National Football League

NFL odds Week 4: How to bet Broncos-Raiders, pick

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 2:38 p.m. ET

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The Las Vegas Raiders will take a four-game winning streak over the Denver Broncos into Sunday's AFC West Division showdown in Nevada.

The Raiders (0-3) own a 69-54-2 edge over the Broncos (2-1) in one of the NFL's most storied rivalries, which dates back to 1960. 

Can the Raiders get back in the win column?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Broncos-Raiders game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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Broncos @ Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Raiders -2.5 (Raiders favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Broncos cover)
Moneyline: Raiders -149 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.71 total); Broncos +115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

The Broncos are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their past 10 games against AFC West opponents.

Denver is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven games.

The Broncos have hit the under in the over/under (O/U) nine times in their past 11 games against the Raiders.

The Raiders are 8-1 ATS in their past nine games against the Broncos.

Las Vegas has hit the under in the O/U the past five home games against the Broncos.

The Raiders have hit the over in the O/U 12 times in their past 18 home games.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

The Raiders stink, Josh McDaniels has already been called into a glass office by the team's owner, and the Derek Carr-Davante Adams connection has been sputtering since a strong opener.

Denver's defense has given up just 36 points in three games. So why has there been a flood of Raiders money all week, pushing this from -1.5 to -3?

The Raiders have won four straight against Denver, but none of those were with Josh McDaniels or against Russell Wilson.
Beware of betting on this ghastly Raiders' secondary and putrid offensive line. Vegas’ offensive line will get steamrolled by Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb, and Denver’s offense finally seems primed for a breakout game against a defense that let Ryan Tannehill average 9.1 yards per attempt last week.

I can see the Raiders emptying the tank here with a game in K.C. on deck and the possibility of an 0-5 start. The market’s moving against me, but I’ll side with the Broncos in this spot.

PICK: Broncos (+3 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Insights via FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

So far, Denver’s offense has faced the defenses of the Seahawks, Texans and 49ers. The only good defense in that bunch is the 49ers. 

Let’s start with Russell Wilson vs. pressure.  

He is the second most sensitive quarterback to pressure this year, behind Joe Burrow.

On early downs, look at these splits:

When not pressured: 

+0.21 EPA/att (#8)

When pressured: 

-0.66 EPA/att (#29)

The Raiders have been solid at applying pressure, unlike the Seahawks or Texans, two of Wilson’s prior three opponents.

On all downs in the first three quarters, the Raiders have gotten pressure at a 33% rate, No. 7 in the NFL. The Texans and Seahawks rank No. 20 and No. 21, respectively.

Where the Raiders pressure rate really stands out is on third down, where they’ve gotten pressure at the third highest rate.

That will be massive because this Seahawks offense has been terrible on early downs but has found a way to be outstanding on third down to stay on the field.

Early down success is predictive of future success.  

Third downs are not.

And the Broncos have been the worst offense in the NFL on early downs, No. 32 in success rate. But they have the No. 11 success rate on third downs.  

It’s completely unsustainable.

Denver is averaging 7.7 yards-to-go on third down.

That’s fifth worst in the NFL, barely ahead of the Chicago Bears.

This rivalry has been a low-scoring affair over the years. Nine of the last 11 games have gone under the total. And the last five games the Broncos have played on the road against the Raiders have gone under the total, with Denver failing to score more than 16 points in any game.

This is yet another game I’d look to the Under.

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

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