National Football League

NFL odds Week 6: How to bet Bills-Chiefs, pick

Updated Oct. 12, 2022 8:01 p.m. ET

The Buffalo Bills play at the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle of 4-1 NFL teams in a rematch of last season's epic AFC divisional round playoff game.

The Chiefs won the overtime thriller 42-36 after the lead changed hands three times in the final two minutes of regulation.

The Bills lead the all-time series 27-24-1 as the franchises were original members of the old American Football League (AFL).

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Sunday's matchup between the Bills and Chiefs — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).

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RELATED: Week 6 lines, odds

Bills at Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Bills -2.5 (Bills favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Bills -149 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.71 total); Chiefs +115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 53.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Research Team:

The Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.

The Bills have hit the Under in the Over/Under (O/U) four times in five games this season.

The Bills are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and 4-5 straight up (SU) against the Chiefs since 2010, with the Under in the O/U hitting five times.

The Chiefs are 2-3 ATS this season.

The Chiefs have hit the Over in the O/U three times in five games this season.

The Chiefs are 6-4-1 ATS and 6-5 straight up (SU) as 1- to 3-point underdogs under Andy Reid, with the Under in the O/U hitting eight times in those 11 games.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 against Josh Allen, with the lone loss being a 38-20 beat down at home a year ago. The Bills come limping into this game, with massive injuries at key positions - especially on defense - although none of that mattered when they destroyed lowly Pittsburgh, 38-3 Sunday. But will key defensive cogs Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds return?

The Chiefs are on a short week, and started the divisional game against the Raiders Monday as if they were thinking about the Bills. But Mahomes brought KC back from a 17-0 deficit, and they escaped with a 30-29 victory.

As a result, the market opened Tuesday with Buffalo favored by 3 in KC. This is the first time Mahomes has been an underdog at home. The total has moved from 53.5 to 54, and as of Tuesday, it doesn’t seem as if weather will be a factor.

Expect the masses to bet Buffalo here, but I’ll pass on the side and take the over, with KC’s young defensive backs in trouble against Josh Allen and the explosive Bills offense. KC will keep up.

PICK: Over 54 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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