National Football League

NFL odds: How Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers' availability moved lines

Published Nov. 11, 2021 7:54 p.m. ET

From Russell Wilson dropping his pin to Aaron Rodgers dropping a bombshell, the superstar quarterbacks keep proving that both their teams succeed or fail based on their availability. This week was no different, and oddsmakers took notice.

As news broke that Wilson is coming back to start this week and that Rodgers might start in Sunday's Seattle Seahawks-Green Bay Packers showdown, the lines moved and reflected just how important these two QBs are to their respective franchises.

Rodgers missed Week 9 after a positive test landed him in COVID-19 protocol. Wilson has missed three weeks of action after suffering an injury to a finger on his throwing hand that required surgery.

In Rodgers' absence last week, Green Bay entered their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs as 7.5-point underdogs. The Pack lost 13-7 but covered the spread.

With Geno Smith starting at quarterback in Wilson's place, the Seahawks dropped games to Pittsburgh and New Orleans but eked out a win against struggling Jacksonville.

Now, both former Super Bowl MVPs are back under center. Or are they?

According to FOX Bet Trading Operations Manager Ben Conroy, trying to figure it all out is a "wild ride."

"We opened the game at Packers -5.5 with the assumption that Russ would be out for the game," Conroy said. "When the Wilson news broke, the line moved to -4, and we’ve seen continued action on the Seahawks that has pushed the line down to -3."

It's understandable how oddsmakers would move the line in Seattle's favor with that news as Wilson has thrown for 1,196 yards, ten touchdowns and one interception over five games. He's also rushed for 68 yards on the season. Essentially, he's the engine that makes the Seahawks' offense go.

But what about Rodgers and his impact on this game's spread? Keep in mind, his status won't be updated until, at the absolute earliest, the day before kickoff. We saw last week just how valuable AR is to the spread.

The FOX Bet bookmaker shared his thoughts.

"With the uncertainty around Rodgers starting, we’re seeing the line oscillate between Green Bay -3 and -4 based on customer opinion," the oddsmaker explained. "At this point, Rodgers is baked in to start until we get any news on Sunday.

"Fortunately, with a veteran quarterback, they can miss a few practices, and as long as they have the mental reps, you can be confident in him starting."

Just as Russ keeps the Seahawks afloat, Rodgers' presence is integral to Green Bay. The 7-2 Packers are first in the NFC North, and FOX Bet currently lists them at +1000 to win the Super Bowl (a $10 bet right now on the Packers would win you $110.00 total).

Will the Seahawks, with Wilson at the helm, turn around what's left of their season this week with a win against Green Bay? Or will a recuperated Rodgers be too much for Seattle's defense?

Keep an eye on the point spread, as it will be a good indicator of whether both superstar quarterbacks will suit up for this huge NFC matchup.

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