at running back last week with Jerick McKinnon in for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He had 18 touches for 142 yards and a TD. The same way Cam Akers looked fresh and dynamic for the Rams, it'll be interesting to see how K.C. utilizes McKinnon even with CEH returning from injury.

First to 35 points wins? This feels like a 38-27 type of game. Give me the Chiefs to reach their fourth straight AFC title game.

PICK: Kansas City (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points

Three-team, 6.5-point Teaser (+135 at FOX Bet)

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

Packers teased from -6 to +.5

The Jimmy Garoppolo injury makes this a difficult handicap, but it feels like too many points on the surface. If you trust the season-long advanced metrics, the 49ers have been better. DVOA has the 49ers as the sixth most efficient team in the NFL on a down-to-down basis; the Packers ninth. S.F. is second in net yards per play, the Packers eighth.

When Jimmy G. is at QB, Kyle Shanahan has gotten the better of Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers. The Niners won 37-8 and 37-20 during the run to the Super Bowl and lost a 30-28 nail-biter this season due to Aaron Rodger's heroics. Despite this being their third road game in a row, the 49ers are built to keep it close and should.

But, Garoppolo has never started a game in temperatures below 40 degrees, and it's forecasted to be single digits at Lambeau Saturday night.

Rodgers gets his first win over the 49ers in the playoffs (0-3).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

Titans teased from -3.5 to +3

I bet the Titans at -3 earlier in the week, but that number is gone now. The Titans have routinely played up to their opponents (Buffalo, K.C., Rams, 49ers) or down to their opponents (Jets, Texans, Steelers). And they have six wins by a field goal or less. Of course, we haven't seen the Titans this healthy in two months, which could explain the losses to the Texans and Steelers.

Combine Derrick Henry's return, plus the bye week, and there's a chance of rust early from Tennessee. But Mike Vrabel has a massive coaching advantage here, and the stat everyone is talking about this week is how Vrabel, when he has more than nine days of rest, is 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS. If you dig deeper, a lot of that may be against the worst division in football (AFC South).

The key numbers to tease through are 7 and 3, which would give you an incentive to take the Bengals. But there's certainly a scenario where a young QB gets blown out in his first playoff road start, so I'll take 3 points.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Bills teased from +1.5 to +8

It'll be a surprise if this game isn't close. Despite the highest total of the postseason so far, the familiarity here — the third meeting in the last 12 months — could lead to a tight one as the efficient offenses roll.

Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are the only QBs to dice up the Chiefs in the last nine games, and Allen is more than capable of the same.

JMAC's Teaser

Packers +.5
Titans +3
Bills +8

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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