National Football League

NFL odds: How Alvin Kamara's injury impacts Cowboys-Saints lines

Updated Dec. 2, 2021 4:02 p.m. ET

As Dallas tries to complete its mission of securing the NFC East, the team might have just been handed their biggest gift of the holiday season. New Orleans — the Cowboys' Thursday Night Football opponent — will be missing Alvin Kamara, who happens to be the Saints' most explosive offensive player.

And the odds are on the move.

The biggest point spread moves are normally contingent upon the health of a team's starting quarterback. But, there are a few difference-makers at the running back position, with Kamara being one of them. The dynamic back has missed the last three games for the Saints, which all ended up being losses for Who Dat Nation.

The 2017 third-rounder out of Tennessee is tied for 10th in the League with 146 rushing attempts and has racked up 530 yards on the ground — and those are his stats despite missing the past three games with injury.

And tonight's matchup against the 7-4 Cowboys is just the kind of game in which the 5-6 Saints could've benefited from AK's utility. The Cowboys' defense holds opponents to an average of 22.7 points per game, and Dallas's defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is slated to return tonight, giving the away team an even bigger boost on D. And with defensive Rookie of the Month, linebacker Micah Parsons on that side of the ball, things could get rough for NO without their star running back.

Simply put, backup QB Taysom Hill and the Saints offense have their work cut out for them without the versatile Kamara.

And even though there's uncertainty surrounding the health of players and coaches for both teams, oddsmakers listed the visiting Cowboys as 6-point favorites at FOX Bet.

FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor noted that it's difficult to put out lines while adjusting for injuries and with players and coaches in COVID-19 protocol.

"It's not easy at all when there are plenty of factors with these tough games," Blangsted-Barnor stated. "But follow the money!"

The FOX Bet specialist went on to acknowledge that when teams have short weeks, sometimes it makes it easier to know who is in vs. out.

"If a player isn’t practicing Tuesday, it's unlikely he plays on Thursday," he said.

But in the case of Kamara, just how much is he impacting the odds for the big Thursday Night Football matchup?

"Looks like the line settled at 4.5 after the news came out that Amari Cooper was playing, but now it has jumped to 6," Blangsted-Barnor explained. "Some of that will be other injuries, but I would say Kamara is worth just over a point toward the spread, maybe 1.1-1.2 points."

Kamara is among the three running backs that have an actual effect on the odds.

"Derrick Henry moves his team’s line more, and it's hard to imagine Jonathan Taylor in current form isn’t up there, too," he explained. "I'd value them this way: Henry first, Taylor second and then Kamara."

Kamara's significance to the Saints' success is substantial — on offense and from a betting perspective.

FOX research finds that since 2017, the Saints are 39-28-1 against the spread in regular season games with Alvin Kamara in the lineup.

So who are you throwing your money on in tonight's much-anticipated Thursday Night Football showdown?

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