National Football League

NFL odds: Chiefs over Bengals is the bet you need to make (and more)

Updated Dec. 30, 2021 2:52 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Week 17 is upon us! With 24 teams still fighting for a playoff berth, chaos awaits.

Let's jump into my best NFL bets, starting with the marquee game in Queen City (odds courtesy of FOX Bet).

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This bet is quite simple for me. You have a Super Bowl championship-caliber team playing their best ball against an upstart team who has yet to prove they can beat a playoff team.

The Bengals have feasted on the broken-down Ravens, the Broncos, Steelers, Raiders and Lions. What do all of these teams have in common? They all rank lower than Cincinnati in efficiency rankings.

On the flip side, the Bengals lost to the 49ers, Chargers, Browns and Packers — all teams ranked above Cincy in those same rankings. See a trend here?

So far this season, anytime the Bengals have gotten national praise like they're getting this week, they've lost — L against the Jets and blown out by the Chargers.

On the other hand, the Chiefs look like a better version of their 2019 Super Bowl-winning squad. The similarities are eerie. The 2019 Chiefs lost to the Titans in Week 10 and then didn't lose again for the rest of the season. During those final six games of the regular season, their defense allowed just 11.5 points per game, while the offense was difficult to slow down.

This season, the Chiefs lost to the Titans in Week 7 and have not lost since. In the eight games since that loss to Tennessee, the Chiefs defense has allowed only 12.8 points per game, with the high watermark of 28 against the Chargers. People forget the Kansas City defense was missing three starters on the COVID-19 list. And, the offense has finally found its rhythm as well, scoring 48, 34 and 36 points over the last three weeks.

This season, the Bengals' offense has lit up the poor defenses they have faced, and they've gone against plenty of them. Quarterback Joe Burrow has faced the easiest schedule of pass defenses in the NFL, and he's taken advantage.

Case in point, Cincinnati scored 41 points against a Baltimore secondary playing fourth-string cornerbacks because of injury. But, the Bengals scored 22, 23 and 15 points in their previous three games, playing pass defenses that aren't better than the Chiefs' 13th ranked pass defense.

The Bengals' offensive line is brutal, especially inside, which leads to Burrow getting hit hard. Not good news when facing the Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, who ranks fourth in the NFL in pressures since Week 8.

The Bengals will try rushing the ball on the Chiefs because everyone tries to do it. But, it works until it doesn't because coaches get impatient trying to keep up with the Chiefs scoring machine. Cincinnati won't be able to keep up in this one.

I don't believe the Bengals are ready for this moment, so I'll take the Chiefs on the road to win and cover.

PICK: Chiefs (-5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5 points

Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Remarkably, the Falcons have won seven games despite being ranked 32nd in DVOA and negative 122 in points differential. Now Atlanta heads to cold and windy Buffalo, where it appears quarterback Josh Allen is back on track.

Buffalo has dominated weaker opponents when winning this season. Against poor teams, the Bills have won every game by at least 12 points, often winning by more than 15 points.

Buffalo's defense ranks first in DVOA and will harass Matt Ryan for all four quarters.

Once again, I fail to see how the Falcons defense, which does nothing well, will shut down a Bills offense that gets multiple starters off the COVID-19 list this week.

I like the Bills here in a blowout.

PICK: Bills (-14 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 14 points

Two-team, 6.5-point Teaser at FOX Bet

Green Bay Packers teased from -7 to -.5

Matt LaFleur has not lost a regular-season game after November in three seasons, and that won't change with the rival Vikings coming to town.

The Packers have been lackadaisical at the end of their last two games to make the winning margin closer than it needed to be, so the teaser number here is perfect.

Aaron Rodgers is lethal in division games, covering over 65% of them, while his opponent Kirk Cousins is pathetic in primetime spots, losing 17 of the 27 he's played.

The Packers are getting healthier and welcoming players back to the lineup while the Vikings just put Adam Thielen on injured reserve and might be without Dalvin Cook again. Give me the Packers to just win.

Chicago Bears teased from -6 to +.5

The Chicago Bears are hosting the Giants in a game of two teams racing to the finish line of seasons that did not meet expectations. However, one group is still fighting hard, while the other has quit.

The Bears just went to Seattle and had a come-from-behind victory against the Seahawks with Nick Foles as their quarterback. Foles or Andy Dalton will start at QB for Chicago on Sunday, but it doesn't matter to me because the Giants have quit with a capital Q.

New York has lost four games in a row by no less than 11 points and will be starting either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm at quarterback. Not great.

The Giants haven't won a single game on the road this season, and I'm not sure how that changes this weekend. NYG has been the worst team in the NFL over the last four seasons. Give me the Bears on the teaser number.

Geoff's Teaser

Packers -.5
Bears +.5

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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