National Football League

NFL odds: Bet on Tom Brady to run up the score against Patriots, more

Published Sep. 30, 2021 7:18 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

There is plenty of action on the board for this NFL weekend. We get a Tom Brady revenge game, a desperate team needing a road win and a chance to fade a bad coach. What more could we ask for?

But first, are the 3-0 Broncos for real? Let's jump into all of my best NFL Week 4 bets, with NFL odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-.5 at FOX Bet)

When I see this undefeated Denver team only favored by a point at home against Baltimore, I smell a fishy line and think Vegas knows something we don't, which is why I'd lean towards Baltimore.

However, I'm not sure how I can make that case. Yes, the Broncos' opponents are 0-9, having beaten the winless Giants, Jaguars, and Jets, but Denver dominated all three opponents, which is what good teams do against bad teams.

The Broncos are a high-efficiency team, ranking fifth in overall efficiency. Their quarterback play with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm might be the surprise of the season at that position so far. Bridgewater ranks top five in passer rating and completion percentage, and now he's going up against a Ravens defense that ranks 21st in defensive pass efficiency.

Baltimore did activate some injured defenders off the injured list for this game, but how effective can they be this weekend? I don't see those guys having much of an impact.

The Ravens' offense as a whole is struggling this season, and their issues against the Lions were concerning. Drops aside — and they were horrific drops — the offense isn't rushing the ball well with their offensive line not being what it was in previous seasons.

And, their aerial attack hasn't fared any better. Lamar Jackson is completing 60% of his passes, but the team currently ranks 21st in passing.

The Broncos' defense has been stout against the run and pass, only allowing 4.1 yards per play, which is second in the NFL. Again, they've played poor offenses, and the Ravens will be the best offense they've played to date, but they should be up for the task.

I don't expect Denver to hold Baltimore to 8 points, their average allowed so far, but the Broncos' defense will slow down the Ravens enough for Denver to win this game.

Lastly, the Ravens are a Chiefs fumble and a historic field goal from Justin Tucker away from being 0-3. This year's Baltimore team just isn't what they've been the previous three years, primarily because of their injuries.

PICK: Denver (-.5 at FOX Bet) to win by 1 or more points to cover the spread of -.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7 at FOX Bet) at New England Patriots

The sharp play here is taking the Patriots at home, getting 7 points, as everyone is hammering Tampa Bay in this matchup. It would be a hold-your-nose-and-wager game, as you'd be sitting there in disgust having to root for the New England offense to move the ball down the field. But, that's been an issue all season.

This Mac Jones-led offense is run first, with the goal being to get him into passing situations off play-action. Well, this Bucs' defense is the last team to attempt to establish the rush against as their defensive line presents enormous issues for any offensive line.

If the Patriots decide to pass the ball, which is a better game plan against Tampa Bay's defense, I'm not sure they can move the ball. Their passing attack does not attack down the field and, therefore, can't put pressure on a Buccaneers secondary that's dinged up.

On the other side of the ball, New England's defense is their strength. The Patriots defense ranks 8th in overall efficiency, being much better at defending the pass than the rush. When teams have attempted passes for 10+ yards, the Pats defense has allowed the lowest passer rating in the league. Tampa Bay has a balanced offense, which will allow them to attack via the rush if the passing attack isn't there.

At the end of the day, we all know I'm wagering on Tampa Bay in this spot for one reason: Tom Brady. When TB12 wants to make a statement, he will. The Bucs got embarrassed last weekend in Los Angeles, and now the legend is going back to New England, where he will surely break the passing record early in this game.

Brady will attempt to score, score, and continue to score to humiliate Bill Belichick. I've been in this spot before, playing against a team you felt scorned you. You want to make them feel like they made a mistake in letting you leave. That's how Brady will play this weekend.

PICK: Tampa Bay (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

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Seattle Seahawks (+3 at FOX Bet) at San Francisco 49ers

This game is a matchup of two evenly matched teams, but I'm siding with the Seahawks for two reasons — desperation and numbers.

Let's start with the desperate team. Seattle is 1-2 and in need of a win in the worst way. The Seahawks were up 30-16 at home in the 4th quarter against the Titans, only to lose in overtime. Last weekend they lost to Minnesota in a game that wasn't close in the second half.

Seattle is losing games in the second half because their offense can't score after 30 minutes. In three second halves plus one overtime, the Seahawks have just 13 total points. That's 62 points in the first half vs. 13 after the break.

On the surface, that goes on the coaching not being able to make adjustments and anticipate changes to the defense. The Seahawks know this and must adjust against the Niners. They have no choice, or they will be 1-3. They are hungry for a win, and I'll take this coaching staff and Russell Wilson with their backs against the wall.

Now the numbers. Wilson has started 147 games and has yet to lose three games in a row. Ever.

Russ is also 20-11-2 against the spread (ATS) as a road dog, and 65% ATS after a loss. Conversely, Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is only 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite. So I have the numbers on my side and a team that's in dire need of a win.

I'll take the points with the Seahawks. This team is too well-coached and has too much talent to lose three games in a row.

PICK: Seahawks (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4 at FOX Bet)

I get a chance to fade an awful coach who's getting public support? Sign me up.

I'm not a believer in Kliff Kingsbury, and nothing this season has changed that notion. The Cardinals should have lost to the Vikings, and they allowed the Jaguars to score on a kick-six with a field goal attempt that they shouldn't have attempted in the first place. Over his time in Arizona, Kingsbury has shown not to understand how to manage the clock in close games.

Kingsbury's shortcomings will be exploited this weekend against a well-coached team like the Rams. Sean McVay is an elite coach and has won all eight matchups against the Cardinals while covering seven of the eight.

This Los Angeles team looks completely reenergized with Matt Stafford leading the charge on offense. There's a vibe on a team that trusts their quarterback always to have their back. Those teams play looser, faster, and more aggressively all over the field. Which is exactly how the Rams are playing.

After dominating Tampa Bay on Sunday, I wonder if Los Angeles will have a slight letdown early in this game. I worry less about that with a veteran team, though.

Give me the Rams!

PICK: Rams (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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