National Football League

NFL odds: Betting divisional rivals, road warriors and NFC title trends

Updated Jan. 28, 2022 3:19 p.m. ET

Only three games remain in one of the most exciting NFL playoffs in recent memory. The first weekend delighted gamblers with the unveiling of the new Super Wild Card format that brought us a Monday night football game. The divisional round brought us four heart-stopping games that bettors will never forget.

And now, we are a few days away from a pair of conference championship games that provide tons of wagering opportunities.

When the San Francisco 49ers face the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday for the NFC conference championship at SoFi stadium, it will mark the third time the teams have played this season. The 49ers are looking for a clean sweep after winning the first two, while the Rams are hoping the third time's the charm as they attempt to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LVI.

In preparation of this California showdown that will be remembered for years to come, let's take a Pacific Coast dive into the profitable betting trends.

The first trend to examine is the obvious one, divisional rivals that have played each other in the playoffs, thereby marking the third match-up that season. Per FOX Sports Research, there have been 15 times since 2010 that divisional rivals have met in the playoffs. Out of those 15 meetings, the only time a team won all three games straight up (SU) was in 2017 when the New Orleans Saints defeated the Carolina Panthers at home. Additionally, the only time a team won all three games against the spread (ATS) was in 2013 when the Seattle Seahawks covered against the San Francisco 49ers in the conference championship.

Applying that trend for Sunday’s matchup, the 49ers are not only 2-0 on the Rams SU so far this season, they are also 2-0 ATS since they were underdogs in both meetings. No team has been able to go 3-0 SU and ATS since 2010. The two times a team went into the playoff meeting up 2-0, they are 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU (2017 New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers, 2020 New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

If that wasn't enough, there is another huge trend that poses as an obstacle to their path, namely, road games. Specifically, San Francisco is looking to win their fourth consecutive game on the road. FOX Sports Research found that since 2003, teams that have played four consecutive road games have gone 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS.

So to sum up these first two trends, San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is looking to become not only the first team in 12 years to go 3-0 SU and ATS against a divisional rival, but also the first team in 19 years to win four consecutive road games. Sheesh!

However, it should be noted, Los Angeles has only been back in L.A. since 2016 and in SoFi since September 2020. Although SoFi is restricting ticket sales to locals, there is expected to be a sizable number of 49ers fans at this game. In fact, the Week 18 game against these teams in L.A. saw Matthew Stafford complaining that his home crowd was too pro S.F., as the Rams proceeded to blow a 17 point lead. Furthermore, since 2010, home teams in the playoff game of the divisional matchup have gone 6-9 ATS and 7-8 SU. Those numbers aren’t striking fear into the hearts of 49ers backers.

It is clear the 49ers are in prime position to make history this Sunday. Do you think they can strike gold? If so, dig into some plays over at Fox Bet and share in on the winnings.

Extra Tidbits:

Since 2000, QB-head coach duos making their first appearance (Stafford/Sean McVay) in a conference championship together are 27-21 ATS.
Shanahan is 7-3 SU and ATS against McVay as a head coach, including 6-2 ATS as a dog.
Over the last eight seasons, home teams in conference championships are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Hosts favored by fewer than seven points are 13-6 SU and 11-8 ATS in their past 19 tries. These games have gone over the total 11 times.
Matthew Stafford is 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU as a starter in the playoffs in his career.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 4-1 both ATS and SU as a starter in the playoffs in his career.
Rams are 3-7 ATS and 4-6 SU in conference championship games in the SB Era

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