National Football League

NFL odds Week 6: Fade the Boys, watch the Jets go Over, other best bets

Updated Oct. 19, 2022 11:23 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We are onto Week 6! One big point we have to bring up from last week is that the refs have taken roughing the passer penalties to new levels. I know we need to protect the signal callers, but enough is enough.

And speaking of quarterbacks, we are going to continue to ride the hot hand of Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings for at least one more week.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my best bets for Week 6 (with odds via FOX Bet)!

Bills at Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 against Josh Allen, with the lone loss being a 38-20 beat down at home a year ago. The Bills come limping into this game, with massive injuries at key positions - especially on defense - although none of that mattered when they destroyed lowly Pittsburgh, 38-3 Sunday. But will key defensive cogs Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds return?

The Chiefs are on a short week, and started the divisional game against the Raiders Monday as if they were thinking about the Bills. But Mahomes brought KC back from a 17-0 deficit, and they escaped with a 30-29 victory.

As a result, the market opened Tuesday with Buffalo favored by 3 in KC. This is the first time Mahomes has been an underdog at home. The total has moved from 53.5 to 54, and as of Tuesday, it doesn’t seem as if weather will be a factor.

Expect the masses to bet Buffalo here, but I’ll pass on the side and take the over, with KC’s young defensive backs in trouble against Josh Allen and the explosive Bills offense. KC will keep up.

PICK: Over 54 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Jets at Packers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

What was a 9.5 point spread on the look ahead is down to 7 after a wacky week four in which the Jets hammered the Dolphins and the Packers blew a 17-3 lead to the Giants. But remember to largely ignore what you saw last week.

The Jets have the cornerbacks to play press coverage, and stack the box against the Packers run game. That being said, the QBs the Jets have faced this year: Lamar Jackson, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, and Skylar Thompson. They lost to the two good names on that list, albeit they had Joe Flacco under center.

Two teams went to London this season and returned home without a bye. Both of them looked lethargic defensively in the 2nd half - Minnesota let Justin Fields move the ball with ease and ditto the Saints and Geno Smith.

The Jets offense seems invigorated by starter Zach Wilson, and a bevy of offensive weapons allows them to balance the run and the pass, keeping defenses off balance. The Packers let the Patriots run all over them with a 3rd string QB under center (5.1 ypc, 167 yards), and the Giants did the same with Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones (4.0 ypc, 125 yards).

You never want to sell low on the Packers and buy high on the Jets, but if this moves off the seven, you’ll know it’s the big money professional side. Either way, I expect a lot of points in this one from both sides.

PICK: Over 46 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Vikings at Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

At 3-0 with a win over Buffalo, the Dolphins were the toast of the AFC.

It’s all gone downhill since losing Tua and his backup, Teddy Bridgewater, to concussions.

This line was a pick ‘em before the Dolphins got smoked by the Jets - now the Vikings are 3-point road favorites. Despite being 4-1, Minnesota is 1-3 against the spread as a favorite this season. And the Vikings have needed fourth-quarter rallies to beat the Lions, Saints and Bears over the last three weeks.

This handicap comes down to Miami’s shaky QB situation and their overall team health. Big money free agent signing Terron Armstead left the Jets game with an injury; they were also missing both starting cornerbacks. The latter is not ideal going against Justin Jefferson, who leads the NFL in receiving yards and 20+ yard receptions.

The Jets rushed for five TDs and 135 yards against Miami, which potentially bodes well for Dalvin Cook. Tough to pick Miami here until you know the QB situation. Ill lay the points early.

PICK: Vikings (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points

Should Dak Prescott start over Cooper Rush vs. Eagles, even if healthy? | UNDISPUTED

Skip Bayless explains why Dak should not start in Week 6, even if he was healthy.

Cowboys at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Anyone have Cooper Rush going 4-0 as a starter and 4-0 ATS?

He’s not taking Dak Prescott’s job, but he’s also not making mistakes and the Cowboys have turned back the clock, grinding teams with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, and riding one of the nastiest front seven defenses in the league. Micah Parsons is playing a modern-day Lawrence Taylor, tied for the league lead in sacks with 6, and is 2nd in the NFL in QB knockdowns with 11. Rush has been playing with the lead almost exclusively, and hasn’t trailed in the 4th quarter yet.

The Eagles have blown teams away in the first half, and are the highest scoring team in the 2nd quarter (18.4 ppg). It’ll be very telling to see Rush in a hostile environment, at night, against an elite defense. Back-to-back road games for Dallas, on opposite coasts, will be a challenge, especially facing a mobile QB. Daniel Jones averaged 8.8 yards per carry for the Giants against Dallas; Hurts leads all NFL QBs in carries with 68. Ultimately, it'll be too much for the Cowboys.

PICK: Eagles (-5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5 points:

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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