National Football League

NFL odds: How sharps are betting Dolphins-Bills; Big bet on Ohio State-Georgia

Published Dec. 15, 2022 12:29 p.m. ET

More than just Christmas makes this the most wonderful time of the year. It’s more football, thanks to bowl season and the NFL expanding its schedule to include Saturday games.

And on the NFL Week 15 odds board, one of the more appealing matchups is in prime time on Saturday night.

So let’s dive into the Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills clash and other noteworthy football betting nuggets heading toward the weekend.

Tyreek Hill explains why he left the Chiefs for Dolphins

Nick Wright, Greg Jennings and Kevin Wildes discuss Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill explaining his departure from the Kansas City Chiefs.

Total Tumbles from Frigid Forecast

Miami is in the midst of a wicked three-game road trip. The Dolphins first had to hit the West Coast for back-to-back games against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers, both playoff contenders.

Miami lost both games and next gets punished with a trip to Buffalo, where several inches of snow may await the Dolphins for Saturday’s 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Oh, and it might be a little breezy, too, which does wonders for the wind chill.

Buffalo is a consensus 7-point favorite, but that’s not what’s gotten the attention so far.

"The total was the focus early in the week for sharp bettors," WynnBet senior trader John Manica said. "The weather report in Buffalo this week looks typical for December – horrible. The opening number was 47.5. Our place opened 46. The number began to cascade on Monday, all the way down to 42. We took a few bets during the move, but we knew something was up. So we protected the Under the best that we could.

"I took the first notable resistance bet on Over 42 [Wednesday], and not more than 10 minutes later, another whack on Under 42.5."

So WynnBet found the pinch point for sharp players on both sides of this total. Manica said a big decline on a total is often revealing when it comes to betting the spread – though perhaps not in this case.

"Generally, this type of move on the total favors the +7.5 underdog," he said. "[But] Miami is in an atrocious scheduling spot after playing back-to-back road affairs on the West Coast. Now, the Dolphins come back to the east and make the trip to Buffalo. Everything favors Buffalo in that respect, counteracting the weather situation."

WynnBet opened the Bills -6.5 and quickly went to -7.5 Sunday night. The line has been at Buffalo -7 since Wednesday morning. The Bills are 10-3 straight up (SU)/6-6-1 against the spread (ATS), while Miami is 8-5 SU/6-7 ATS.

The Sharp Side

In my weekly back-and-forth with a seasoned Vegas sports bettor, two games caught his attention in the NFL Week 15 odds market. But, being a sharp bettor and all, he was on these matchups based on last week’s look-ahead lines.

"I took Chargers -1.5/-2/-2.5. The Titans’ defense is not what it used to be," he said.

Los Angeles (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) is a consensus 3-point favorite now for this 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. Tennessee (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) has dumped three in a row SU and ATS.

The other matchup this sharp bettor likes: The New York Giants vs. the Washington Commanders, in the Sunday night slot.

"I took Washington -3 (-120) on the look-ahead," he said while noting he still thinks there’s value in the current number of Commanders -4.5, as he’s a big believer in Washington at home. "I would lay up to -6."

In Week 14, the Giants (7-5-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) got pummeled by the Philadelphia Eagles 48-22, New York’s third loss in its last four games. Meanwhile, Washington (7-5 SU and ATS) is coming off its bye and, in a scheduling quirk, meets the Giants for the second straight game.

In Week 13, the Commanders and G-Men played to a 20-20 tie at MetLife Stadium, with New York covering as a 2.5-point home underdog. But Washington remains on a solid run of 6-1-1 SU and ATS.

Herd Hierarchy: Patriots crawl in, Cowboys creep up Colin's Top 10 of Week 15

Colin Cowherd shares his Top 10 squads heading into Week 15.

Play It Back

Manica also acknowledged the quirkiness of the Commanders-Giants matchup. And what he’s hearing from other oddsmakers has him echoing the aforementioned sharp bettors’ thoughts.

"This is a crazy anomaly in the NFL’s scheduling. Washington comes off the bye week and faces the Giants for the second time in a row," Manica said. "The Giants have been reeling of late. Some respectable number creators that I am in contact with believe that despite the 7-5-1 record they share with the Commanders, the Giants are nearly the worst team in the league, next to the Texans."

That said, it seems the public still wants to support New York at this point.

"We have taken all Giants money, as the game has oscillated between [Commanders] -4.5 and -5," Manica said. "The public sees two teams who just tied each other two weeks back, but the direction of the two squads is clear. The Commanders are moving in the right direction, and the Giants are not. We will need the Commanders to cover what appears to be a generous spread, and we are OK with that."

Is it fair to compare Joe Burrow to Tom Brady ahead of Week 15's matchup?

Dave Helman weighs in on the quarterback comparison between Joe Burrow and Tom Brady ahead of Week 15’s matchup.

Bettors Bank on Bengals Beating Bucs

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to have a nightmare season, sitting at 6-7 SU and a meager 3-9-1 ATS. That’s tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the worst spread-covering mark in the NFL.

Yet at WynnBet, the Bucs are still the -340 favorite to win the dismal NFC South. The Carolina Panthers (5-8 SU/7-6 ATS) control their destiny but are +325 to overtake the Bucs. The two teams meet in Week 17 at Tampa.

Up next for Brady & Co., though, is a far bigger challenge in the Cincinnati Bengals. The defending AFC champs are arguably the hottest team in the league on the field and at the betting window. The Bengals (9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS) are 7-1 SU in their last eight games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 outings, sandwiching a pair of five-game ATS win streaks around one ATS setback.

On the flip side, the Bucs just got blasted by rookie QB Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, losing 35-7 on the road.

"The sentiment on Tampa Bay is low after the absolute beatdown it experienced at the hands of the Purdy-led 49ers," Manica said. "The Bengals head into this full of confidence and at a high point in their season. This is a typical spot where the public is going to jump on the Bengals, as most [bettors] have mentally left the Bucs for dead, even though they are on track to win the NFC South and make the playoffs as the No. 4 seed.

"We will certainly need the Bucs on Sunday, as this shapes up to have a lopsided ticket count. We currently have a 9/1 ratio on the Bengals compared to the Bucs," Manica continued "The sharps have not weighed in yet, but this is surely going to be a public opinion on the Bengals. The majority of bets that we have received were at the current price of -3.5. It did open less than a field goal, but after the Bengals’ win and the Bucs’ loss, it quickly corrected to the current number."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There’s not much so far this week in the way of reported bets on this weekend’s games. But looking ahead to the College Football Playoff semifinals, Caesars Sports had one of its customers plant a significant flag on the second matchup, between No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl.

The bettor put $110,000 on Ohio State +7. That wager actually came in shortly after the four-team field was announced, back on Dec. 4. The underdog Buckeyes moved to +6.5 shortly after that. Georgia has been a stable 6.5-point favorite ever since.

On the NFL front, Caesars noted a bettor putting faith in the aforementioned Carolina Panthers’ chances of winning the NFC South. The customer bet $10,000 at +430 for a potential payout of $43,000.

Regardless of who or what you bet on, keep it reasonable this holiday season. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, as I like to remind you. Enjoy the games this weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.