National Football League

NFL odds: How oddsmakers and sportsbooks set lines for the NFL Draft

Updated Apr. 26, 2022 11:45 a.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Uncertainty at the top of a professional sports draft is a boon for business because most people are more intrigued by what they don’t know.

And the NFL Draft hasn’t exactly been a soap opera the last two Aprils, with and Cincinnati and Jacksonville selecting surefire franchise quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, respectively.

Both players were costly to bet on, especially Lawrence, who was famously priced at -20000 ($20,000 wins $100) to be the first name announced by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.

This year’s draft has featured a revolving door of betting favorites, which makes everything a lot more interesting for bookmakers.

"The focus of the No. 1 pick kept changing," FOX Bet commercial manager Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "First, it was Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux as the betting favorite. Then, it was all about the offensive linemen prospects, and the Jaguars franchised Cam Robinson and signed Brandon Scherff. Everybody took a step back after that.

"Then, all the attention turned to the top edge guys and pass rushers. [Michigan defensive end] Aidan Hutchinson was a two-dollar favorite for a while. Now it’s [Georgia defensive end] Travon Walker leading the way over the last 36 hours.

"There are question marks about all these guys, which is great for betting.

"No one wants to bet on a market where a player is -20000 to be the No. 1 overall pick because that’s boring. As we get closer to Thursday, more and more information will get leaked. And we’ll make the necessary adjustments."

FOX Bet currently has Walker favored to be the first overall pick at -162, so a $16.20 bet wins you $10 and pays out $26.20.

ODDS TO GO No. 1 AT FOX BET*

Travon Walker -162
Aidan Hutchinson +150
Kayvon Thibodeaux +800
Ikem Ekwonu +900
Evan Neal +1400
Malik Willis +4000
Kyle Hamilton +7000
Ahmad Gardner +7000

*Odds as of 4/25/2022

A quarterback has been taken first overall in 10 of the last 13 drafts, but there hasn’t been much hype around Liberty’s Malik Willis (O/U 10.5), Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett (O/U 12.5) or Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder (O/U 28.5)

"It’s why Chicago traded up for Justin Fields last year," JBB explained. "It’s why San Francisco moved up to take Trey Lance. Those teams looked at this year’s draft class and felt it was necessary to make a move.

"But I feel like every time we have a draft like this when pundits say the quarterbacks will all slide, some team winds up overpaying and taking one of the guys in the Top 10. It just tends to happen that way."

Meanwhile, FOX Bet has first-round markets on cornerbacks (O/U 4.5), defensive players (15.5), offensive linemen (7.5), offensive players (16.5), quarterbacks (3.5), running backs (0.5), safeties (1.5), tight ends (0.5) and wide receivers (6.5).

I envision a world where FOX Bet is eventually dealing head-to-head matchup props on which player will be selected first. Pickett or Willis? Garrett Wilson or Drake London? Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu?

That should be one of the next steps as the space grows.

"We’ve definitely looked into it," JBB said. "Those would be interesting. That head-to-head between Neal and Ekwonu would probably be priced pretty evenly considering we have that market [first offensive lineman taken], but then what about the third guy against the fourth guy?

"We do have markets on whether a team will go offense or defense with its first pick. That’s always a trendy one. But we’re always thinking of other markets. The issue is usually that we can’t get markets approved in every state."

Any significant liabilities as of Monday night?

"Hutchinson to go No. 1 at bigger prices is one of our biggest liabilities," JBB reported. "We lose if Jacksonville ends up taking him. Remember, he’s a Michigan guy, and Michigan is a big market for us.

"Another liability is Sauce Gardner. At one point, we had his draft position at 10.5, and now we’re at 5.5 on him. That ‘Under’ has continued to creep, and that’s another one we’ll be looking to level."

Gardner’s ascension up mock drafts and betting boards is the perfect example of how information is king in a market like the NFL Draft. Same with Travon Walker’s rise to the betting favorite after an insane showing at the combine.

And when reliable information gets in the hands of a respected bettor, lookout. That’s when these draft lines tend to move drastically — when somebody with influence makes a bet, and the sportsbook uses that money to get to the right number.

Information trumps everything else.

"It’s a conversation I’ve had many times in the trading room," JBB explained. "Guys in the back will scout a player thoroughly and want to take a stand on him in the draft markets. ‘This guy is the best running back, and so on.’ And a trader may be right down the road, but that doesn’t really matter when you're taking the bets.

"It’s all about what the league and the teams think. We’re trying to predict what the teams are trying to do rather than predict who the best players will be. We take information from sources that we trust and lean on the bets that come in to help us shape our lines.

"When respected money comes in, everything tends to flip."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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