NFL odds: Bet on the Detroit Lions? How past Hard Knocks teams have fared
To echo Jay-Z, or Annie the Musical if you prefer originals, "it's a hard knock life." And the Detroit Lions are getting a piece of that life as they are the latest NFL squad to be featured on HBO's Hard Knocks docuseries.
But what does this mean for Detroit fans and, more importantly, bettors?
Should Lions' faithful expect their team to meet the moment and somehow leverage the experience of being under the microscope of HBO's training-camp cameras into a winning season next year? Are bettors anticipating getting more bang for their buck when wagering on Detroit now that the world will watch them as Hard Knocks' featured squad?
Let's break down how previous teams that were featured on the show did from a betting perspective.
According to FOX Sports Research, when it comes to covering against the spread (ATS), teams that were showcased on the gritty, behind-the-scenes series have gone 150-134-6 ATS the season in which their franchise is featured on the show. That's a cover rate of 51.7%.
The Dallas Cowboys, for example, have been on three different seasons of Hard Knocks. In 2002, they were 8-8 ATS and 7-9 ATS in 2008. In 2021, though, Dallas was 13-4 ATS. In 2020, the Rams and the Chargers were both featured on the program and both went 9-7 ATS. The 2019 Raiders went 8-8 in that category. So there hasn't really been an advantage for featured teams, at least when it comes to betting against the number.
For Lions fans whose fingers are crossed that appearing on the series will bring the team luck in 2022, that outlook isn't particularly promising either. Since the show's 2001 debut, showcased squads have gone a combined 143-146-1 straight up (SU). The 2017 Buccaneers went 5-11 overall; the 2007 Chiefs went 4-12. And speaking of wins and losses, no featured team has ever won or even appeared in that season's Super Bowl.
But it's not all doom and gloom for Motor City fans. Despite Detroit posting a 3-13-1 overall record in 2021, the Lions did go 11-6 ATS last season, which was the League's third-best cover percentage.
Will Jared Goff & Co. buck the Hard Knocks trend? Or will they emulate the ill fate of folks who appeared on Eli and Petyon's ManningCast last season?
Bad fate or good fortune, when it comes to adjusting the lines for a team's season, oddsmakers don't factor in a squad's appearance on the show, according to FOX Bet commercial manager Jacob Blangsted-Barnor.
"We don’t really take it into account when setting lines," the bookmaker quipped. "Back in the day, there was a narrative that it was a distraction and that the Hard Knocks teams often underperformed.
"Nowadays, teams have cameras everywhere and every team has their own content they are filming all the time. The players are used to it, and I don’t think it makes much of a difference."
What does make a difference, though, is the popularity a team gains from the visibility that accompanies starring in an unscripted television show. The Internet Movie Database rates the show an 8.4 of 10, and clips from the show — like almost anything Baker Mayfield did in 2018 — make for viral social media fodder. Could that popularity drive bettors to wager a team they otherwise wouldn't?
According to the oddsmaker, yes and no.
"Potentially, you could argue we would take more bets on Detroit due to Hard Knocks, but I think that works more on a mid-level team that's pushing for the playoffs.
"The Lions won three games last year. They are so far away from being even a mid-level team, I’d be surprised if being on the show has that kind of huge betting effect."
Even if the impact on betting ends up being small, the Lions would certainly love to at least get more straight-up wins in 2022. After all, the team achieved its last winning record way back in 2017 when they went 9-7. Now we wait and see.
So are you going all-in on the Lions to turn it around next season? Or are you fading Detroit? Head over to FOX Bet to get your NFL bets in now!
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