National Football League

NFL odds: Buccaneers' late fourth-down play was bigger than you think

Updated Jan. 16, 2022 10:48 p.m. ET

One of the most beautiful things about betting on the NFL (or any sport) is that every single play matters — a lesson that was reinforced with resounding strength Sunday.

You see, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' decision to go for it on fourth down late in the fourth quarter, deep in Philadelphia Eagles territory, had huge ramifications for the total over/under.

That's because the total over/under for Sunday's wild-card game between the Bucs and Eagles closed at 46.5. For those who might be new to betting, that means that fans were wagering on whether both teams would score more or less than 46.5 total points combined.

And with 1:16 remaining in the fourth quarter and the Bucs at the Philadelphia 14, both teams had so far combined for 46 total points, as Tom Brady & Co. led 31-15. A chip-shot Tampa Bay field goal would have made the score 34-15, sending the total over the line of 46.5, with 49 total points combined by both teams.

Instead, the Bucs chose to go for it and failed, turning the ball over on downs as Giovani Bernard was stuffed for a loss on a run to the right side. And when the Eagles subsequently failed to march down the field, the under (barely) cashed.

Unfortunately, 76% of all total over/under bets at FOX Bet were on the over in this one. But that's how gambling works sometimes.

On the bright side, the Bucs easily covered the spread of 7.5 points (a number that was as high as 8.5 earlier in the week), winning by 16 — and over 66% of spread bets were on Tampa Bay. In fact, with the Bucs' win, favorites of more than 7 points are now 11-5 against the spread since 2005.

All in all, perhaps Sunday's results in Bucs-Eagles isn't that surprising. In the past four postseasons heading into this weekend, unders had cashed in 12 of 18 wild-card games, according to FOX Sports Research.

So, what's the best thing that you can do if you were one of those bettors who took a bad beat to start Sunday's action? Shake it off and get right back in the saddle.

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