Family, food, and football — it's a dynamic trio that most of us celebrate every year on Thanksgiving, made even better when you throw a little betting in the mix.
So this year, we wanted to give readers a breakdown on what to watch out for in each turkey day matchup from an odds and gambling perspective. Here’s what you need to know about this year’s games.
First, let's start with some overall trends for the day, where favorites have largely ruled. In fact, since 2000, favorites are 37-19 against the spread (ATS) on Thanksgiving (17-11 at home, 20-8 on road); since 2010, they are 19-13 ATS on Thanksgiving (9-10 at home, 10-3 on road).
As for the total? Since 2000, the over/under has been split at 28 apiece on Thanksgiving, and since 2010, the over has hit in 17 of 32 Thanksgiving games — meaning the books have done a solid job of being more or less on the money.
How will all of that play into this year's games? We're glad you asked.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (12:30 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX)
Thanksgiving Day starts off with the perennial NFC North matchup with the Chicago Bears traveling to play the Detroit Lions. No team has played more on turkey day than the Lions, having played on the holiday in all but six years since 1934. Unfortunately however, it hasn't been all glory for Detroit, as they've gone 6-15 straight up in such games and 9-12 ATS since 2000.
The Bears are no stranger to Thanksgiving games either, having played in 36 of them, the third most all-time. However, Chicago has only played in five Turkey day matchups since 2000, going 3-2 straight up and 2-3 ATS.
One other trend of note is the Lions' scoring in Thanksgiving games, as Detroit has hit the over in eight of its past 11 such matchups. This could be something to watch out for despite Chicago and Detroit each hitting the under in 7 of 10 games this season.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS)
The Dallas Cowboys are also frequent flyers in late November, having played in 53 Thanksgiving games, second most of any team. Since 2000, America’s team is 10-11 straight up in such games and 9-12 ATS in those matchups.
Dallas has the best win percentage of any team on Turkey day at 58.5% (min. 10 Thanksgiving games played). However, in more recent memory, Jerry Jones' team has struggled some, going 4-7 straight up and 2-9 ATS in turkey day games since 2010. The over has also hit in 12 of the last 21 such games.
Dallas leads the league in offensive yards per game (418.1) and is 8-2 ATS this season, but the Cowboys have not covered in two of their past three games, also losing outright to the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.
The Cowboys host the Las Vegas Raiders, who are playing in just their third Thanksgiving game since 2000. The Raiders actually lost to the Cowboys in the previous two games in 2013 and 2009, going 1-1 ATS with the over and under splitting as well.
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC)
Thursday’s primetime matchup will see the Buffalo Bills travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The two teams have combined to play in four Thanksgiving games since 2000, with the Saints going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS; the Bills covered and won versus the Cowboys in 2019.
While most of America will be a bit lethargic after consuming copious amounts of Thanksgiving goodies, the Bills and Saints could match that energy. Since 2000, the two have also combined to hit three unders in their four turkey day matchups since 2000.
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