National Football League

NFL odds: Packers new favorites to win NFC, Brady-Rodgers neck and neck for MVP

Updated Dec. 20, 2021 4:54 p.m. ET

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being shut out by the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football impacted the betting odds in a huge way. After four bad quarters, TB12's NFL MVP lead has shrunk, as has Tampa Bay's odds to win the NFC.

Waiting in the wings are Aaron Rodgers and the 11-3 Green Bay Packers. After Sunday's results, the Packers are the new favorites to win the NFC (+230 at FOX Bet), with Brady's 10-4 Buccaneers right on their heels (+260).

As for the NFL MVP, the odds indicate Brady is losing his grip on the award, with Rodgers closing the gap.

FOX Bet has Brady's MVP odds listed at +120 with Rodgers right on his tail at +200. No matter how you frame it — from the field, NFC standings and the odds — Brady and Rodgers are neck-and-neck in virtually every category.

And from a betting perspective, it's fascinating to watch this all play out since every win or loss recently has caused the lines to move for these two players and their respective teams.

Let's take a look at Rodgers and the Packers first. In his 16th season, the signal-caller has thrown for 3,487 yards, 30 touchdowns and only four interceptions. In a gutsy win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15, he went for 268 yards and three touchdowns to beat Baltimore 31-30. Going into Week 15, Green Bay's odds to win the NFC were +350.

After that Packers NFC North-clinching win and a loss by Brady and the Bucs on the south side of the NFC, the lines moved. The Pack took the top spot and their odds to win the NFC shortened to +230.

Going into the week, Tampa Bay's odds to win the NFC were +250. After the shocking loss, those odds lengthened to +260. But what happened to Brady against the Saints in Week 15 was an anomaly. The Saints were able to pitch the first shutout since 2006 against the 44-year-old Brady, defeating their division rivals 9-0.

Adding insult to injury, the Buccaneers were at home. After Tampa Bay stars Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were dinged up, Brady was held to 26-of-48 passing for 214 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. But despite the dismal showing against the Saints, Brady's still having a spectacular season. Zooming out a little, Brady has already thrown for 4,348 yards and 36 TDs this year.

To make matters worse, Godwin — one of Brady's favorite targets at wide receiver — is out for the season with a torn ACL.

FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor shared his insights on both teams after those two consequential contests.

"The Buccaneers had been the NFC favorites the whole way until this week." Blangsted-Barnor said. "But, as we have preached before, this comes down to that all-important (playoff) bye week that now looks likely to be going through Lambeau, which means advantage Green Bay."

But does the advantage also go to Rodgers when it comes to the MVP race? We turned back to Blangsted-Barnor for his thoughts on the MVP odds.

"While it seemed Brady was starting to run away with the MVP race, his demise came just as Rodgers had a huge game," the oddsmaker said. "It really feels like the player who messes up the least this season will win, and I’m starting to think that if Derrick Henry didn’t get hurt, he'd be the favorite by now.

"With the Packers now close to the No. 1 seed, it feels like Rodgers will win it again. However, Brady and the age narrative and how well he's performing at 44 will always give Tom an edge."

When it comes to their Super Bowl odds, it's the same story for Green Bay and Tampa Bay. The two squads have identical odds of +500 to win the Big Game.

As the season comes down to the wire, it's a virtual toss-up between which QB will win MVP and which of their teams will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If you are ready to make a wager on either futures bet, head over to FOX Bet.

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