National Football League

NFL odds: Deshaun Watson suspension moves Browns' Super Bowl odds

Updated Aug. 19, 2022 12:05 p.m. ET

Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns has been suspended 11 games and fined $5 million for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy based on allegations of sexual misconduct.

After initially being suspended for six games, the new ruling comes in response to the league appealing for greater disciplinary action. From a gambling perspective, the Browns have seen various shifts in their win total and Super Bowl odds. Let's dive in.

According to FOX Bet, Cleveland has now moved from -145 to +135 to make the playoffs. Their win total was originally 9.5 with -110 odds for both the over and under but has now dropped to 8.5 while heavily favoring the under at -175 (+135 for over).

The odds to win the AFC North also changed at FOX Bet. The Baltimore Ravens went from +175 to +145 (favorites); the Cincinnati Bengals dropped from +190 to +175; the Browns moved from +275 to +375. The Pittsburgh Steelers' odds remained at +850.

Cleveland's odds to win the AFC also lengthened from +1600 to +1800.

When it comes to winning it all, the Browns' Super Bowl odds were impacted the most. When the Browns signed Watson on March 18, their title odds shrunk from +3000 to +1400 across multiple sportsbooks. However, after his initial suspension of six games was announced, the odds jumped back up to +2000. With the appeal officially solidifying his suspension at 11 games, the Browns are now all the way up to +3000 to win the Super Bowl per Tom Gamble, Sportsbook Director at Borgata Sportsbook.

"The Browns winning their division was always going to be a long shot with Watson missing any sort of significant time," Gable explained. "Now with him out for 11 games, the road to get to the playoffs just got a lot steeper so their odds to win it all get a little longer."

Jacoby Brissett will likely be the starter until Watson returns. In 37 career starts, he is 19-16-2 against the spread (ATS) and 14-23 straight up (SU). Brissett started five games last year and went 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU for the Miami Dolphins.

That being said, those odds could change again should the Browns make a move at quarterback.

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been the subject of many trade proposals with the 49ers' announcement to shift focus to Trey Lance. The eight-year veteran has made 47 regular season starts, going 26-19-2 ATS and 33-14 SU in those games. In the postseason, Garoppolo is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU with two NFC Championship Game appearances and one trip to the Super Bowl.

During Watson's 11-game suspension, the Browns play each divisional opponent once and have notable matchups against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. His first game back will be Week 13 against his former team, the Houston Texans.

In those final six games, the Browns only face two playoff teams from last season. Per The Athletic, Cleveland's strength of schedule is .495, which ranks T-17th hardest in the NFL.

The 11-game suspension allows Watson to play in six games, which is the minimum number needed to accrue a season. If the suspension had been longer, Cleveland would only have to pay $1 million in base salary, rather than $43 million for Watson in 2023.