National Football League

NFL odds: How Trey Lance's injury impacted 49ers' title, Week 3 odds

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:28 p.m. ET

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

When an NFL team loses its starting quarterback, it’s fairly normal for that team’s odds to take a significant hit in the betting markets.

It certainly happened last week to the Dallas Cowboys after Dak Prescott suffered a thumb injury requiring surgery. Stock tumbled on Dallas’ Super Bowl, NFC championship and division odds.

But sometimes, things don’t take a turn for the worse when the starter gets hurt. In Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers lost second-year QB Trey Lance to a broken ankle. Lance’s season is over.

So what happened to the 49ers’ odds?

Moving on up – slightly

Lance was injured early in the 49ers’ home game against the Seattle Seahawks. Fortunately, San Francisco had Jimmy Garoppolo – a successful starter who led the team to Super Bowl LIV after the 2019 season – waiting in the wings. Jimmy G helped the Niners roll to a 27-7 victory over Seattle.

Not many teams can boast such an experienced backup, and the odds market reflected that. Before Lance’s injury, the 49ers' odds to win the Super Bowl at Caesars Sports were +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total). Literally shortly after Garoppolo entered the game, Caesars tweeted those odds improved to +2200. The Niners now sit at +2000 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Caesars and FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $200).

FOX Bet Trading Operations Senior Manager Dylan Brossman also indicated positive shifts in both the Conference and Division odds.

"San Francisco’s Conference (+1000 > +850) and Division (+185 > +165) odds have shortened slightly at FOX Bet after the Week 2 win and Lance injury," Brossman stated.

Further, in the NFL Week 3 odds market, San Fran opened Sunday as a 3-point underdog at Denver. On Monday, that line was down to a pick ‘em at Caesars and -1 at FOX Bet, so we did see a big impact there.

"Lance has never been fully in control of a team, and unfortunately for him, he got hurt before he could really prove if he could do it," Caesars assistant trading director Adam Pullen said in a Monday release. "Garoppolo, whether you think he’s a great quarterback or not, has led them to the Super Bowl. The stability is there with him, even if he doesn’t put up flashy numbers, and I think there’s more confidence with him than with Lance.

"It doesn’t happen very much, where you lose your so-called starting quarterback and your odds (improve) when the backup comes in. Garoppolo has done the job before, and he’s a seasoned veteran, so that’s why we thought their Super Bowl odds should be a little (better) compared to where they’d be with Lance for the season."

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Chris Broussard makes the case for why the Niners are better with Jimmy G.

Garoppolo for MVP!

The injury marks a huge change in Lance’s NFL MVP fortunes.

In May, Caesars Sports’ Max Meyer reported that Lance had drawn more money to win the MVP than Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers combined. Even just a month ago, Meyer stated that Lance had emerged as the third-most-popular NFL MVP bet, trailing only Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen and Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert.

Lance opened in the +20000 range (bet $10 to win $2,010 total) at multiple books back in February. That quickly got bet to +7500, then went to +6000 in March and +5000 in late July. He sat at +4000 at FOX Bet in early August. Lance was at +3000 at FOX Bet before suffering the broken ankle that ended his year just two games into the season.

Unfortunately for those bettors, those tickets can officially be ripped up. But, in an interesting twist, Garoppolo is now in the mix. Heading into the weekend, the backup QB was actually included among those in the NFL MVP odds market. But he was a 300-1 long shot.

Then came Sunday’s return to the lineup, and Jimmy G's MVP odds shortened to 200-1. Then, as Meyer noted on Monday, a New Jersey bettor put $1,000 on Garoppolo at 200-1. Should Garoppolo suddenly emerge and have a crazy good season, that bettor would win $200,000 – very unlikely.

Caesars has since moved Garoppolo’s NFL MVP odds to +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). That matches the current odds for new Broncos QB Russell Wilson.

While there is still a ton of season left, the 49ers and their backers are probably thankful they were able to bring Jimmy G back. Onto Week 3 we go!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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